Delta Future??--Crystal Ball Needed

[MedFlyer]

Medflyer,
Any guess on your future at Comair? I never see you guess about that. I have a guess though. If we merge with CAL, you guys will be squeezed out by Expressjet (unless they purchase you). If NW merges with us, Pinnacle and or Mesaba squeeze you out (unless they purchase you). Highly doubtful NW and CAL split us in half. Nah. What is your prediction about Comair?


Bye Bye--General Lee

Why is it doubtful that CO and NW would split DL? Given DL's size, it would be extremely difficult for either carrier to swallow all of DL. It's also likely that a split of DL would reduce the chance of antitrust problems. Plus some assets fit better with each carrier. CO would have no interest in keeping DL's JFK operation, but NW would. NW would have no interest in CVG, but CO probably wouldn't mind having a real hub to replace the stalled out CLE hub.

As for Comair, I think Comair would be purchased by whomever buys DL. Neither ExpressJet nor Pinnacle nor Mesaba, could possibly backfill all of Comair's lift. I don't think Comair would grow much, probably be stagnant for many years. Probably face some paycuts at Comair as well if DL is in CH11.

 

[Old Crow]

Delta can no longer compete in the traditional domestic market. Therefore the only answer is to reduce domestic presence and concentrate on profitable long haul markets.

To do this:
Chap. 11 is hard to tell.
Pensions...gone.
Productivity...increase to ASA/Comair levels
ASA/Comair...IPO
Scope relief for DCI up to as high as they can get to compete domestically. (This is the real dagger for the pilots).

 

[Noserider76]

Delta Domestic - All Song product with 752's and 738's/new737's. Some 764's on heavy routes and Hawaii. Song is the best U.S. domestic service flying and will more than compete. More point-to-point flying.

Most 763 and 764's converted for international ops.

I think Delta will come out fine once fuel prices drop and it's cost cutting begins to take hold. They have one large advantage in that they are almost all non-union and can implement changes much faster than other carriers.

Just my opinion.

 

[General Lee]

I think there is some truth there. I think the fleets will be reduced, but that doesn't really mean the number of aircraft. If there isn't a merger for some reason, I see a mainly 737 fleet (we added two new 737 types into our pay rates--the 737-700 and the -900), with some sort of widebody fleet---like 777s and 764s. The domestic ops will still be significant, but with more 70 seat RJs. ATL will not be reduced because if that were to happen, more LCCs would enter. DL should keep that going and probably increase it due to the success of Operation Clockwork and less delays. I still see CVG as a backup East Coast base (a wx alternate for travellers), and SLC has done well as of late (according to the CPO). I see more INTL flights too. A lot of this is speculation since I still think a merger is in the works, once our closet is cleaned up a bit with the debt and pension problems.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Boeingman]

I still think a merger is in the works, once our closet is cleaned up a bit with the debt and pension problems.

Bye Bye--General Lee

I agree General. BTW...Gear up!

 

[General Lee]

Yeah, I'll be your Gear Biatch. But it will be on the 777 out of EWR. Can't wait to go to Delhi in the Summertime....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Boeingman]

Yeah, I'll be your Gear Biatch. But it will be on the 777 out of EWR. Can't wait to go to Delhi in the Summertime....


Bye Bye--General Lee

Just be sure to pack your own food or bring plenty of Immodium.

 

[General Lee]

Just be sure to pack your own food or bring plenty of Immodium.

That's what our JFK based 767ER guys said. They do Mumbai and we just started Chennai service thru CDG with ATL guys. Should be fun.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Boeingman]

That's what our JFK based 767ER guys said. They do Mumbai and we just started Chennai service thru CDG with ATL guys. Should be fun.


Bye Bye--General Lee

I am sooooooooo glad we dropped Lagos. That, would have to be, the worst of any city to stay healthy.

All kidding aside, I do agree with you something is going to happen soon to the remaining carriers. If the U/AWA thing goes through it will probably start a domino effect with the remaining legacies. Not that it makes sense, but these upper management teams operate on the monley see monkey do principle.

I know a CO/DAL marriage has been bantered about for years, but somehow Delta has to off load debt to make it viable. I think bankruptcy is a last option for you guys. My guess would be duplicated asset sales of the combined company to reduce debt to a managable level and one that current revenues can service.

One thing is for sure, I think we are only at the tip of the iceberg with changes that are about to come.

 

[General Lee]

I am sooooooooo glad we dropped Lagos. That, would have to be, the worst of any city to stay healthy.

All kidding aside, I do agree with you something is going to happen soon to the remaining carriers. If the U/AWA thing goes through it will probably start a domino effect with the remaining legacies. Not that it makes sense, but these upper management teams operate on the monley see monkey do principle.

I know a CO/DAL marriage has been bantered about for years, but somehow Delta has to off load debt to make it viable. I think bankruptcy is a last option for you guys. My guess would be duplicated asset sales of the (A) combined company to reduce debt to a managable level and one that current revenues can service.

One thing is for sure, I think we are only at the tip of the iceberg with changes that are about to come.

I agree. I don't think the Gov't would ever allow a large carrier(with 50,000 employees) to go totally under these days, and will allow mergers, which is something they might not have considered in the past. I think DL will get rid of debt and those pension obligations (via legislation or dropping them), and then we will be in better shape to possibly merge with someone. Our fearless leaders say they "aren't failing to plan, and they certainly don't plan to fail...." Let's see what that means. I liked that saying so much, I made it my signature. We shall see.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Boeingman]

I agree. I don't think the Gov't would ever allow a large carrier(with 50,000 employees) to go totally under these days, and will allow mergers, which is something they might not have considered in the past. I think DL will get rid of debt and those pension obligations (via legislation or dropping them), and then we will be in better shape to possibly merge with someone. Our fearless leaders say they "aren't failing to plan, and they certainly don't plan to fail...." Let's see what that means. I liked that saying so much, I made it my signature. We shall see.


Bye Bye--General Lee

I just hope that both (all) the ALPA groups can (should this happen) try and do it fairly and follow merger policy with a minimum of rhetoric. The infighting and attacks only serve to help management with a divided and angry workforce.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

To do this:
Chap. 11 is hard to tell.
Pensions...gone.
Productivity...increase to ASA/Comair levels
ASA/Comair...IPO
Scope relief for DCI up to as high as they can get to compete domestically. (This is the real dagger for the pilots).[/QUOTE]

Scope relief for MORE Rj's???? Are you serious??? It used to be you RJ lovers were complaining about how you needed more 50 seaters a few years back, now it's 70 seaters you need more of, soon 90 seaters and then maybe the 777's. What ever happened to the party line you people were spewing about how profitable the 50 seat RJ's are??? What scope relief would you envision, so that I as a mainline pilot won't get furloughed again while you get new jets??? Please tell me!!!! When will you be happy with what your career expectation was when you hired on and quit trying to be a mainline pilot without ever applying or interviewing to be one.

 

[Old Crow]

You will get nothing and like it.