Dl Makes $137m

[lowecur]

Good for Delta in being able to minimize the damage incurred by today's environment. But, a loss is a loss, cash related or value related. If my house loses 200,00 in value then sure, I agree my bank account is unchanged, but I am still out of luck when I go to buy a more expensive house. The gist of it is Delta is worth 1 billion less than it was last quarter. Call it what it is.

It's a paper loss, like depreciation and goodwill. It's all accounting and used on their tax returns. They'd be stupid not to take advantage of the rules. All the airline's will do the same thing as they need it.

imp:​

 

[spinproof]

If oil swings to $100 bbl after Oct 15th (my cutoff date for major hurricane damage in Gulf), then some of the hedges may be under water or a wash. In either case, oil at $100 bbl will help the industry at the end of 08 and all through 09. The key will be each airlines ability to coordinate a steep reduction in capacity and still keep their head above water.

It's amazing that a billionaire like Wilbur Ross invests $80M in India LCC - SpiceJet, but turns his nose up at airlines in this country. I think he wants to invest where labor is cheap. His reasoning is that oil is way overpriced and he sees little oil upside in this world financial environment.

If you want to invest in this industry here in the US, just wait until after 10/15/08, and place your bets on the probable survivors.....the ones that won't need a bailout.....as the Fed may just may not be able to help the airline industry and instead let foreigner's in the hen house.

imp: ​

Funny you mention Wilbur Ross I was thinking along similar lines yesterday. Wilbur is a very conservative investor and I was shocked by this event.

My only conclusion is he sees oil stabilizing soon. Thats big! Please may it be so.

 

[Copydat]

Pilots will be better off as a group if the weak airlines go out of business allowing better pricing power by the survivors. Then management can go after the passengers for revenue instead of employees for concessions.

Wow - If you find it so easy to dismiss your fellow pilots it makes me hope that your airline does fold so that I can keep my job.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Good luck to all of us. Karma's a bitch and I wouldn't wish a layoff or shutdown on anyone.

I did not wish a shutdown on anyone. Can't you read? I have good friends at AirTran and seriously considered going there myself.

I was much more sympathetic to AirTran until they fired their new hires. When that happened, I sent the memo to the partners in my side business and we made the decision corporately that our Company will no longer fly AirTran.

Would you feel better if I found quotes from Spirit and AirTran's management to post? The reality is that they have to raise fares to survive. SWA is so well hedged that they intend to continue to sell tickets for less than they would realistically cost and I admitted Delta is only posting an operating profit due to hedges.

We are all flying on one engine with the flaps stuck at 40 and the gear down.

$1 fares on Spirit. How can you defend that?

 

[PCL_128]

Congrats to DAL! Very impressive in this current environment.

 

[PCL_128]

The regulators need to realize that suicide is not competition.

Very well said.

 

[av8tor4239]

From the Delta weekly specials Email:
Atlanta, GA (ATL) to Providence, RI (PVD)$119

From the Greyhound Bus website:
Departing: Jul 22, 2008
From: Atlanta, GA
To: Providence, RI
Miles: 1134
Schedule: 1066
At: 02:30am

Select Fare Type
PurchaseFare TypeQtyPassengerEachTotal Refundable Fare 1
Adult
$167.00
$167.00 Non-refundable 1
Adult
$150.00
$150.00
From Amtrak webstie:

Atlanta, GA (ATL) To Providence, RI (PVD) SelectServiceDepartsArrivesDurationAmenitiesSeats/
Rooms $271.00 20 Crescent

Atlanta, GA
(ATL)
8:21 pm
22-JUL-08 New York, NY
- Penn Station
(NYP)
2:02 pm
23-JUL-08 17h 41mDining car, Lounge, Checked baggage 1 Reserved Coach Seat
Other Options Sold Out 176 Northeast Regional

New York, NY
- Penn Station
(NYP)
3:30 pm
23-JUL-08 Providence, RI
(PVD)
7:17 pm
23-JUL-08 3h 47mSnack car 1 Reserved Coach Seat

 

[~~~^~~~]

The facts are , and have been stated by several economist, mergers are expensive and risky. Combine that with a down enviroment and the results are plain to see.

For you or anyone to play this as something it isn't is disingenious at best. The facts are the cost of this merger is being downplayed.

They are revising their figures in a positive direction. Either something is going better than planned, or they were too conservative, or all this is eyewash.

Delta today doubled its target for new revenue and savings from the planned merger with Northwest Airlines Corp. to $2 billion, and said it will pull 30 more regional jets out of service to save on fuel. ... Delta said its profit was $137 million for the quarter, or 35 cents a share.

New Savings Target
The carrier created $12.3 billion in goodwill when it left court protection in April 2007. That accounting step reflected the excess value of the reorganized company over the estimated fair market value of its assets at that time. Delta wrote down about half of its goodwill in the first quarter.

Delta's new savings target for the merger compares with its April goal of $1 billion. Analysts including UBS Securities LLC's Kevin Crissey have said the previous target fell short of necessary cost cuts.

One-time merger integration costs will be $600 million over three years, Delta said today, less than the $1 billion it estimated in April.

Delta will park 100 regional jets after the peak summer travel season is over, up from its earlier goal of 70. Delta is also pulling as many as 20 of its larger mainline planes out of service as it tries to reduce domestic seats by 13 percent by the end of the year to lower costs.

So far what has been stated has been accurate (with the exception of Anderson's statement that he wasn't here to do a merger and subsequent announcements that the merger was off). I trust Delta's management, but am not as sure of the work done by the outside consultants. In particular, I am not a fan of McKinsey's "work."

 

[spinproof]

"Delta will park 100 regional jets after the peak summer travel season is over, up from its earlier goal of 70. Delta is also pulling as many as 20 of its larger mainline planes out of service as it tries to reduce domestic seats by 13 percent by the end of the year to lower costs."


I hear you brother...so to save money on the merger you just cut more employees???

 

[~~~^~~~]

From the Delta weekly specials Email:
Atlanta, GA (ATL) to Providence, RI (PVD)$119

When I go to the Delta web site I get $1,388 to $1,578 for one of three ASA flights daily.

Mainline Delta does not seem to serve PVD. Best fare is $1,076 through JFK on Comair.

You probably did get the e-mail, I don't doubt you. But if they are doing that to throw away last minute inventory you can bet some of that service will be cancelled this fall.

They should consider using some RJ's to cover misconnected mainline passengers. What is the cost of 50 hotel rooms, meal vouchers, lost bags and ill will? Seems like they could use some of that paid for flying time to pick up the 50 to 100 extra people always standing around the gate in Vegas, San Fran, Regan National, etc...

Load factors this summer have been very near 100% on most flights. There is no make up room when something cancels. The RJ's flying is paid for, they go everywhere, Delta has scheduling control... why not?

 

[spinproof]

Congrats to DAL! Very impressive in this current environment.

Yeah very impressive..."Delta will park 100 regional jets after the peak summer travel season is over, up from its earlier goal of 70. Delta is also pulling as many as 20 of its larger mainline planes out of service as it tries to reduce domestic seats by 13 percent by the end of the year to lower costs."

Your ALPO dollars at work!...or should I say in a coma!

 

[maxblast72]

Wow - If you find it so easy to dismiss your fellow pilots it makes me hope that your airline does fold so that I can keep my job.

If my airline folds because of a bad business plan and folds, and your airline benefits because of it, then so be it. I can only blame myself for having my head in the sand and not having my resume out to airlines that have better business plans.

If bad business plans continued to get propped up by all sorts of means, then the 100,000 airlines pilots in this country will all continue to suffer instead of just 5,000-10,000. We got Eastern pilots pilots here at Airtran (both sides of the strike) that suffered after the shutdown while Delta and USAir pilots (major East Coast players) benefitted in the mid 1990's when the economy gained strength.

 

[PCL_128]

Yeah very impressive..."Delta will park 100 regional jets after the peak summer travel season is over, up from its earlier goal of 70. Delta is also pulling as many as 20 of its larger mainline planes out of service as it tries to reduce domestic seats by 13 percent by the end of the year to lower costs."

Your ALPO dollars at work!...or should I say in a coma!

As far as I'm concerned, parking fuel-guzzling replacement jets is a good thing.

 

[spinproof]

As far as I'm concerned, parking fuel-guzzling replacement jets is a good thing.

...and the ALPO pilots that go with them? That's OK with you,huh PFT boy?

 

[~~~^~~~]

If oil swings to $100 bbl after Oct 15th (my cutoff date for major hurricane damage in Gulf), then some of the hedges may be under water or a wash. In either case, oil at $100 bbl will help the industry at the end of 08 and all through 09. The key will be each airlines ability to coordinate a steep reduction in capacity and still keep their head above water.

If you want to invest in this industry here in the US, just wait until after 10/15/08, and place your bets on the probable survivors.....the ones that won't need a bailout.....as the Fed may just may not be able to help the airline industry and instead let foreigner's in the hen house.

imp: ​

Lowcur:

You are right. Some are saying that this DAL/NWA deal is worth doing because it puts the Company #1 at the bail out table. But, as you point out, Delta already told AirFrance/KLM to keep their money for now.

With either party in office I would think it would be tempting to let the French bail out the US based "World's Largest Airline."

I hope we don't go there for a variety of reasons. For starters, I don't want ALPA negotiating 777 and A330 scope with the French on the top end.

A lot will come together in October. In addition to the hurricane season we probably have a new administration in Washington. Much of the market malaise is driven by what Bill Clinton would have called a "funk" that existed when Senior left office. The failure of the dollar is a result of bad policy and loss of faith. A new administration will probably restore some faith and might fix policy.

I'd be getting out of oil right now, but I said that months ago and was wrong then.