Delta Memo looking at planning for new narrowbody aircraft for MAINLINE

[General Lee]

Then how come it wasn't mentioned in his letter?

I ALSO KNOW THE GUYS ON THE NEGOTIATING COMMITTEE. They are very pro-scope. We all are. I think you believe only LM or somehow Omally isn't? It's obvious you don't know the sentiment of this group. You also probably thought the CAL/UAL guys would give in too. WRONG.


And if you don't believe that other's are following in his footsteps or that he has zero access to their "ears" you are blind.
You should have heard the chears when he was elected. I am sure he does have "ears" still at DL, but he now has to focus more on National issues. That's great for us.



Wow, it is amazing that you put such blind and unconditional faith in what a ceo says. Especially with previous statements coming from the ceo saying he was not brought in to facilitate a merger.
He states it in Public, in national articles. It will be tough for him to get out of that. And, he also brags on his weekly voice messages to employees about the RJs he is parking. You seem paranoid. I bet you think he is talkjing to all the other CEOs on the "grassy knoll".


Really? That is a pretty bold statement. Pot and kettle comes to mind with regards to your statements of looking foolish. Take a look at what was taken in BK. You don't think we will get some of that back? What else is there to give up? You think it is more scope, and we are telling you no, along with the CAL/UAL pilots. Thanks to profitability, it makes it tough to cry poor. I keep having to repeat that for you. This just aint a give and take new contract.

I hope that is the case, but unlike you, I will hold everything as suspect until an agreement is in place. There is far, far too much history in place to do otherwise. And I'm not going to believe everything I read just because "the ceo said it." The fact that they are still adding 70 seaters to dci shows the direction of their feet. Was history changed in the C2K contract? It sure was. Then 9-11 came, along with the Comair strike, etc. Delta is better positioned, and they took us to the cleaners during the BK. It's time for some recoup. And, scope aint for sale. That might be the reason RA sold Compass and Mesaba, after he got the picture that 100 seaters weren't in the cards for them. The reason SKW just added 4 CR7s is because the scope limit is almost at the cap, but not just yet. We expected them to fill it to the limit, and they are almost there. Could that make sense to you? Maybe.

Please read above, and repeat 5 times.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[JohnDoe]

It's obvious you don't know the sentiment of this group.

And neither do you in reality. People say one thing to your face, but think differently in private. Have you ever noticed how nobody ever adimits to voting for crappy contracts and loss of scope? It's always "oh, I voted no on that." Yet crap still passes. So that you can read it five times as well: I hope you are right. But I am not going to sit back and assume anything. And after reading some of your 14000+ posts over the years I am certainly not going to take your word for it.

He states it in Public, in national articles. It will be tough for him to get out of that.

He also stated, in public and national articles as you say, that he was not hired at delta to facilitate a merger with northwest. Gee, what happend shortly thereafter? Anything he says can later easily be explained away with catch phrases like: "economic conditions have changed such that delta must now re-evaluate it's fleet replacement plan" Or there is the ever-popular "due to unforeseen circumstances.....yada yada." Are you really that blind to history, not only at delta, but any company?

You seem paranoid

And you seem gullible and easily swayed.

You don't think we will get some of that back?

I Never said that. But I certainly do not buy your assertion that there will be no give and take, as you stated. You actually think it will be all "take" and no "give?"

You think it is more scope, and we are telling you no

Who is we? I have yet to see an mec chairman say, in writting or in print, that maintaining scope, yet alone regaining scope, is a priority. As I said, time will tell and I hope you are right.

As I said before, I hope you are right, but unlike you I am not going to blindly sit by and assume "all is well" and unconditionally trust those that have led us astray in the past. All you have are opinions and verbal statements. Your rosy economic outlook can change on a dime. The negotiations can be extended past 2012 when there may be a more labor un-sympathetic administration in charge at the .gov.

The reason SKW just added 4 CR7s is because the scope limit is almost at the cap, but not just yet.

No.... the reason more CR7's were added is that delta wants greater numbers of larger rj's at dci. They aren't doing it just because they can. If they didn't want them, they wouldn't be adding them up to the limit. Like I said, watch their feet.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

The letter the new mec chairman just sent out, and the fact that it does not mention scope at all is in my mind? I guess you missed that letter. It came out on Jan 1st I believe. Perhaps you should read it.

It has been stated many times, with proof, elsewhere of what LM said. Do your own research.

Are you actually denying that the history exists of the delta pilot group giving up rjs back in the day? Or that northwest allowed compass to exist?

And if you really believe that there could not be any pilots willing to give up scope in exchange for pay you are once again proving you live in la la land.

Study history. You most certainly are doomed to repeat it.

Enjoy those 100 seater's dci. With people like general around, you are going to get them.

You're exactly right. Why would I want to fly those light twins that you regional lowlifes are flying again? Ill enjoy my huge paycheck and looking down on you as I stroll through the terminal, though.

Have fun, lifer!

 

[BID]

scope will never kill the rj industry, but FUEL prices just might.

 

[RJLoser]

You're exactly right. Why would I want to fly those light twins that you regional lowlifes are flying again? Ill enjoy my huge paycheck and looking down on you as I stroll through the terminal, though.

Have fun, lifer!

This guy is great.

 

[WSurf]

LM went to National, John. He isn't at the DL MEC anymore. That is a great thing for us. I personally saw the two new guys in charge (Omally and Van Sickle), and asked them about scope. They said it was a top priority. Also, this contract is a restoration contract. It is not a "give and take." Thanks to recent profitability and growth outlooks for the economy and business flying, there is little room to cry poor anymore. That just won't happen. Keep trying John, you are actually looking worse. And even RA (the CEO) stated specifically that these new planes will be flown by mainline pilots. Wow, it is amazing what you can't understand.


Bye Bye--General Lee

General do you really believe there is no room to cry poor???? Remember Fuel is going back up again. Now they are saying 5 bucks a gallon and over 120.00 a barrel by 2012. Oh, there's plenty of Poor Crying coming!

 

[General Lee]

General do you really believe there is no room to cry poor???? Remember Fuel is going back up again. Now they are saying 5 bucks a gallon and over 120.00 a barrel by 2012. Oh, there's plenty of Poor Crying coming!

WSurf, where do you come up with this? If gas went to $5 bucks a gallon, people would stop driving, and then supply goes up, and oil falls again to $45 a barrel or less. OPEC doesn't want that. There is also legislation in Congress right now to try to stop oil speculation on a small scale. Airlines actually hedge (speculation) on a larger scale, but speculators don't have to put as much money down as airlines do when making the bet. That is what could change in Congress. Oh, and here's an article from a place called Airwise on oil and hedging.

Airlines Bet Oil Will Correct, Reduce Hedging

January 6, 2011
Top global airlines are staying away from further hedging jet fuel purchases that account for around a third of their costs, betting that a recent surge in oil prices to two-year highs will slow.
Skimping on cover risks a squeeze in earnings for these companies, which typically have razor-thin margins and had just returned to profitability in 2010 after economic turmoil had sapped corporate and consumer demand for air travel.

Two factors are giving airlines pause: they have withstood prices far higher than current levels and the global economy now seems better placed to cope with the surge; and the industry hasn't forgotten Japan Airlines' bankruptcy, triggered by wrong bets on crude prices.
"The risk is if oil prices rise too rapidly beyond a certain level, airlines will be exposed to the price risk and the hedging portfolio will not be effective," said Kelvin Lau, an aviation analyst with Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong.

While there are no available figures on the volume of options being traded, transactions in OTC swaps contracts that are sometimes used by airlines as a betting tool have been falling.The visible volume of Asian regrade and jet fuel swaps purchased by banks in the last quarter of 2010, when oil prices crossed USD$90, dipped compared with the same period last year and also versus the three months to July 2008 when prices climbed to a record high of USD$147 a barrel, data showed.

"I am not seeing any airline coming out (to hedge) aggressively yet. Many appear quite comfortable with their positions," said Shukor Yusof, aviation analyst with Standard & Poor's Equity Research. "The current oil prices are not too acute for them to rush into the (hedging) market just yet."

OTC SWAPS
Some 2.85 million barrels worth of the two contracts changed hands in the October-December period last year, versus 3.55 million during May-July 2008, when Japan Airlines was disastrously betting that oil prices would keep rising.

Delta Air Lines said on December 15 that its hedge position for 2011 is about 40 percent, and of that, 40 percent is capped in the low-to-mid USD$80 a barrel range.

Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong's flagship carrier, is hedging 35 percent to 40 percent for the 2010-11 financial year compared with 50 percent a year earlier, while Malaysia Airlines is covering 33 percent in 2011 compared with 60 percent last year.

A slowdown in hedging will reduce the volume of business of banks that sell options and other derivatives to airlines to cover their bets.
Oil prices hit a 26-month high over USD$92 a barrel on December 31, closing the year up 15 percent. Strong growth from Asia, especially China, and a rebound in demand from recovering economies elsewhere fueled a four-month rally that pushed crude over the USD$70-USD$80 range it held for much of the year. Prices touched a peak of more than USD$145 a barrel in July 2008.





Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

General do you really believe there is no room to cry poor???? Remember Fuel is going back up again. Now they are saying 5 bucks a gallon and over 120.00 a barrel by 2012. Oh, there's plenty of Poor Crying coming!

How much Poor Crying, WSURF? ARE YOU SURE ABOUT THAT? Maybe from your own mouth....read the last sentence, please.



United, Delta predicted to lead way as airlines post $4B in profits
Triangle Business Journal - by Chris Baysden
Date: Monday, January 17, 2011

The top U.S. carriers will report their largest profit – nearly $4 billion – in a decade in fourth quarter earnings reports starting this week, according to estimates by industry analyst Web site AirlineFinancials.com.

The $3.95 billion profit will come on revenue of $122 billion from the eight largest U.S. carriers: Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United, US Airways, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Alaska Air and AirTran Airways. With the exception of Alaska, all of those carriers serve Raleigh-Durham International Airport.

AirlineFinancials.com projects that United will report both the highest net profit ($1.5 billion) and revenue ($34 billion) figures for the year. Delta will be second with a $1.4 billion profit on $31.7 billion in revenue.

American is the only large carrier expected to report a loss, which the Web site projects will be $404 million on $22.2 billion in revenue.

While those are huge profit numbers, the top carriers have been battered with $35 billion in net losses since 2001, the Web site says. This also will be the first time in a decade that the industry reported three consecutive profitable quarters.

The airlines have turned things around by cutting capacity nationally over the past couple years -- a move that helped them regain pricing power – and by improving the amount of ancillary revenue they generate (such as by charging customers to check bags). The budding economic recovery also helped by increasing passenger demand.

The result: Passengers are paying more to fly. The average fare at RDU in the first half of 2010 was nearly $209, up 15 percent from $181 in the same period a year ago, according to information provided by UBM Aviation. Those are the latest figures available.

There is some good news for RDU passengers though. After seeing declines in recent years, the airport is finally starting to see a boost in capacity thanks to new flights, UBM Aviation numbers show. The total scheduled seat capacity at the airport dropped from 560,252 in January 2008 to 496,590 in January 2009. That declined again to 459,657 in the first month of last year. But seat capacity surged up to 497,579 this month.

That increase could help to moderate the fare hikes seen in the past year – but there are a lot of other factors at play as well. Those include what happens to the price of oil, whether or not the tentative economic recovery holds, and how fast passenger demand grows.

RDU will release its 2010 passenger numbers at its monthly meeting later this week. Through the first 11 months of the year, the number of enplaned passengers at the airport grew 5.5 percent to more than 393,000.

The significant capacity increases at RDU are more the exception than the rule, according to Bob Herbst, who runs AirlineFinancials.com. He says that some airports are benefitting from reshuffling, but he only sees about a 3 percent increase in capacity systemwide.

Herbst thinks that the first quarter will be another good one for the major carriers, but he notes that with such thin profit margins – about 3 percent – a spike in fuel prices or labor trouble could quickly cause the industry to go back in the red.

“The airline employees have given up a lot over the last decade and they want it back,” Herbst says.



It won't all come back at once, but some of it will be coming back, and SCOPE can come back too. We have the payrates for large RJs, and it's time to send them our way! AMEN!

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[WSurf]

It won't all come back at once, but some of it will be coming back, and SCOPE can come back too. We have the payrates for large RJs, and it's time to send them our way! AMEN!

Bye Bye--General Lee

Believe me I hope your right. And yea we can all through quotes and articles up all day. But I think we all should hope that the industry recovers. Growth at the mainline level is what every hopes happens.
Fingers crossed!

But then again we still have to deal with greed in this country. Airline CEO's haven't been labor friendly over the last 15 years.

 

[General Lee]

Believe me I hope your right. And yea we can all through quotes and articles up all day. But I think we all should hope that the industry recovers. Growth at the mainline level is what every hopes happens.
Fingers crossed!

But then again we still have to deal with greed in this country. Airline CEO's haven't been labor friendly over the last 15 years.

No doubt there. Even with higher profits, DL is thinking about slower growth this year, maybe 1-3% total. That isn't much, and you are right, gas prices are higher, which will certainly hit the bottomline somewhere. Still, profits are a good thing, and restoration of contracts will become a priority in the next couple of years. I don't think anyone believes we will get everything we want, but there will be some things that are a priority, and other things that will be nice to have back again. Delta has done a good job avoiding other unions for the other groups (all voted down), which would have really added more of a burden to that bottom line again.

So WSurf, what's up with you? You still in EWN? I saw Pdt got the groud contract for stuff out West. Will you guys fly out there too? Would you go out there? What about you guys getting some DH8-400s? Take care.


Bye Bye--General Lee