This is why I'm curious about ALPA's take on this. The junior guys who get "furloughed" would at least temporailly get a better position than those senior to them.
I may be thinking about this the wrong way, but if the DAL side needs pilots from the NWA side, wouldn't you think NWA pilots could bid on who gets to go? I'm thinking of it as a bid, you seem to think of it as a "furlough". A lot of NWA commuters would desire a DAL base. Am I looking at this wrong?
The Indoc could, and probably will be, a CD. Last aircraft change for me was four weeks and three days from class to last leg of IOE. It can go very quickly if everything falls into place.
I agree.
>> Conjecture and half baked analysis warning <<
If you take the fleet and the block hours and divide through by the number of pilots, NWA is over staffed. I also hear the "Delta staffing requirements" rumors, but with the changes to the NWA fleet the result remains the same because the real operational numbers seem to run higher than the minimum required numbers. At the minimum numbers the wheels fall off the operation ... and I'd bet the MD88 is going to be green slip city for the reserves in the beginning of 2009.
The NWA displacement bid which was cancelled, as well as the rumors of numbers which might be sorta-not-really-furloughed all correlate around 160 to 170 'ish.
The other variable is how many NWA pilots take, or are allowed to take, an early out. Will that be 100, or 400? It makes a big difference at the end of the stovepipe. My guess is that this eventual number will correlate to the fate of the Captain slots going forward on the 747's.
Only 50 perp were granted, but many more applied. No 747 or 330 pilots were granted a perp because we are short on both aircraft.
For the First Officers, this will shake out fine. For NWA's DC9 and 747 Captains it will be more interesting all the way around. Do they get displaced?