CRJ: Out of Production-Boyd

[FDJ2]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]The Boyd Group Advantage[/FONT]

Aviation Perspectives & Insights
Available Nowhere Else​

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]Hot Flash[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida] - October 31, 2005[/FONT]

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[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]CRJ: Out of Production[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]
Just Like We Called It[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]The Boyd Group Fleet Forecasts since 1999 have advised clients - aircraft manufacturers, OEMs, airlines, as well as the attendees at our annual Forecast Conferences - that there was a limit to the number of "regional" jets the US airline industry could absorb, and that there would be an excess of these airplanes by the early 2000s.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Three years ago, we forecast that the end had come for any further large orders for

these airplanes. There were more in operation and on delivery than the industry could support, our independent data showed. Add to that the relatively slim economics, tight ergonomics, and what was a propensity for some carriers to treat these airplanes and the passengers they carried as second-class, and the outcome was not in doubt. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Naturally, the usual suspects disagreed. Some forecasts indicated nearly indefinite demand for these things. "Everybody knows," they contended, that RJs are the future of the airline industry.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Actually they're the future of desert real estate. As we pointed out at our recent Forecast Conference, look for around 200 (CRJs and ERJs) to find themselves enjoying retirement over the next three years.[/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Beginning of The End of The RJ Era. [/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Last week, facing a lack of new orders, Bombardier announced it would end production of the 50-seat CRJ. The stretched versions continue, but even there, the writing is on the wall. [/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Bombardier is in a very difficult position. They know full well that the CRJ line has run its course. But a follow-on, the 130-seat C-Series, won't be out for at least three and maybe four or more, years. That means there could be a thin period for airliner production coming sometime in the next 36 months. It's possible that the company may address this by offering trade-outs to existing CRJ-200 operators to swap for new 70-seat CRJs. The cabins and the consumer issues are the same, but the operating economics, assuming there are passengers to fill the extra seats, are a whole lot better. This could keep things running at the factory pending the roll out of the C-Series.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]The 90-seat CRJ? Forget it. Most major airlines will opt for mainline jets in that category, such as the Embraer 170/190 platform.[/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Going forward, higher fuel prices, consumer backlash, and other issues will point to slowly reduced applications for RJs.[/FONT]​

 

[smellthejeta]

I'm confused... A CRJ-900 is a regional jet, but an E170/E190 is a "mainline" jet? Is the classification about the manufacturer, seating capacity, or which seniority list of pilots fly it?

 

[spinproof]

..end of an era, Huh? ...sorta like pensions at mainline.

 

[Phony Marconi]

Are "regional jets" defined by their size?

I think the better definition would be:

pilot pay.

Of course airlines would rather fly 100-130 seaters in most markets if their labor cost is the same as a 50- or 70-seater.

And that day is coming.

Just because a plane has 100 seats, I still call it a "regional jet" if the captain makes $55K a year.

That day is coming.

If you flew a 747-400 for $60/hr, would you consider yourself a "mainline" pilot?

It's all about money. Forget the artificial labels "regional", "mainline." They all suck now.

 

[Tarzan]

I keep coming back to the same line of thought. Ten years from now things will very different form what we see today. No more fifty seaters, mass retirements due to the 60 rule and not as many pilots. It's getting hard to get aviation loans to do this stuff. Key Bank is out the aviation loan business and how many flight schools have closed in the last two years?

Things look like dog squeeze right now, but I believe in about five years, things will be trending back our way because companies are not going to be able to play the SJS card anymore.

 

[FlyComAirJets]

Original post by resident regional pilot-basher FDJ2. Figures.

 

[General Lee]

Original post by resident regional pilot-basher FDJ2. Figures.

Our Cinci chief pilot told me last week that Fred Butrell recently said all of the 50 seaters at Comair are currently up for sale. Any mention of that? Some of our birds will be parked too, but most are up for lease renegotiation. That didn't sound like what Butrell said.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[On Your Six]

Let's just face it, the CRJ/ERJ is a crappy aircraft from both an economics perspective and a passenger comfort perspective (nice bins and ultra-low, neck pain-inducing windows in the CRJ). Even though fares are low because of competition, passengers expect more in terms of comfort and quality and many business passenger willingly pay more to avoid cramped RJs. The E170/E190 completely obliterates the CRJ/ERJ in terms of comfort and economics.

Airlines that rely upon either the CRJ or ERJ are destined to have serious problems if more comfortable and economic alternatives (like the E170) become more widely flown. That's just the way it is... These RJs will only do well if they are placed on non-LCC competitive routes and they feed a hub where higher fares can be justified (e.g., service from Salt Lake to Pasco or ATL to Newburgh). Placing them in service up against E170s or LCCs (e.g., AirTran 717s) would not be sensible if the airlines want to keep their best customers.

Has Comair finalized its order for E170s or is that still "up in the air"?

 

[LAXSaabdude]

I'm confused... A CRJ-900 is a regional jet, but an E170/E190 is a "mainline" jet? Is the classification about the manufacturer, seating capacity, or which seniority list of pilots fly it?

Sigh... If you can come up with the answer to that one, please go over to
http://www.eaglelounge.com and explain it to them! There is a group over there that is just convinced that everything will be juuuuust peachy if we sh!tcan all of our CRJ700s and get E-170s instead. Mention the fact that the pay will be exactly the same, and it falls on deaf ears.

LAXSaabdude.

 

[Thedude]

Ever seen the poster when the B-737 first came out. It was being touted as a regional jet. My how time have changed and not necessarily for the better.