DL Oct 8th

[FDJ2]

Re: FDJ12

lowecur, just as a matter of background, as of June 30th Delta owned 4 737-200s and leased 48, Delta leased 26 737-300s owned 71 737-800s with 61 firm orders, some of which can be changed to 600/700 orders, Delta has a fleet of 121 757s with options for 20 more, Delta owned 63 MD88s, leased 57 MD88s and owns 16 MD88s.

Now for some speculation, the MD88/90's will not be replaced by the new hundred seater which will be flown by the mainline, the 737-200s and 300s are gone, the 800's will stick around and grow. Song is currently scheduled to fly 36 757s out of a fleet of 121, but that will grow in number, but I doubt it will encompass the entire 757 fleet, perhaps about 50-60 airframes. Delta has already announced and is implementing it's Florida strategy and it is to replace the Express 737-200s with Song 757s and replace CMR with Chautauqua in MCO. There will be a significant 100 seater order and it quite possibly will not be the EMB, or the 717, which DAL would very much like to have become an orphan. The new order could very likely be the 600/700, due to the large cost savings associated with a large common fleet type and the ability to change existing 800 orders.

Of course this is all purely speculation, derived from a murky crystal ball and a few tossed chicken bones from my KFC dinner.

 

[MedFlyer]

I wouldn't get too excited about the meeting with management next week. I imagine the meeting is more for show than getting anything done. DALPA has every incentive to stall the talks for as long as possible to milk the current contract for all its worth.

As for the 100 seater, they would replace the 732 and maybe the 733. I certainly hope DL doesn't replace the MD88/90 with it as that would be a major cut in capacity. However, even with concessions, I don't see how DL can afford to be financing so many planes.

General,

Do you really think Song can expand to all 121 757's? I don't know if there are enough point to point routes out there that can fill a plane that big on a regular basis. Sure, during the peak months you can fill boatloads of 757's to Florida, but what about the off-peak months? Song's LF for Sept barely cleared 50%....that's pretty dismal. DL had better do more to market Song or it won't last long.

 

[jetblue320]

General,

Do you really think Song can expand to all 121 757's? I don't know if there are enough point to point routes out there that can fill a plane that big on a regular basis. Sure, during the peak months you can fill boatloads of 757's to Florida, but what about the off-peak months? Song's LF for Sept barely cleared 50%....that's pretty dismal. DL had better do more to market Song or it won't last long.

Wow, I thought the loads were higher than that? I mean, flying to ALL 3 NY airports and all.

General, just teasing you about all 3 airports but seriously, were the loads that low? And for what period, September? We all know that this is indeed a slow period across the board but 50% is not good for sure regardless.

 

[Dizel8]

"Mullin said its low-fare carrier, Song, launched earlier this year, was doing well, although it too had experienced a slowdown last month because it introduced more capacity.

"We introduced a tremendous amount of capacity in September during a low period, so our numbers might not be quite as good in September. But looking ahead, we'll bounce right back as the leisure markets open up in late October, November," he said.

The carrier would probably expand, but he did not expect it to be more than 10 percent of Delta, which has some 550 aircraft.

"I would see some expansion of it, but I think that Song being much more than 10 percent of Delta would be a stretch," he added."

General,

What is your take on these statements? Not trying to start a fight, just curious, after all, Song is intended to take away from jetBlue, but with Song being part of DAL, the numbers are not known. Numbers us "Moonies" would love to know, for obvious reasons

Thanks,

D8

 

[NYRANGERS]

ADVERTISING

I think a big part of the problem for Song is advertising, or better said....lack thereof. I can only assume that Delta is waiting for Song to get the IFE installed before they start a big ad campaign.

I am curious what the jetBlue loads were when they first started up. That might shed some light on the Song situation. Song grew fast with zero advertising.....I have seen some good American, Northwest and Frontier ads lately, maybe Delta and Song are next, who knows.

One of our recalls reported that management (JK) said that Airtran and jetBlue were getting a premium on some of our overlapping flights. According to JK, people assume that Airtran and JB have cheaper fares and many don't check the majors to compare. The question begs.......who's fault is that?

With regards to load factors, I think that a 100 seat jet will be a part of Song and Delta. You can't use a 757 to compete with the LCC's in all the markets they serve. I would assume a 100 seater with IFE will come to both Delta and Song.

Anyway, thanks for reading my ramblings. Hope everyone is doing well,

NYR

Opening night 10/10

 

[lowecur]

jetblue320

D. Neeleman was in Ft. Lauderdale yesterday lobbying for a second East/West runway. Environmentalist and homeowners are putting up a fight. He flat out told the city commissioners that if the runway was not approved, that any B6 expansion plans will go to Miami. Sounds like the Bahama's and Carribean are a big part of B6's plans for the 190's.

He also stated that B6 intends to operate from more than 1 NYC airport in the future. He's gonna need lots of luck to get landing slots and gate space at LaGuardia or Newark. It is my understanding the new gates out at the Long Island Airport are going to WN. I think he's planning for a U demise in the next few years.

 

[jetblue320]

Re: ADVERTISING

I think a big part of the problem for Song is advertising, or better said....lack thereof. I can only assume that Delta is waiting for Song to get the IFE installed before they start a big ad campaign.

I am curious what the jetBlue loads were when they first started up. That might shed some light on the Song situation. Song grew fast with zero advertising.....I have seen some good American, Northwest and Frontier ads lately, maybe Delta and Song are next, who knows.

If I recall correctly JB was real close to 80% + within the first few months. And, as a matter of fact, had a very small advertising budget/campaign for the first 2 years. We depended heavily on the normal processes of the press to provide us with "free" advertising, and it paid off.

Not trying to gloat, but our "low" period of September yielded a 90.3% loads factor. And in addition, yes, our fares are a bit higher than Song's.

Here's a funny one for you: I was in PBI last week at the Starbucks stand getting a cup (it is conviently located right across from the Song gates, smart move). A gentleman approached me (he was obviously a NY'er from his accent) and said "it's about time youz got some descent service outta heere". I told him that JB has been flying 4-5 flights a day out of PBI for a few years and asked him why he thought our service was less than good. He said as he touched my ID badge, "oh, sorry, I thought you were a Song Pilot". He went on to say that "Delter" has gone downhill and he wouldn't fly them if it was free (of course, I find THAT hard to believe) and he was pretty pleased that Song was doing flights from PBI for cheap fares. He also say he has converted back to "Delter" or "Song or whoever the he11 they are" because of the lower fares. He mentioned that he was die hard jetBlue but not only can he not get a seat because the planes are always full but that jetBlue's fares are higher. His bottom line: fares, pretty much the same bottom line as most NY'ers. Pretty typical in my opinion. Even if he hasn't really put the association of DL/Song together, who cares, he's on board.

So, that is why I am puzzled by your [Song's] low loads. Like Dizel8 said, not trying to pick a fight or start a side thread of anger, I was just curious. It seems to be working whether it is from advertising, or the DL name behind it, or whatever. I do doubt that it is from the presence of Vegetable Sushi, however. (Sorry General)



See ya

 

[lowecur]

medflyer

It really wouldn't be any different than it is now. DL would just be changing the livery on the 757 to Song. I look for Song to be the proprietary domestic market arm of DL in the next 7 to 8 years. I don't buy Leo's 10%. He's just catering to the unions before the contract talks.

 

[lowecur]

jetblue320

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I believe B6's LF's were 80% for Sept 03.

 

[MedFlyer]

Re: Re: ADVERTISING

Not trying to gloat, but our "low" period of September yielded a 90.3% loads factor. And in addition, yes, our fares are a bit higher than Song's.

Not to be picky, but your loads for Sept were 80.2% if you are referring to last month. That's still pretty impressive given the nature of September.

I really can't see Song expanding to all 121 757's. There just aren't enough routes to fill them....unless DL gets real ballsy and starts flying non-traditional routes like ORD-LAX or DTW-LAS. These are routes where DL isn't a major player on either end which would make it very difficult to suceed, but the volume is there.

Now if Song expands to a smaller plane (100 seater), then its a whole new ballgame. Of course, when you reach that point, you start to wonder what is the point of having regular Delta?

I would like to see some of Song's innovations on Delta planes, but I wouldn't like to see the Delta name completely replaced by Song.

 

[Heavy Set]

Just wait until Song is operating its 757s with the full entertainment package, the gourmet meals and the new uniforms/decor - it should attract more attention.

I am thinking the winter season ahead might be cold in the Northeast - plenty of potential passengers to take advantage of cheap fares out of all 3 NYC airports on their way down to Ft. Liquordale...

 

[lowecur]

NEWYORKRANGERS

I go to quite a few Panther games. Whenever the Rangers are in town, I think there are more fans for them than the Panthers. Such is the luck of having so many transplanted New Yorkers in South Florida.

Hopefully, both the Panthers and Rangers do better than the last few years.

 

[FDJ2]

Re: Re: ADVERTISING

So, that is why I am puzzled by your [Song's] low loads.

See ya

I think it's more a matter of rapidly introducing greater capacity, particularly in September. As you mentioned earlier, JBLU has always had a high load factor from the beginning, but JBLU did not introduce 36 199 seat jets in their first 36 weeks. Through June, Song had a load factor of about 70% and most analyst believe that it is off to a reasonable start. At the end of the day, Song will either succeed or fail, not based on this Septembers load factor, but on whether or not over the long term it is able to deliver on its promise of convenient, friendly and reliable service at a fair price with industry leading in-flight entertainment.

 

[jetblue320]

Correction

I apologize.....I was off by one month and 10%.

The 90.3% was August 03.

Dooohhhhh.


And yes, now I get it, it must have been the initial capacity. I forgot about that.

Thanks for the replies and answers.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Anyone know if Song is connected into the rest of the Delta network for marketing / connecting flights? For example, is it set up for Delta Connection to feed Song?

Is Song on a separate operating certificate?