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DAL value up to $12B

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General, I do understand the article, and my point is that Congress doesn't get a vote on the merger. The representatives will talk and bloviate and jump up and down to defend their interest in the home district. The transportation committee can "lean" on the DOJ and make recommendations, but they don't decide anything. It is a bunch of lawyers for each side (Delta and US Air) making a case to a bunch of lawyers at DOJ. I am sure that you have read some experts who say that this shouldn't be a big deal once a few assets are sold off, others put it at 80% others at 50% and others that you cite that say anti-trust issues are insurmountable. My personal feeling is that US Air should try to work out their current merger before doing more "work." I'd like to see Delta get well (and put certain family members back to work flying airplanes), but I also don't think that this merger is so crazy that it is dead in the water. I am on your side, but after reading a lot of info on this, I DON'T think you can say that the anti-trust side is going be the the thing that kills this deal. (unfortunately)

Can you give me an example of when the transportation sub committee gave a thumbs down to a merger, and the DOJ approved it anyway? I don't think that has ever happened. This committee was instrumental in voicing it's opinion of the USAir/UAL merger (Oberstar wrote a long paper on why mergers are bad for consumers at that time), and the DOJ subsequently said NO. The DOJ absolutely listens to Congress, and even Oberstar stated that in that quote I gave you from him. The DOJ did kill the UAL/USAir deal ultimately.

And, I am glad you are on my side.


Bye Bye--General Lee

PS---Here is a paper co authored by Oberstar during that USAir/UAL merger attempt:


Oberstar, Slaughter to Release GAO Study United-US Airways Merger
Analysis shows merger would reduce competition in 290 markets and spur further airline consolidation.

WASHINGTON—The proposed merger between United Airlines and US Airways will reduce airline choices for millions of air travelers and is likely to push other carriers to consolidate in order to compete with the merged airline, a new study by the General Accounting Office shows.


Rep. James L. Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Louise M. Slaughter (D-N.Y.) are to release the GAO report, "Aviation Competition: Issues Related to the Proposed United Airlines-US Airways Merger"(GAO-01-212), today at a Capitol Hill news conference. Oberstar is the Ranking Democratic Member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Slaughter, represents Rochester, N.Y., a market that already has some of the highest airfares in the country. Rochester stands to be heavily affected by the merger.

“I have been deeply concerned about the anti-competitive effects of the proposed merger of United Airlines and US Airways, and the accompanying proposed transfer of slots to a new airline, DC Air,” Oberstar said. “I believe that, if the proposed merger were to be approved, the remaining large airlines would feel compelled to merge to retain their shares of the overall market. We would soon be reduced to an industry of three major competitors, resulting in a devastating loss of competition for consumers.”

“This report underscores what I have said all along–that this proposed merger would be the beginning of the end of the aviation industry as we know it,” said Congresswoman Slaughter. “If the merger goes forward, other mergers would follow. Communities would be at the mercy of three carriers, dominating the entire United States. Deregulation was never intended to facilitate the creation of de facto monopolies controlling which communities live or die depending on their access to air service.”

Among the study’s findings:

· After a merger, the New United would dominate 1,156 of the 5,000 most heavily traveled markets, affecting 61.1 million passengers. New United’s market dominance would be 36 percent larger than that of the next carrier, Delta Airlines.
· The merged airline would carry 33 percent more passengers than Delta; 89 percent more than American; and 89 percent more than Southwest, and New United would carry nearly the same number of passengers as Northwest, Continental, TWA and America West combined.
· Based on interviews with industry analysts and officials from several airlines, GAO concluded that if the merger were approved, the “new United would so alter the existing balance in the domestic market that, for the other major U.S. airlines to compete successfully, they would have little choice but to consolidate as well.”
· The merger of United and US Airways would reduce or eliminate competition for almost 16 million passengers in 290 of the most heavily traveled aviation markets. In 43 of those 290 markets, the merger would reduce the number of competitors from 2 to 1, affecting 4.1 million passengers.
· GAO compared the proposed United-US Airways merger to the proposed alliance and stock acquisition between Northwest and Continental, which DOJ found to violate anti-trust laws. GAO’s findings indicate that the loss of competition from a United-US Airways merger would be much greater than from a Northwest-Continental relationship.

“Fewer choices, higher fares and a deterioration in service is not what Congress contemplated in 1978 when it deregulated the airline industry. Yet, that is the likely result if a United-US Airways merger is approved by the Department of Justice,” Oberstar said. “I strongly urge the DOJ to take heed of the GAO’s analysis of the merger’s impact on competition and consumers, and reject this proposed merger.”




And here is what happened when the Committee denounced the USAir/UAL attempted merger:

Justice Department Rejects Proposed US Airways, United Airlines Merger.

From: Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News | Date: July 28, 2001

http://www.highbeam.com/Aspx/GetPubL...usine ss+News

The Charlotte Observer, N.C. Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Jul. 28--The US Airways deal is dead.
The Justice Department strongly rejected United Airlines' planned $12.3 billion takeover of US Airways Friday, saying it would have reduced competition, raised fares and harmed airline passengers.
"While mergers can further competition, this one does not," said Attorney General John Ashcroft. "If this acquisition were allowed to proceed, millions of consumers would have little choice but to pay higher fares and accept lower quality air service."


And Parker now points out that the AWA/USAir merger has resulted in lower fares and more service. Well, hardly any of their routes overlapped at all, except some LAS flights from PHL. DL/US overlap all over the place, since our major hubs (ATL and CLT) are only 220nm away from each other. It is ridiculous, and the DOJ will see that.
 
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Can you give me an example of when the transportation sub committee gave a thumbs down to a merger, and the DOJ approved it anyway? I don't think that has ever happened. This committee was instrumental in voicing it's opinion of the USAir/UAL merger (Oberstar wrote a long paper on why mergers are bad for consumers at that time), and the DOJ subsequently said NO. The DOJ absolutely listens to Congress, and even Oberstar stated that in that quote I gave you from him. The DOJ did kill the UAL/USAir deal ultimately.

The DOJ is under the Executive branch of the government (Bush). Bush owes no favors to congress (especially the Dems) and will do what he wants and if he wants to see his ATSB poster child do well, that's what'll happen.

The Dems got the heads of John Bolton, Rumsfeld and Ashcroft. Now it's time for them to sleep in the bed they made for themselves.

The only ones who don't want to see this go through are those who think they can contrive some new reality unique to ATL. You would think a region of people who have been through reconstruction before would appreciate the value of learning to adapt to changing times.
 
The DOJ is under the Executive branch of the government (Bush). Bush owes no favors to congress (especially the Dems) and will do what he wants and if he wants to see his ATSB poster child do well, that's what'll happen.

The Dems got the heads of John Bolton, Rumsfeld and Ashcroft. Now it's time for them to sleep in the bed they made for themselves.

The only ones who don't want to see this go through are those who think they can contrive some new reality unique to ATL. You would think a region of people who have been through reconstruction before would appreciate the value of learning to adapt to changing times.

But wait, Ashcroft was a Republican, in a Republican held Congress, and he still voted the USAir/UAL merger down. Bush had his chance. And, do you think the Republicans want to be responsible for more job losses, before the next election in 08? Nah.

Read what Ashcroft said:

The Charlotte Observer, N.C. Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Jul. 28--The US Airways deal is dead.
The Justice Department strongly rejected United Airlines' planned $12.3 billion takeover of US Airways Friday, saying it would have reduced competition, raised fares and harmed airline passengers.
"While mergers can further competition, this one does not," said Attorney General John Ashcroft. "If this acquisition were allowed to proceed, millions of consumers would have little choice but to pay higher fares and accept lower quality air service."



And, according to the original article I posted, many Congressmen from ALL OVER (including PHX, CLT, and PHL) do NOT want this merger to happen. Even Coast to Coast ALPA (USAir's ALPA) is denouncing it. Sorry.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
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No doubt that Delta should be profitable over the next few years with all the cost cutting, but the real unknown is exactly how much of their debt will be forgiven and how much will still need to be paid back going forward? Looking at Yahoo Finance data implies that UAL/UAUA had more than 10 billion forgiven during 3 years of BK. That could make Delta into an ATM Machine...
 
I say Parker should lower the offer to $5 billion -- just to piss everybody off, just before he withdraws it. I wonder what his Plan B (for Buyout) is?
 
I don't think it will even get that far.

I agree!

I think all of this is an exercise in futility. Parker doesn't really want to merge all he wants to do it draw this out until DAL is ready to exit CH11. At that point DAL becomes a much less desirable candidate for UAL.

IMHO, once Tilton hired Goldman Sachs (back in Sept), Parker saw that UAL was serious and that they were going to merge with someone. The obvious candidate was CAL but they were set at going at it alone. So who does that leave? AA, not happening, NWA, nope. So he got wind that UAL was going to go after DAL or vice versa, leaving USAir with nothing but a stronger competitor in the North East, CLT and DCA/IAD/BAL. By making a play for Dal (coincidentally back in late Sept right after Tilton started aggressively shopping UAL) Parker puts a stop to any Delta merger. All he has to do is drag it out 6 months and then walk away.
 
I agree!


IMHO, once Tilton hired Goldman Sachs (back in Sept), Parker saw that UAL was serious and that they were going to merge with someone. The obvious candidate was CAL but they were set at going at it alone. So who does that leave? AA, not happening, NWA, nope. So he got wind that UAL was going to go after DAL or vice versa, leaving USAir with nothing but a stronger competitor in the North East, CLT and DCA/IAD/BAL. By making a play for Dal (coincidentally back in late Sept right after Tilton started aggressively shopping UAL) Parker puts a stop to any Delta merger. All he has to do is drag it out 6 months and then walk away.

That's a very interesting perspective. I agree that Parker probably never really intended to go after DAL, but rather possibly just run interference or shake the merger tree a little and see what might fall out.
 
I wrote this a month ago:
http://www.suntimes.com/business/717...ited25.article

The answer is all here if you read between the lines.

For those of you not familiar with investment banks. Goldman Sachs is the the premier bank, the competition is a distant second. When Tilton hired them he sent out VERY VERY clear signals that he wants a merger partner. You don't hire Goldman Sachs to "explore options" their are plenty of other banks that will do that for you much cheaper. You hire Goldman to, "get er done". They don't get involved unless they stand to make big big money.

"Continental Airlines Inc., parent of the fifth-largest U.S. carrier, has long been considered a good potential partner for United because of a complementary route network. Delta Air Lines Inc., currently restructuring in bankruptcy, has been speculated about for similar reasons. Either merger would create the largest U.S. airline.
Michael Roach, consultant with the Roach and Sbarra airline consultancy, said US Airways Group Inc. could also make sense as a partner, even though United was rejected in its 2000 bid to acquire US Airways for $4.3 billion cash and $7.3 billion in debt"

My guess is that CAL has decided to pass on any UAL deal (this has always been their public stance). Now Tilton was left with who? Not NWA, Not AA. Who is left? Parker or Greenjeans. Tilton didn't need to hire Goldman Sachs to figure this out.

Goldman was hired to cut a deal. They specialize in Mergers and Aquisitions. So they naturally would go to all parties to determine an interest. In this case the ONLY interested parties are Delta and USAir. The way it works folks is Goldman goes to Parker and Greenjeans and trys to broker a deal.

SO, Parker KNOWS exactly what is going on, with an possible UAL/DAL merger. Tilton hired Goldman back on 9/25 so this is not something new. In fact todays, WSJ article even mentions that Parker tried to buy DAL back in, you guessed it September. DAL/UAL must have been close because, Parker feels that he is getting squeezed out and the only way to stop the deal is with a hostile takeover.

Greenjeans was brought in to broker such a deal (look at his resume) Greenjeans is pissed because he just lost a ton of money, He and Tilton would have become very rich men.
I had to crack up when I saw this, it took all of 24 hours for the Law firm hired by Parker to post this:

Scroll down to, "Q. What type of transactions does Skadden handle?

"US Airways Group, Inc. in its unsolicited proposal to merge with Delta Air Lines, Inc."

For those of you not fimilar with the M&A world, Skadden Arrps is one of the premier M&A law firms in the world, if not number one. Just look at the deals that they have been in on.

The way this works is Tilton hires Goldman to find a buyer. Goldman hires Skadden to see what the legal ramifications of the deal are and to represent their client.

Guess who represented America West in their USAir purchase? You guessed it, just scroll down further on the same link.

In fact Goldman, Sachs & Co. hired Skadden Arps as financial advisor to BellSouth Corporation in its acquisition by AT&T Inc.

Just follow the money.
In less then 24 hours the law firm is touting this as their deal.
http://www.skadden.com/printFriendly...practiceID= 5
 
This is from 12/16's WSJ:
"United is so desperate to merge I'm surprised they're not listing on eBay."
--Michael Boyd, aviation consultant at Boyd Group Inc

As history unfolds I believe that Parker will come out playing one of the best hand of poker ever played in aviation. i don't think he really wants Delta, he would much rather compete with an independent DAL, then a UAL/DAL combination.

Once he tied up DAL, that left Tilton with no one. Now the only way that he can bail out and take all his millions is to accept the CAL mgt's offer. CAL mgt knows that he wants out and they are free to call the shots in this deal now that, AA, NWA and DAL are out of the picture.

The sad thing for the UAL folks is that that POS Tilton, never intended on running an airline. He came in filed CH11, spend millions on hiriring the McKensey group and a bunch of high priced suits to develop a plan. Then he diced and sliced the labor groups and vendor contracts until their was nothing left. In the process he got a tremendous stock deal. Now he wants out and when Parker took DAL away the only game town is CAL.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by General Lee

The DOJ is under the Executive branch of the government (Bush). Bush owes no favors to congress (especially the Dems) and will do what he wants and if he wants to see his ATSB poster child do well, that's what'll happen.






Hey, I didn't post that statement.... That was someone else, with my name on it.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
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This is from 12/16's WSJ:
"United is so desperate to merge I'm surprised they're not listing on eBay."
--Michael Boyd, aviation consultant at Boyd Group Inc

As history unfolds I believe that Parker will come out playing one of the best hand of poker ever played in aviation. i don't think he really wants Delta, he would much rather compete with an independent DAL, then a UAL/DAL combination.

Once he tied up DAL, that left Tilton with no one. Now the only way that he can bail out and take all his millions is to accept the CAL mgt's offer. CAL mgt knows that he wants out and they are free to call the shots in this deal now that, AA, NWA and DAL are out of the picture.

The sad thing for the UAL folks is that that POS Tilton, never intended on running an airline. He came in filed CH11, spend millions on hiriring the McKensey group and a bunch of high priced suits to develop a plan. Then he diced and sliced the labor groups and vendor contracts until their was nothing left. In the process he got a tremendous stock deal. Now he wants out and when Parker took DAL away the only game town is CAL.


You may have broken the code. My emphasis on these posts has been why a deal between DAL/US should not and would not go through. You may have figured out the underlying reason why it was offered. Or, Parker could be an ego maniac, wanting world domination.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
General Lee;1200042 Hey said:
Yeah I just noticed that too. I don't know how that happened. I was trying to respond to the knuckle head who thinks Congress will have no say in an airline merger.
 
Yeah I just noticed that too. I don't know how that happened. I was trying to respond to the knuckle head who thinks Congress will have no say in an airline merger.

I know. That was weird how my name was attached to that.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 

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