Delta Future- Crystal ball needed

[BoilerUP]

I don't see DAL flying Airbusses, unless then can get them for free, like B6

My glass beer stein shows DAL, in the next 5-10 years, changing their fleet to 777, 757/767, 738, and 717 or E195.

I see scope relief to allow DCI to fly many more 70 seaters (while reducing some 50 seaters), along with a CMR/ASA merger and expansion westbound, with longer legs.

I see the DoJets leaving the property along with the older CR1s and Skywest's contract terminated, along with the west-coast AE codeshare.

I see the pensions gone within 3 years (I hope not)

I see a 23-28% pay cut, but DAL still being the highest-paid pilots.

I see alot more senior captains taking early retirement instead of putting up with this crap.

But hey, what all do I know???

 

[MedFlyer]

DLslug,

Good post. Very much agree about the diminishing role of the 50 seat RJ in the future. Hopefully we'll hear about the 100 seater and maybe additional 70 seaters soon.

C'mon - you gotta agree about the stews.... I am not trying to get flamed here and I am not being too sexist. The point is that as a very recent passenger I have seen some average/awful service on Delta and that just won't cut it in this LCC environment. Jet Blue and Song have great service from what I have observed. The older DAL stews need to be offered some sort of package - including health benefits to get them out the door and on to their Florida retirement. Hey - you can't argue with Singapore Airlines and its sterling reputation for service (although they can pack something like 21 HOT flight attendants on a 747-400 vs. the standard 14 or so). Let's get some "fresh" FAs who aren't spoiled by the system YET (it's a matter of time)....

You must have gotten dumped by a DL FA long ago because you seem obsessed with DL's older FA's. Sure some of them are a bit tired, but it will be tough to get rid of them. FA's make so little money in the early years, that they have to stick around for a long time in order to really make a living....sort of like pilots.

I think the reason most people see DL mainline shrinking is that DL has so many oddball fleet types that need to be retired, but DL doesn't have the ability to replace them all. Realistically, DL needs to get rid of the 732's, 733's, MD90's and probably even the 762's. That's over 100 planes to replace and that's just replacement....nevermind growth aircraft. Even after DL restructures, there's no way they can afford to replace 100+ planes that fast. It will take at least five years to replace that many planes, but DL needs to get fleet types reduced sooner than that.

So it wouldn't be a surprise if DL mainline is forced to shrink a little bit in the next few years.

 

[f9driver]

Stews and On Your Six

Come on Six, do you think old and overweight F/A's were just invented? Pan Am had some that worked in the flying boat days. They also had to recall a bunch of what were called "dirty mothers". Older F/A's that had to quit because they were pregnant and who won their court case. In the 60's Delta's expansion with their new hotties made Pan Am, it's old F/A's and it's "ball bearers" look ancient. Each new airline that comes along has new and younger F/A's. The laws that prevented that back in the 1960's i.e. married, age and overweight have all been challenged and lost. It is Delta and the other old carriers time to have the tables turned. You will not see a bevy of young babes come along so your airline can prosper and get you back off furlough or get you one of those jobs with the majors.
I am also so sorry that older crews with chronic health problems are preventing you from reaching your potential. You are all heart!

 

[Heavy Set]

Old, jaded flight attendants = bad service = crap experience

I actually agree with On Your Six. I have also flown both Song and Delta mainline lately and the difference is night and day. No joke. Young, enthusiastic attractive flight attendants on the Song flight (actually smiling!) vs. older, heavier and just plain nasty flight attendants on the Delta flights. Average age on the Delta flights was at least 20 years older than the comparable Song flight attendants. The "service with a smile" on Song was very evident and it made the flight more enjoyable - seriously.

Sometimes I wonder why the older flight attendants stay so long if the job is not enjoyable at all to them. Clearly they are not paid well. However, I bet that most of the flight attendants at mainline Delta are earning quite a bit more than their counterparts at Song, Jet Blue, AirTran, America West and Spirit. They probably will make less than their SWA counterparts. However, the long-haul flight attendants probably make more than their long-haul counterparts at American and United.

I also agree that a flight attendant buyout package with health care benefits should be offered so that the older flight attendants can exit while they still have their sanity. I think On Your Six was spot on with his viewpoint - the flight attendants need to either improve their customer service skills or retire with a package... Probably won't happen though - Grinstein doesn't want to pi$$ them off and have them consider unionization!!!!!!!! So, he can only pick on the pilots' union for most of the business recovery. Hmmmm - that sounds fair.... What happened to team work and working together toward a "better tomorrow?" Seems pretty one-sided to me regardless of who makes the most cash in the business. I thought the executives made the most cash? What will their pay cuts (not lack of raises) look like?

Beyond that, I wouldn't be surprised if Delta added more 70 seaters to reduce CASM - hopefully the furloughees would be given first dibbs before ASA and Comair gained any additional growth. Can't forget the furloughees on the street...

I also agree that adding Airbus to the fleet would NOT be unreasonable because you could hit two birds with one stone:

1. A318 = 100 seater
2. A318, A319 and A320 share common type rating so you can reduce training costs, maintenance costs and have a lot of flexibility with routes depending upon demand.

That's my $0.02 for now....

 

[DLslug]

Heavy and Six:


Heavy; I can't see airbus on the property as been mentioned earlier. Again, too many fleets and too much cost to convert to Busology. Think about it, pilots and mechanics, parts, etc. on the property today to fly various models of Boeing products. That's probably the way it will stay.

MD-88/90's will be phased out between 2007 and 2014. (who knows, just a rumor)

Hey Six, I guess there is more of a FA issue than I think. I mean you got flamed for starting it and I just blew it off, but there are so many complaints fom all the others that fly in the back as passengers. Oh well, it comes down to personal responsibility by each individual these days and I guess some are not doing a very good job. Remember though, some are.

All for now,

DLslug

 

[DLslug]

This just in!!


Anyone else hear that DL is considering Airbus jets??

Of course, I just posted yesterday that I think they will stay all Boeing...shows how much I know!

P.S. I liked the Delta Union's respose to mgts counter-offer today. Management better go back to the board room and think this one thru.

All for now,

DLslug

 

[dtfl]

Just my $.02

I made a comment on our future back when Leo was negotiating our contract in 2000. I made it to some friends concerning RJs, etc when they asked about what was being negotiated. Well the reason I still think this is...a friend who was near the bottom of the F/As took a job with a family in HI flying as the F/A on a G-IV. One of the family friends was the COO of CAL. He said he sees Delta ( the same way I predicted - and this is very simplified) as - RJs (of some sort 70-100 seat) into the hubs. All US flying is SONG and the only Delta tail flashes (unless they delete the Song brand) on international flights.
That is what I think the future holds. What is interesting is how we will lure the business and 1st class passengers that WANT to spend more on US flights. I guess they will deal with business class seating until they get on the ER or 777.
Just my $.02

As far as the scarebuses....I would think an all Boeing fleet would reduce MX and training costs. I was at Farnborough and Airbuses were selling like hotcakes - but to all foreign markets.

 

[On Your Six]

A318 should be the 100 seater if you order enough A319s and A320s

How about this:

Reduce fleet to 3-4 types with:

1. A318 (the magic 100 seater), A319, A320
2. 757 and 767
3. 764 and 777 (basically similar cockpit) and maybe 7E7

You would only need 3-4 simulator types max. It actually makes a lot of sense and I bet Airbus would be willing to do a deal for a big order of smaller Airbi.

This would answer that magic 100 seater question.... The EMB-190 would be another aircraft type and different parts, training, etc. and would therefore add more complexity to the package because it would be different than the current 737-300, 737G (300 with glass), 737-800, MD88/90, etc. - why not just streamline the short haul fleet with Airbus (everyone else is doing it...)? Frontier is using the A318 and as far as I know, not many have been ordered beyond Frontier and Air France. Better hurry before Virgin America makes its big, confirmed Airbus order....

 

[BoilerUP]

why not just streamline the short haul fleet with Airbus (everyone else is doing it...)?

Just cuz everybody else is doing it doesn't make it right...if everybody jumped off a bridge, would you jump too?

In all seriousness, Boeing seems to be so integrated into the Delta lifestyle that it would be a MAJOR change to switch to an all Airbus fleet. They'd have a huge capital outlay to replace simulators, spare parts, and other support items before you even got into the issue of aircraft acquisition and training. Sure they could trade-in some things, but they'd probably still lose their behinds doing it. Besides, you'd have a split Airbus/Boeing fleet, which could be a headache.

I see DAL sticking with Boeing, because of their exisiting fleet and long-running relationship. I had never thought of the 736 before, but it fits perfectly with their exisiting fleet of 738s. Common parts, common mx, common sense.

But stranger things have happened in this industry...

 

[On Your Six]

I hear Boeing has had an antagonistic relationship with Delta. If Airbus offered the right price (needed given Delta's precarious financial position), then I wouldn't count them out because again, it would simplify the fleet AND provide a proven 100-seater that would require no additional training if the A319 and A320 were included...

Having dual manufacturers working with Delta could be good for negotiating leverage down the line when the 767-300/400s need to be replaced too. Fred Reid, the former President who is now heading Virgin America, had already started discussions with Airbus (given his previous work at Lufthansa - he's worked with Airbus in the past) about 100 seat options.

It could happen (the full Airbus shorthaul lineup has worked well for other companies) and it would take care of the 100 seater question....

 

[General Lee]

Boilerup,


Apparently we aren't having the best relationship with Boeing at the moment. On your six is correct. The rumor I keep hearing in the ATL lounge (which may not be correct) is that we are in search of a 100 seater to replace our old 737-200s--and the A318 AND FAMILY is the primary consideration at this time. The main reason for that as A POSSIBILITY is because of the common cockpit, which would equal less training costs and less maintenance. This, of course, would occur after a large concession. We shall see.


Bye Bye--General Lee