DL's regional partnerships show signs of stress

[damnflyboy]

Mesa/Freedom makes the rag...ahem...the Atlanta Journal-Constitution


http://www.ajc.com/business/deltas-regional-carrier-partnerships-559215.html?sms_ss=email

 

[ePilot22]

Wait for it...





eP.

 

[skywav8r]

OK - I'll say it........Mesa Sux!!!

 

[filejw]

Old news, very old news.....

 

[no1pilot2000]

What is the future of regional airlines? Why does U.S. Airways have several regional airlines flying on their behalf?

The regional airline saga continues............

 

[damnflyboy]

It may be "old news", but it made the news.

no1pilot2000, here are my thoughts...as void as they may be.

The Legacies will do whatever it takes to compete in a world-wide market (i.e. Open Skies Agreement).

The whip-sawing of multiple regional carriers by the Legacies has in effect undermined the power of unions. For instance: Having 5 separate regional carriers as sub-contractors resurrects each as a virtual individual employee (union or not), thus an embedded dimension of free market competition.

The more people you have bid for the flying, the more competition for the flying...the less you have to pay in the end for that product. It's like Mexicans in a Home Depot parking lot. The more day-laborers you have, the more the hourly rate falls.

"If we pay you more for your skill, our airline will die and you will be without a job." Sound familiar, anyone?

Here's what I expect to happen:

Legacies will exclusively fly large capacity, long haul.

The Regionals who survived this economic downturn will consolidate and fly nationally under legacy colors, competing with Southwest/Airtran/Jetblue. Larger equipment flown by "regionals (now nationals)" will be decided by the airlines, shareholders, and the free market (not scope limits set by pilot contracts).


Does anyone have a brighter outlook? I'm a pessimist because all it takes is one carrier to get the ball rolling down $hi+'s hill. Unfortunately, the rest will have to follow.

 

[Jar Jar]

IMO it all depends on policy decisions made over the next 20 years.

The Gov't could go one way and approve all of the U.S. brand mega-mergers and slot swaps etc.. resulting in higher fares for Joe Public.

or

They could go the other, and Joe Public will retain his cheap fare but it will be on Air India from SEA-MCO.

 

[General Lee]

It may be "old news", but it made the news.

no1pilot2000, here are my thoughts...as void as they may be.

The Legacies will do whatever it takes to compete in a world-wide market (i.e. Open Skies Agreement).

The whip-sawing of multiple regional carriers by the Legacies has in effect undermined the power of unions. For instance: Having 5 separate regional carriers as sub-contractors resurrects each as a virtual individual employee (union or not), thus an embedded dimension of free market competition.

The more people you have bid for the flying, the more competition for the flying...the less you have to pay in the end for that product. It's like Mexicans in a Home Depot parking lot. The more day-laborers you have, the more the hourly rate falls.

"If we pay you more for your skill, our airline will die and you will be without a job." Sound familiar, anyone?

Here's what I expect to happen:

Legacies will exclusively fly large capacity, long haul.

The Regionals who survived this economic downturn will consolidate and fly nationally under legacy colors, competing with Southwest/Airtran/Jetblue. Larger equipment flown by "regionals (now nationals)" will be decided by the airlines, shareholders, and the free market (not scope limits set by pilot contracts).


Does anyone have a brighter outlook? I'm a pessimist because all it takes is one carrier to get the ball rolling down $hi+'s hill. Unfortunately, the rest will have to follow.

I don't agree with your "REGIONALS will fly all Domestic" krap. No, the pilots at the legacies will NOT allow any more scope erosion, unless a BK judge leads it. That is the only way for regionals to get anything larger than the current 76 seats at most legacies. Legacy pilots have pay rates for planes over 76 seats now. I don't know ANYONE that would give anymore Scope away. The pilots that would have done that just retired a few years ago, and they had been only flying INTL flights since before the RJs even started flying the domestic routes. They didn't even know what RJs were all about. Again, they are gone now.

Instead of wishing for larger planes, why don't you change gears and wish to get hired by a Major someday? Do you not want to give up your cushy left seat in an RJ? Did you not go to College? Do you have a lot of DWI's? What is your deal? If you don't have the above, then apply and try to get hired with a Major. Things will pick up eventually, and try not to be so pessimistic.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Erlanger]

BS. I don't agree with your "REGIONALS will fly all Domestic" krap. No, the pilots at the legacies will NOT allow any more scope erosion, unless a BK judge leads it. That is the only way for regionals to get anything larger than the current 76 seats at most legacies. Legacy pilots have pay rates for planes over 76 seats now. I don't know ANYONE that would give anymore Scope away. The pilots that would have done that just retired a few years ago, and they had been only flying INTL flights since before the RJs even started flying the domestic routes. They didn't even know what RJs were all about. Again, they are gone now. Sorry.

Instead of wishing for larger planes, why don't you change gears and wish to get hired by a Major someday? Do you not want to give up your cushy left seat in an RJ? Did you not go to College? Do you have a lot of DWI's? What is your deal? If you don't have the above, then apply and try to get hired with a Major. Things will pick up eventually.


Bye Bye--General Lee

So tell me General what your crystal ball says about Delta replacing those retiring over the next 18 years? Me thinks you've seen Delta at it's max. Delta will not be hiring one for one or better even with expanding routes. As pilots retire at the legacies, expect the regionals to somehow inherit more and more flying. Delta and other legacies will fly mostly int'l and transcon stuff. The 757 will be the smallest plane you'll have.

Delta Retirement Numbers

12,136 pilots

2010 - 3
2011 - 8
2012 - 19
2013 - 102
2014 - 162
2015 - 224
2016 - 301
2017 - 360
2018 - 456
2019 - 538
2020 - 624
2021 - 807
2022 - 860
2023 - 812
2024 - 810
2025 - 714
2026 - 618
2027 - 514
2028 - 499
2029 - 489
2030 - 524
2031 - 460
2032 - 372
2033 - 307
2034 - 223
2035 - 165
2036 - 160
2037 - 124
2038 - 103
2039 - 86
2040 - 85
2041 - 71
2042 - 66
2043 - 48
2044 - 31
2045 - 27
2046 - 10
2047 - 4
2048 - 1

 

[General Lee]

So tell me General what your crystal ball says about Delta replacing those retiring over the next 18 years? Me thinks you've seen Delta at it's max. Delta will not be hiring one for one or better even with expanding routes. As pilots retire at the legacies, expect the regionals to somehow inherit more and more flying. Delta and other legacies will fly mostly int'l and transcon stuff. The 757 will be the smallest plane you'll have.

Delta Retirement Numbers

12,136 pilots

2010 - 3
2011 - 8
2012 - 19
2013 - 102
2014 - 162
2015 - 224
2016 - 301
2017 - 360
2018 - 456
2019 - 538
2020 - 624
2021 - 807
2022 - 860
2023 - 812
2024 - 810
2025 - 714
2026 - 618
2027 - 514
2028 - 499
2029 - 489
2030 - 524
2031 - 460
2032 - 372
2033 - 307
2034 - 223
2035 - 165
2036 - 160
2037 - 124
2038 - 103
2039 - 86
2040 - 85
2041 - 71
2042 - 66
2043 - 48
2044 - 31
2045 - 27
2046 - 10
2047 - 4
2048 - 1

There will be unbelievable hiring. Just because people will leave, doesn't mean Dalpa will give stuff away (Scope). I understand that you are at SkyWest and don't understand how unions work, but it has to be NEGOTIATED. Why again would the 757 be the smallest plane at Delta? The company can't just do what they want, unlike at SkyWest. And you don't think DL will be hiring one for one? How do you know that again? Delta supposedly will be hiring 305 this year, and recent rumors state they will continue to hire for the next 3-4 years. There will probably be more flow throughs to assist with that, and the regionals will be the ones who can't keep enough experienced pilots. Regionals will then start to shrink, and FAA rule changes will make it harder for the Regionals to stay profitable, making layovers have a min of 10 hours (no more stand ups), hiring to have a min of 1500 hours or ATP, etc. None of that bodes well for the Regional industry, and the ATA is lobbying against the new changes now because they know it will hurt the Regionals. You can thank all of the families of the people who died on the Colgan crash for their persistance in getting the rules changed.

After I was hired in 96, almost 3000 pilots were hired in 4 years. Yes, some were furloughed after 9-11, but it proves an airline can hire that many in good times, and if 800 pilots retire each year for a few years, then DL will have to put the hiring mode in full swing. And again, everything has to be negotiated, and almost every pilot I know wouldn't give any more scope away, period. But, keep thinking and dreaming about it, and maybe it will come true someday (in your head).


Bye Bye--General Lee