Delta Pilots about to get Screwed

[9rj9]

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[9rj9]

michael gets it !!!

This I agree with. Lee Moak hasn't seen a concession he will stand up too, and the Delta pilot sheep will vote yes on anything the MEC puts in front of them. Anderson, smart man that he is, will use this to his advantage and try to lower the Delta pilot costs even further.

finally calling a spade a spade

 

[Truckdriver]

Anderson, smart man that he is, will use this to his advantage and try to lower the Delta pilot costs even further.

So do you really believe that a guy as smart as Anderson would screw with the margin number just to keep from giving the pilots a raise. We will get at least 2%, probably closer to 4% raise anyways. I highly doubt they would screw with the margin number to save 1-2% in pilot labor costs. The value generated for shareholders by reporting high operating margins is probably more important to Anderson than a slightly higher labor cost figure. I may be completely wrong here, so I'll be looking at the 4th Q results closely to see what happens. So far, I don't see anything they are doing to turn away revenue or drive costs up to reduce the margin. I also did not see or hear that 3-5% margin forcast for the 4th Q so I'm going to search around for that now.

 

[michael707767]

So do you really believe that a guy as smart as Anderson would screw with the margin number just to keep from giving the pilots a raise. .

No, and I didn't say that. I do think Anderson is smart enough to know the Delta pilots are currently led by a weak MEC administration and when the next round of negotiations happen, he will go for more concessions.

I don't think Delta will do anything to mess with operating margin numbers. They won't have too. Next time around Moak and company will give away more of the farm, and Anderson knows it.

 

[whatitdoing?]

Delta's MEC is weak? First I've heard of this......do tell.

 

[igneousy2]

I also did not see or hear that 3-5% margin forcast for the 4th Q so I'm going to search around for that now.

http://news.delta.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=10882

4Q 2007 Forecast

2007 Forecast


​

Operating margin

3 – 5%

6 – 7%


​

Fuel price, including taxes

$2.36

$2.15



4Q 2007 Forecast
(compared to 4Q 2006)

2007 Forecast
(compared to 2006)


​

Mainline unit costs - excluding fuel and profit sharing

Down 5 – 7%

Down 4 – 5%


​

System Capacity

Up 3 – 4%

Up 2 – 3%​

Domestic

Flat

Down 2 – 4%​

International

Up 12 – 14%

Up 15 – 17%


​

Mainline Capacity

Up 3 – 4%

Up 1 – 3%​

Domestic

Down 1 – 3%

Down 4 – 6%​

International

Up 12 – 14%

Up 14 – 16%​

So 6-7% operating margin for the full year is 1.5-3.5% pay raise for pilots?

 

[General Lee]

No, and I didn't say that. I do think Anderson is smart enough to know the Delta pilots are currently led by a weak MEC administration and when the next round of negotiations happen, he will go for more concessions.

I don't think Delta will do anything to mess with operating margin numbers. They won't have too. Next time around Moak and company will give away more of the farm, and Anderson knows it.

I think Moak will come through, because he is out if he does not. It is different when a BK judge is breathing down your neck and there really is no way out. With posted profits and actual numbers, it will be harder to somehow get more concessions. I highly doubt it. I think a lot rides on how the AA guys do this next Summer, with their MEC already saying they will strike (or attempt to) next July if they do not get their raises.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[michael707767]

I think Moak will come through, because he is out if he does not. It is different when a BK judge is breathing down your neck and there really is no way out. With posted profits and actual numbers, it will be harder to somehow get more concessions.

I hope you are right. Here is the problem, let's say we get a good pay raise, but scope goes to 90 or 100 seats. Overall, is that a gain or a concession? I don't see concessions across the board, but I do see a situation where the MEC signs a TA with some good, some bad, but overall a concession. And you know when the sales job comes they will emphasis the good things.

Having said that, to paraphrase you, without a BK judge breathing down our neck I have hopes the pilots will vote a little smarter next time.

 

[Truckdriver]

So I saw the 4Q forecast of 3-4%. Maybe the raise will end up at 1.5% if we see the low end of that forecast in the 4th Q. However, the 3rd Q forecast was for 6-8% and we came in at almost 9%. I'd bet we'll beat the 4th Q forecast by about the same because that will drive the stock price up some. If we beat it and come in at about 5% then we'll see about a 5% raise in Jan. I'm counting on 1.5% and will spend the extra if we get it.

 

[Sedona16]

Last I heard is we are still negotiating for 9 MD-90s from China. Evidently the deal was done, but they all need a HMV and they are down to negotiating who will pay for it.

My gut feeling is we will get them, but I have not seen anything final yet.

We are getting 15 757s, 10 737-700s and 8 777s in the next two years. Those are all for sure....firm orders. What I have heard is that the 777 fleet will end up about 20 total, the 737-700 fleet about 20-25 total, a few more 738s coming in, and then the 90s and who knows if or how many.

I can say that in the lounge show the other day (I was there) Steve Dickson said we will hire about 620 pilots in 08.

And by the way to whomever said it, but .03% under would not reduce us from a 6% to a 2%. It's a graduated scale based on pre-tax operating margin. However, Dickson did say based on the projected margins, we are looking at a 2% restoration (I refuse to say raise) in 08 and about 6% of your yearly salary as a profit sharing check.

I think the fact Cinci was recently announced as an MD90 base along with SLC is telling. I believe at least 9 (if not more) MD 90's will come on board by early spring/Mid summer (maybe sooner). I dont necessarily think there will be a boatload but there will be enough to require more pilots in addition to that needed for the already aprox 30 firm aircraft delivers over the next two years. Btw, according to the guys doing the crew room Q and A's the these 9 MD90's have already been approved by the board. Anderson just needs to sigh the check at this point. From what I gathered Anderson is being REALLY tight with the money right now wanting to pay down debt and prepare for a potential merger (ie be the purchaser and not the purchasee).

 

[PCL_128]

Lots of incorrect information here:

Let's get one thing straight here : Alpa does have and use professional negotiators on every contract negotiation.

The negotiating committees of both the company and Alpa is made up of management , Pilots and lawyers .

On alpa's side you have pilots, who are just there to witness the negotiation and offer input to the alpa lawyers, and the alpa lawyer, who is ( are ) the one(s) doing the negotiations.

You're correct that ALPA does have professional negotiators, but they do very little of the actual negotiating. They are mainly there as advisors to the CNC to suggest strategy, help write proposals, etc... The main face-to-face negotiations typically are done between the CNC Chairman and a member of senior management, usually a VP-Flight Ops or similar. It's very rare for an ALPA CA (contract administrator/professional negotiator) to engage in direct negotiations with the company.

on the company's side you have the VP of Labor relation or some other goon , and some very expensive outside counsel who actually does the negotiation for the company.

Just as with the union side, it's rare to see a company that allows their legal counsel to handle the direct negotiations. Usually the attorney will request a side bar to consult with the management personnel that are actually conducting the negotiations.

The reason Alpa is not as efficient as the companies is because Alpas's lawyer get paid at most 250k a year ( except for Alpa's senior legal counsel who makes 350k ), which less than what a soon-to-be partner makes at the companies hired law firms. therefore , the company's labor law firm has much better talent than alpa can ever hope to have.( most alpa lawyers make 150 k, the 250k is what the senior alpa cousel of each of the legacies make)

Complete bullsh(&. The average ALPA negotiator has a lot more experience than the typical hired gun that a company will hire to assist with negotiations. Yes, ALPA CAs make less than a partner at a high-dollar law firm, but dollars don't equal experience. Most ALPA attorneys could leave ALPA and make a fortune at an outside law firm if they chose to, but they stay with ALPA because they are hardcore trade-unionists that believe in what they are doing. Most companies would kill to get someone like Seth Rosen or Bruce York to negotiate on their side, but they simply won't do it. Even when Bruce left ALPA for a few years, he still went to work for another union because he believes in helping labor. He's not in the game just for the dollars.

why doesn't alpa hire outside counsel then? they do, but the top labor law firms do not represent labor.

More BS. One of the top labor law practices in the country is Cohen, Weiss, & Simon, which ALPA uses almost exclusively for outside legal counsel. This firm has been practicing labor law for over 60 years, and they have some of the most experienced RLA experts in the business.

the same goes for the financial analyst alpa has. the company can hire any expensive consulting firms to tweak the numbers on their favor before and after the contract and those firm do not accept labor business. hence we are left with second tier analyst.

Where are you getting this crap? The truth is, many airlines actually pay ALPA to do the financial analysis for costing contract proposals! There is no other group in the business that has more experience than ALPA in costing aviation contract proposals, and they've proven themselves to be so impartial and accurate, that even airline management teams will trust them with costing proposals.

So alpa does have professionals negotiating on your behalf, they are just and will never be , as good as what the companies can buy.

I'd rather have ALPA's attorneys than the hired guns that management pays for any day. ALPA's system of utilizing contract administrators and other attorneys and specialists to assist line pilots in negotiating agreements is the best way to handle negotiations in this industry. Trusting a general professional negotiator to handle agreements as complex and specialized as pilot CBAs would be a big mistake.

 

[Pat Fabin]

No offense man, but anyone making even tentative plans on what our yearly operating margin will be is just crazy. But I have been flying with guys doing just that even before we were out of BK and losing paper money in the 1st quarter.

The margin will be whatever it is and we can only influence it in small ways by operating efficiently. The contract language defines the OM very well and does a decent job so management can't fudge the numbers and hide money to avoid giving us a raise.

And if anyone things management/Anderson is actually overly concerned with how much of a raise we get, I think you really overestimate our importance in the big picture...at least in their eyes. The airline does not revolve around pilots the way we think it does.

I just have a problem with the thread title...we're not being "screwed". We are operating under a crappy concessionary contract and it is what it is until we get the opportunity to change it.