Delta restarting SEA to ANC and LAS

[Andy]

Emotional investment? GMAB. I'd be furloughed within 12 months at my last airline. I'm happy with where I am, and the qualifications I was able to gain here. If it tanks, I'd apply to Spirit or JetBlue, along with any legacy that is hiring. There would also be foreign carrier options that require the A320 type and time. Just curious, where did you go after you were furloughed from United?

How do you know VX's breakeven point? I'll save you the trouble on 4th quarter numbers, it'll be an operational protfit with an "interest expense" that will put it at a net loss, just like the 3rd quarter.

And in line with us going out of business in 2013, the pilots are about to get an increase in compensation/QOL package. Stay tuned for more on that information. Andy, if you were the board of directors at VX, at this point in time would you vote to give them a pay increase and therefore increaes your labor costs?

Do you understand that I find you not worth my time to engage in an exchange on investments/finance? I've had more erudite discussions with Hooters waitresses. I find zero value in our discussions.

Where'd I go after being furloughed from UAL? I worked for the AF reserves and started a couple of businesses. I had an extremely successful family hedge fund but I burned out due to getting less than 4 hours of sleep/day. I shut it down rather than having a heart attack. I've scaled back on the amount of time I devote to investment/finance and have found the balance has greatly enhanced the quality of my life - my family and I have gained considerable wealth through my efforts and my family understands my decision to no longer actively manage their investments. I will continue to devote a finite amount of time to investment/finance for the rest of my life as I find it enjoyable but will not allow finance dominate my life.

I do know VX's BELF? No, but I've got a very good estimate based on a large number of modeling inputs.

Pilot pay increases - how much do you think it costs to train a new pilot vs pay raises? VX has experienced an increased attrition rate and they need to reduce that because training new pilots is a large cost center. Throwing a bit of money at the pilots may help reduce attrition. I haven't modeled the price points where giving pilots raises makes sense and I frankly don't care. The bottom line is that either outcome increases VX's CASM.

If you wish to continue exchanges with me, post your estimates of VX's load factors, average fare, and other pertinent datapoints with verifiable references. Stating that VX is going to report an operating profit in Q4 is merely parroting Cush, who has been wrong many, many more times than he has been right. Bring something to the table; at this point, I view you as a very immature young man who is an empty vessel.

 

[Flyer1015]

Do you understand that I find you not worth my time to engage in an exchange on investments/finance? I've had more erudite discussions with Hooters waitresses. I find zero value in our discussions.

Where'd I go after being furloughed from UAL? I worked for the AF reserves and started a couple of businesses. I had an extremely successful family hedge fund but I burned out due to getting less than 4 hours of sleep/day. I shut it down rather than having a heart attack. I've scaled back on the amount of time I devote to investment/finance and have found the balance has greatly enhanced the quality of my life - my family and I have gained considerable wealth through my efforts and my family understands my decision to no longer actively manage their investments. I will continue to devote a finite amount of time to investment/finance for the rest of my life as I find it enjoyable but will not allow finance dominate my life.

I do know VX's BELF? No, but I've got a very good estimate based on a large number of modeling inputs.

Pilot pay increases - how much do you think it costs to train a new pilot vs pay raises? VX has experienced an increased attrition rate and they need to reduce that because training new pilots is a large cost center. Throwing a bit of money at the pilots may help reduce attrition. I haven't modeled the price points where giving pilots raises makes sense and I frankly don't care. The bottom line is that either outcome increases VX's CASM.

If you wish to continue exchanges with me, post your estimates of VX's load factors, average fare, and other pertinent datapoints with verifiable references. Stating that VX is going to report an operating profit in Q4 is merely parroting Cush, who has been wrong many, many more times than he has been right. Bring something to the table; at this point, I view you as a very immature young man who is an empty vessel.

The employee intranet page does have a month to date values for load factor, average fuel cost, cost per gallon (weekly), completion factor, and net promoter score. I just don't know if I'm allowed to copy/paste that information, so I'm going to play it safe and leave that info. Last thing I want is for someone to come down for posting "sensitive" material.

 

[General Lee]

I thought you had me on ignore hot shot. You just can't resist can you? Your mom is calling, time to get off her computer and clean your room.

Why would I have you on ignore, it's pure comedy reading your outlandish posts. Even the two guys who responded after me thought you were nuts and agreed with me about Airliners dot net. Ah, again you don't know what you are talking about, so enjoy ASA (Xjet)! Bye now!


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Andy]

The employee intranet page does have a month to date values for load factor, average fuel cost, cost per gallon (weekly), completion factor, and net promoter score. I just don't know if I'm allowed to copy/paste that information, so I'm going to play it safe and leave that info. Last thing I want is for someone to come down for posting "sensitive" material.

Those are internal proprietary numbers. Disseminating those numbers publicly could be grounds for termination.
Besides, if I really wanted specific numbers in a timely manner, there are ways to get fairly accurate estimates. My interest in VX is related to another investment that I'm evaluating and VX has a noticable impact on its profitability.
Depending on whether or not VX has any hedges in place, their average fuel cost for Feb was probably ~$3.30/gal.
VX's Feb completion factor was likely ~99.5%. There are pluses and minuses to high completion factors. In VX's case, the higher the better due to your small size making it difficult to recover from IRROPS. But to illustrate the positives of a lower completion factor, VX had a completion factor of 96.9% in October (hurricane Sandy) but had a load factor of 81.10%. In contrast, VX had a completion factor of 99.4% in November but had a load factor of 74.52%.
I'm not a huge believer in the Net Promoter Scale but I'd guess that VX is somewhere around 65%. I don't consider consumer feedback to be all that valuable in the airline industry; they'll tell you that they'll never fly ___ airline again - until ___ airline is the lowest price on travelocity.


I was doing some research on another investment play and found some numbers that I've applied to my estimates for VX's Q4. The best case scenario that I can come up with is a $10M operating profit.


But my main focus with VX's survival is cash. Most businesses (airline or otherwise) fail because they run out of money. If there is in fact an additional $200M of additional funding available, it may be possible for VX to fix their yield problems now that they've temporarily stopped taking delivery of new aircraft (other than the one due for delivery in March). If there's no additional funding, VX needs to start making consistent net profits very soon.

 

[redflyer65]

Cash on Hand = Life or Death for any business. Not rocket science.

I agree Andy, cash infusions are a necessity because of the quarter losses. Operating profits mean nothing, it's net profits that are needed.

 

[Flyer1015]

Cash on Hand = Life or Death for any business. Not rocket science.

I agree Andy, cash infusions are a necessity because of the quarter losses. Operating profits mean nothing, it's net profits that are needed.

Agreed, so lets give those pilots a pay cut. Right?

 

[Andy]

Agreed, so lets give those pilots a pay cut. Right?

VX is bleeding pilots. At ~$40K/pilot in training costs, $5-$10/hr is worth it if the attrition rate is reduced by one pilot/month. Not to mention reduced attrition improves scheduling reliability.

 

[Flyer1015]

VX is bleeding pilots. At ~$40K/pilot in training costs, $5-$10/hr is worth it if the attrition rate is reduced by one pilot/month. Not to mention reduced attrition improves scheduling reliability.

We're hardly bleeding pilots. We have about 25 guys total who will go back to UAL, and I can count on my hand recently the guys who have gone or have given notice to go to Spirit/US Airways/JetBlue/Part 135 operation. Bleeding isn't the right word, there is just slight attrition, and they already knew about the UAL furloughees going back. As for pilot training costs, a lot of that was included in the initial Airbus order purchase, and the MIA types were part of the deal. In fact, I heard that Airbus actually sent back money for those who VX trained at their own sim facility in SFO.

 

[CesnaCaptn]

VX is bleeding pilots. At ~$40K/pilot in training costs, $5-$10/hr is worth it if the attrition rate is reduced by one pilot/month. Not to mention reduced attrition improves scheduling reliability.

At this rate, their captains should stay just ahead of the legacy FO rates. It will be interesting to see what happens in a few years if/when the flood gates open at UA, DL and the new AA.

 

[redflyer65]

Agreed, so lets give those pilots a pay cut. Right?

Your right. Giving the pilots a 5 dollar and hour payraise means everything has turned around.

That's really your argument here?

Cessna is right, the CA rates are just about the same as legacy FO rates. So the quick upgrade (which has obviously slowed recently) gets you what? The hope of a 50% raise next time?