DAL/NWA meger analysis

Sedona16

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So, based on the second chart below (retirements) and if a guy were 1000 from the bottom has anybody calculated about how long to reach the 50% point on the seniority list? I know upgrades can be had in less desirably bases on Jr equipment much sooner but to get half way up the list are we talking 15 years or more? So a guy who is 35 now isn’t necessarily guaranteed an upgrade until he’s 50? Sorry, I haven’t really calculated this out, just wondering if someone else has crunched these numbers?

One other point of interest. Notice there are not really any significant retirements from the NWA or DAL side until starting around 2016. At this point NWA averages about 100 more per year (not a significant amount) until around 2020 (a four year period) where more on the DAL side kick in. Notice the substantially higher numbers (reaching greater than 250 plus more per year) on the delta side that lasts for several years. This chart really doesn't seem to substantiate all the bravado we hear of thousands of retirements in the short term from NWA. A few more yes, a huge amount no. If you believed what these guys are saying 4000 pilots over at NWA are age 63 right now buying Winnebago’s ready to punch out in two years

 
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higherflyer

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With a VERY rough look at the numbers, it seems the list it trying to keep everyone at the same relative seniority percentile on the combined list as they were on the original lists.

I looked at about a dozen positions on the list and they were almost exactly the same point on the combined list as they were on the originals.
 

AirportBum

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So, based on the second chart below (retirements) and if a guy were 1000 from the bottom has anybody calculated about how long to reach the 50% point on the seniority list?
Based on a rough look at the chart you posted, it will be a little while.

I'm coming up with roughly 6500 (age 65) retirements by the end of 2024. That's obviously a little more than half the list. Assuming we don't shrink any, it would take you (1000 from the bottom) approx 14-15 years to get to 50%.

This would have been 9-10 years IF 65 had not passed. Of course IF Grandma had balls she'd be grandpa . . . . I digress.

It's a very rough estimate, but probably somewhat close. The good news is after that, you're still looking at 500+ retirements a year, so movement will be good (if we don't shrink and they don't pass age 70 between now and then.)
 

Sedona16

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Based on a rough look at the chart you posted, it will be a little while.

I'm coming up with roughly 6500 (age 65) retirements by the end of 2024. That's obviously a little more than half the list. Assuming we don't shrink any, it would take you (1000 from the bottom) approx 14-15 years to get to 50%.

This would have been 9-10 years IF 65 had not passed. Of course IF Grandma had balls she'd be grandpa . . . . I digress.

It's a very rough estimate, but probably somewhat close. The good news is after that, you're still looking at 500+ retirements a year, so movement will be good (if we don't shrink and they don't pass age 70 between now and then.)
Looks like FO then senior FO until the last five to ten years then senior widebody captain (assumming NWA doesnt hoard the twice as many Delta already has vs NWA) is where my plan sits right now.
 

tbkane

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As the last guy hired at DAL prior to 911 I would have been half way up the list in 2017 but now thanks to ALPA its 2022. Yes 16 years to half way now 21.
 

Cobraair75drvr

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FWIW, here are the nwa age 65 retirements that are senior to a fall of 95 hire:
1/1/200930781490 90091/1/201030711484 70161/1/201130591474 1202101/1/201230451462 1411121/1/201330271449 1832131/1/201429111421 1162563281/1/201527431378 1684679431/1/201625651325 1784085531/1/201723711275 1947470501/1/201821661218 2057177571/1/201919291144 23711350741/1/202016621055 26713048891/1/20211402959 26011846961/1/20221106812 296103461471/1/2023851666 25570391461/1/2024629505 22235261611/1/2025427362 20221381431/1/2026264241 16319231211/1/2027190182 74510591/1/2028129128 6125541/1/20298585 4401431/1/20305252 3300331/1/20313131 2100211/1/20321717 1400141/1/20331111 60061/1/203466 50051/1/203511 5005

Keep in mind that 65-70% of our pilots have been going at 60 so far. Remember our senior guys have a full frozen DB, unlike any of the Dal pilots. We will have many more pre 65 retirements for the next 10-12 years due to this. This is a fact.
 

IXLR8

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wow, that's pretty!!!
 

FDJ2

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Keep in mind that 65-70% of our pilots have been going at 60 so far. Remember our senior guys have a full frozen DB, unlike any of the Dal pilots. We will have many more pre 65 retirements for the next 10-12 years due to this. This is a fact.
You must have missed the testimony from your own witness.

Q. Okay. And from an actuary standpoint, again to be clear, if one were trying to predict in the future -- trying to predict the future with respect to retirement and attrition behavior, again from an actuary standpoint, it would not be scientifically, if I can use the word, proper to use the small amount of data for the period between the change in the law and today to reach any conclusions?

A. And not just because of the small amount of data, but because circumstances are atypical right now and won't necessarily be predictive of what will happen over the long term.
 

~~~^~~~

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BTW, what is a "meger analysis"?
Sowy my "r" key is almost wo n out on this 386. But it has the math co-p ocesso so it's a keepe
 
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Diesel-9

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"You're going to have a really strong airline in Atlanta, and you haven't
been able to say that for a while," Delta President Ed Bastian said in an
interview last week. Guess Ed is optimistc. What is the DAL opinion of this guy?
 

michael707767

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"You're going to have a really strong airline in Atlanta, and you haven't
been able to say that for a while," Delta President Ed Bastian said in an
interview last week. Guess Ed is optimistc. What is the DAL opinion of this guy?

Overall, I have a good impression of him. Whether or not I agree with everything he does or says, I do think he wants to run a good airline and is not here just to line his own pockets.....like Leo and his gang.
 

FDJ2

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"You're going to have a really strong airline in Atlanta, and you haven't
been able to say that for a while," Delta President Ed Bastian said in an
interview last week. Guess Ed is optimistc. What is the DAL opinion of this guy?
Bastian is very smart man who is neither your friend or your enemy. He's a pragmatist who will listen to reason regardless of the source. Many airline executives automatically reject pilot input, Bastian doesn't. Lee Moak was able to convince him that there was value in working with the pilot groups on the front end of the merger, most executives would have automatically rejected that concept as a self serving argument. While Bastian recognized that it did serve the pilots, he also recognized that it served the new venture as well. As long as our interests are in line with each other we can work with him, when they are not we'll have to adopt a different approach. JMO
 
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