Delta Future- Crystal ball needed

[MLBWINGBORN]

My thoughts are...

Delta will be MUCH smaller..

They will move towards two aircraft types and try to get Boeing/FAA approval to operate/train with one type rating..

The short haul flying will be done by RJs.Which/who is a very big guess..

The domestic flying that matches aircraft usage/cost requirements plus the international flying will be done by the main line.Maybe a 737,777 fleet or even 7E7,777.

The industry as a whole will be forced away from DBPs and Delta will be part of that change..Bye bye A fund..

Look for serious route changes/consolidation.Longer legs for all mainline aircraft..Shorter legs go to RJs.

And about the time they finally get a handle on costs and start making regular profits..Everybody will want more money..
The process of industry leading contracts followed by industry downturns/furloughs will begin again..

Alot of financial blood will be let in the domestic markets..

The cycle of low cost startups dumping seats into an already over capacity marketplace will only quicken legacy carriers withdrawl from the domestic market..

There may even be whispers of some sort of airline regulation again..

This will happen at a time when Delta can ill afford even one pint of financial blood..

Now..hows that for a crystal ball?

Or was it just a flashlite through a beer glass?

The truth is i dont think ANYBODY..even the big G, has a clue where/when Delta will finally settle down..

Oil could hit $60 per and we all could be taking the train again..

 

[On Your Six]

One example

Canyon,

Let me give you an example of DAL FA "service" that was witnessed recently by one of my DAL pilot friends. Evidently, DAL sometimes hands out mints (real tasty mints) at the end of flights. On this one occassion, as the passengers were disembarking, an old, crotchety FA was handing out the mints at the door. As the passengers filed out of the aircraft, a younger passenger actually asked for an EXTRA mint. We're talking about a mint from a basket FULL of mints. The old bag FA replies, "No, you only get one mint." Well, my friend, an MD-88 FO, immediately grabbed the basket and gave the young passenger 5-6 mints (and there were a ton of mints left for the other passengers). He was shocked and pi$$ed off by this blatant example of crap service. The FA seemed unphased and clueless (and by the way, she looked like she was 100 years old).

See, doesn't seem like a big deal, but it is indicative of a LARGER problem among many of the older, jaded FAs. The "fun" has disappeared for many of them after the years and years of roller coaster rides. Customer service is going down hill and you need younger, "fresher" FAs who haven't YET been poisoned by the system. This is a customer business - and FAs interface with the customers. Why do you think Singapore Airlines caps the age on FAs at something like 28 years old - you need "fresh" FAs interacting with the passengers - that's the POINT. The LCCs realize that customer service (after price) can be a big differentiator and most have hired nice, perky, fresh FAs who are genuinely friendly with customers and happy to be there...

Get rid of the old bags with some special retirement severence and do what Singapore Airlines does - recycle the stews...

 

[On Your Six]

Contracting the fleet and RJs in the future....

More predictions:

I'll bet that there will be LESS of a reliance on 50 seat RJs in the future. Nobody likes to fly on 50-seat RJs and they have very high CASMs vs. the 70+ seaters out there. Sure, you will always use them on smaller, thinner routes like Salt Lake - Pasco or ATL - Roanoke, but you would not want to use them on LCC competitive routes because you can't spread the costs effectively across 50 seats and break even with lower fares. AirTran seems to agree with that rationale and they dumped the Air Whisky CRJs... Don't expect growth in the 50 seat category for DAL - you may even see some contraction.

I look forward to hearing more about DAL's 70-100 seat plans. Who knows what will happen in terms of scope for more 70 seaters (say CR7s) - maybe the furloughees will be placed in any NEW 70 seat additions down the pipe with ASA and Comair seeing 70 seat growth for their pilots after that - who knows? Mainline will maintain control of the 100 seaters at lower rates like it has with Delta Express 737-200s and its low rates (probably not AS LOW as Jet Blue rates on the 100 seaters but low enough).

Delta MUCH smaller? I don't see how people predict DAL will be much SMALLER.... Based on what analysis? Do you expect DAL to sell off a ton of 767s, 757s and 777s? Delta might add 764s and 777s (and even the 7E7) for international route growth (that's where the money is). Sure, the 737-200s and 737-300s will likely go. I think the MD-88s/90s might get phased out over the years, but they would likely be replaced by 737-800s or even Airbus airplanes. How do you see Delta contracting? What if Delta ordered Airbus A318s (the 100 seater), A319s, and A320s to replace its 737-200s, 300s and MD-88/90s? Wouldn't that work in terms of adding a 100 seater and simplifying training and inventory/maintenance costs? It could happen.... Who knows????

 

[DLslug]

Ladies and Gentlemen,


Wow, I'm impressed with many of your posts. (except the continual complaining about the FA's, gimme a break!)

I think, unfortunately, many of you are right. Delta will have a changed look and business model from today that many of you have explained.

Fewer 50 seaters. More 70 to 90 seaters and hopefully that all important 100 seater.

Delta Int'l service will be the sacred cow for the future, until other LCC's start to fly those and screw things up completely.

Delta will look more like Song without a doubt. Just hope there's not too much green paint in our future.

One thing I would like to say is, that just like the latest fare increase failed, pressure on these rediculously LOW fares is out of control. I can't imagine trying to be in management right now knowing that you continue to give your product away on a daily basis and losing your financial a$$ in the process.

I don't care that some companies can deliver the product at a lower price, but the fact that other airlines cannot charge a fair price is terrible.

SOMETHING HAS TO BE DONE ABOUT AIR FARES THAT ARE TOO LOW.

Just like when we go to fill up the car at the gas station, the high price of oil has a direct affect on the price paid at the pump. The same should apply to those who wish to travel by air.

I know that there are alot of SWA pilots on the forum, but I can't respect your managers decision to absolutely cut prices to the bone at a time like this. This is a deliberate move to put others out-of-business, not just to save the public on the price of air travel. (No offense guys, we just fly the planes)

Anyhow, keep the comments coming, it's interesting to see what you all think.

I hope GG is up at night trying to figure this one out!

All for now,

DLslug

 

[On Your Six]

DLslug,

Good post. Very much agree about the diminishing role of the 50 seat RJ in the future. Hopefully we'll hear about the 100 seater and maybe additional 70 seaters soon.

C'mon - you gotta agree about the stews.... I am not trying to get flamed here and I am not being too sexist. The point is that as a very recent passenger I have seen some average/awful service on Delta and that just won't cut it in this LCC environment. Jet Blue and Song have great service from what I have observed. The older DAL stews need to be offered some sort of package - including health benefits to get them out the door and on to their Florida retirement. Hey - you can't argue with Singapore Airlines and its sterling reputation for service (although they can pack something like 21 HOT flight attendants on a 747-400 vs. the standard 14 or so). Let's get some "fresh" FAs who aren't spoiled by the system YET (it's a matter of time)....

 

[BoilerUP]

I don't see DAL flying Airbusses, unless then can get them for free, like B6

My glass beer stein shows DAL, in the next 5-10 years, changing their fleet to 777, 757/767, 738, and 717 or E195.

I see scope relief to allow DCI to fly many more 70 seaters (while reducing some 50 seaters), along with a CMR/ASA merger and expansion westbound, with longer legs.

I see the DoJets leaving the property along with the older CR1s and Skywest's contract terminated, along with the west-coast AE codeshare.

I see the pensions gone within 3 years (I hope not)

I see a 23-28% pay cut, but DAL still being the highest-paid pilots.

I see alot more senior captains taking early retirement instead of putting up with this crap.

But hey, what all do I know???

 

[MedFlyer]

DLslug,

Good post. Very much agree about the diminishing role of the 50 seat RJ in the future. Hopefully we'll hear about the 100 seater and maybe additional 70 seaters soon.

C'mon - you gotta agree about the stews.... I am not trying to get flamed here and I am not being too sexist. The point is that as a very recent passenger I have seen some average/awful service on Delta and that just won't cut it in this LCC environment. Jet Blue and Song have great service from what I have observed. The older DAL stews need to be offered some sort of package - including health benefits to get them out the door and on to their Florida retirement. Hey - you can't argue with Singapore Airlines and its sterling reputation for service (although they can pack something like 21 HOT flight attendants on a 747-400 vs. the standard 14 or so). Let's get some "fresh" FAs who aren't spoiled by the system YET (it's a matter of time)....

You must have gotten dumped by a DL FA long ago because you seem obsessed with DL's older FA's. Sure some of them are a bit tired, but it will be tough to get rid of them. FA's make so little money in the early years, that they have to stick around for a long time in order to really make a living....sort of like pilots.

I think the reason most people see DL mainline shrinking is that DL has so many oddball fleet types that need to be retired, but DL doesn't have the ability to replace them all. Realistically, DL needs to get rid of the 732's, 733's, MD90's and probably even the 762's. That's over 100 planes to replace and that's just replacement....nevermind growth aircraft. Even after DL restructures, there's no way they can afford to replace 100+ planes that fast. It will take at least five years to replace that many planes, but DL needs to get fleet types reduced sooner than that.

So it wouldn't be a surprise if DL mainline is forced to shrink a little bit in the next few years.

 

[f9driver]

Stews and On Your Six

Come on Six, do you think old and overweight F/A's were just invented? Pan Am had some that worked in the flying boat days. They also had to recall a bunch of what were called "dirty mothers". Older F/A's that had to quit because they were pregnant and who won their court case. In the 60's Delta's expansion with their new hotties made Pan Am, it's old F/A's and it's "ball bearers" look ancient. Each new airline that comes along has new and younger F/A's. The laws that prevented that back in the 1960's i.e. married, age and overweight have all been challenged and lost. It is Delta and the other old carriers time to have the tables turned. You will not see a bevy of young babes come along so your airline can prosper and get you back off furlough or get you one of those jobs with the majors.
I am also so sorry that older crews with chronic health problems are preventing you from reaching your potential. You are all heart!

 

[Heavy Set]

Old, jaded flight attendants = bad service = crap experience

I actually agree with On Your Six. I have also flown both Song and Delta mainline lately and the difference is night and day. No joke. Young, enthusiastic attractive flight attendants on the Song flight (actually smiling!) vs. older, heavier and just plain nasty flight attendants on the Delta flights. Average age on the Delta flights was at least 20 years older than the comparable Song flight attendants. The "service with a smile" on Song was very evident and it made the flight more enjoyable - seriously.

Sometimes I wonder why the older flight attendants stay so long if the job is not enjoyable at all to them. Clearly they are not paid well. However, I bet that most of the flight attendants at mainline Delta are earning quite a bit more than their counterparts at Song, Jet Blue, AirTran, America West and Spirit. They probably will make less than their SWA counterparts. However, the long-haul flight attendants probably make more than their long-haul counterparts at American and United.

I also agree that a flight attendant buyout package with health care benefits should be offered so that the older flight attendants can exit while they still have their sanity. I think On Your Six was spot on with his viewpoint - the flight attendants need to either improve their customer service skills or retire with a package... Probably won't happen though - Grinstein doesn't want to pi$$ them off and have them consider unionization!!!!!!!! So, he can only pick on the pilots' union for most of the business recovery. Hmmmm - that sounds fair.... What happened to team work and working together toward a "better tomorrow?" Seems pretty one-sided to me regardless of who makes the most cash in the business. I thought the executives made the most cash? What will their pay cuts (not lack of raises) look like?

Beyond that, I wouldn't be surprised if Delta added more 70 seaters to reduce CASM - hopefully the furloughees would be given first dibbs before ASA and Comair gained any additional growth. Can't forget the furloughees on the street...

I also agree that adding Airbus to the fleet would NOT be unreasonable because you could hit two birds with one stone:

1. A318 = 100 seater
2. A318, A319 and A320 share common type rating so you can reduce training costs, maintenance costs and have a lot of flexibility with routes depending upon demand.

That's my $0.02 for now....

 

[DLslug]

Heavy and Six:


Heavy; I can't see airbus on the property as been mentioned earlier. Again, too many fleets and too much cost to convert to Busology. Think about it, pilots and mechanics, parts, etc. on the property today to fly various models of Boeing products. That's probably the way it will stay.

MD-88/90's will be phased out between 2007 and 2014. (who knows, just a rumor)

Hey Six, I guess there is more of a FA issue than I think. I mean you got flamed for starting it and I just blew it off, but there are so many complaints fom all the others that fly in the back as passengers. Oh well, it comes down to personal responsibility by each individual these days and I guess some are not doing a very good job. Remember though, some are.

All for now,

DLslug