Cranky Flier: SWA continues Cutting ATL, DL must be thrilled

[GhettoBeechjet]

Lear

1. The AAI pilots choices were in fact worse than the OSW pilots. My point is neither group was given a good other option.

2. The math doesn't support that a majority of AAI pilots will be commuting to the West Coast. Less than 1/3 will. I can back that up with facts but the explanation is lengthy

3. According to my source there will be only 100 classics left at the end of 2015 which is 68 less than we have now. We are losing 88 717s between now and then while getting 86 deliveries from Boeing for a loss of an additional 2 airframes for a total loss of 70 airframes. 70 airframes equates to 700 too many pilots plus the 300-400 you quote based on a flat fleet means 1000-1100 too many pilots. I don't believe that they will carry that many extra pilots.

4. I own being a pessimist at this point. Show me some evidence of anything good going on at SWA right now and I'll tone it down. I just don't see how or where it starts to get better. It looks to me like we now need to get into the Carribean and Latin America in a big way to avoid a contraction. The problem is we will have to beat Spirt, DL, and a restructed AA for every inch of it. I really appreciate my job and am greatful for it. Just like all of most of us AAI and OSW alike I want and need the combined company to suceed. That being said I think there is a real risk we are becoming Sears.

 

[scoreboardII]

Not Sears, Pan Am.

Rumor today is training center is spooling for 24every two weeks starting Jan, that's 550ish by end of 2013, how many does that leave?

 

[Britpilot]

Not Sears, Pan Am.

Rumor today is training center is spooling for 24every two weeks starting Jan, that's 550ish by end of 2013, how many does that leave?

About a thousand.
However, we don't show 48 a month for the first 7 months of 2013, so that number will be higher.

 

[Citrusflyer]

Not Sears, Pan Am.

Rumor today is training center is spooling for 24every two weeks starting Jan, that's 550ish by end of 2013, how many does that leave?

If that's the rumor then it's false. The bids have gone out for Jan., only 27 for the month. Nothing on the slate for Feb, or later, as of yet. The TP, as of now, has 166 total going over by the end of June. If they were gearing up we'd be seeing bid notices - there are none.

Plus, there are no 737 to 717 'transitions'. At this point they need to happen if they're going to flow everyone over without either completely decimating a fleet on the AT side - or they'll need to announce waiving that requirement. But neither is happening on that front either.

Of course, they could decide the 737 guys don't need new hire training and fast track them. Nah - wont happen. Why move fast in this industry when you can rely on name ID only, right? I'm sure the new Caribbean and S. American markets will wait until they get everything in one sock.

 

[Lear70]

Lear

1. The AAI pilots choices were in fact worse than the OSW pilots. My point is neither group was given a good other option.

True, from each pilot group's independent point of view.

2. The math doesn't support that a majority of AAI pilots will be commuting to the West Coast. Less than 1/3 will. I can back that up with facts but the explanation is lengthy

I'm thinking primarily the pre-merger F/O's who, by and large, got stapled. There are 800 or so of us mixed in with about 300 of your pre-merger group then about 250 or so new-hires at the bottom. That's 1,350 pilots, give or take.

How many F/O's are there in PHX, OAK, DEN, and LAS? All of which are a good 5+ hr commute from most East Coast cities (if not worse with OAK). I submit that only 15-20% of those F/O's in those bases want to be there versus holding a line in a base East of the Rockies, therefore the vast majority of our F/O's will be commuting West for a long time to come. It is what it is.

3. According to my source there will be only 100 classics left at the end of 2015 which is 68 less than we have now.

That's a draw-down of nearly 6 Classics per month, which doesn't fit

a.) The fleet plan unless SWA plans to DRAMATICALLY cut service at many airports it currently serves.

b.) The stated goals of SWA management which is to maintain their current route structure without killing off service.

c.) The history of SWA airlines which is not to reduce the size of the airline and furlough people.

It just doesn't add up. Not sure who your "source" is, but it doesn't make any logical sense nor does it follow what is publicly-known nor what has been privately discussed of the SWA 5 year fleet and marketing plan.

We are losing 88 717s between now and then while getting 86 deliveries from Boeing for a loss of an additional 2 airframes for a total loss of 70 airframes. 70 airframes equates to 700 too many pilots plus the 300-400 you quote based on a flat fleet means 1000-1100 too many pilots. I don't believe that they will carry that many extra pilots.

Again, you are using a number that is unverified (68 Classic retirements), not to mention you're not figuring in attrition which is known to be approximately 400 give or take by the end of 2015 and continuing to nearly 650 by the end of 2016.

4. I own being a pessimist at this point. Show me some evidence of anything good going on at SWA right now and I'll tone it down. I just don't see how or where it starts to get better.

I understand your position, but I also don't see any "evidence" on your side to support that argument, only rumor. Do I think the Classics will start to go away in 2015? Probably, especially towards the end of the year, but I don't think we'll see nearly 6 aircraft leave the fleet without replacement aircraft for at least half that. Could be wrong, it's happened before.

It looks to me like we now need to get into the Carribean and Latin America in a big way to avoid a contraction. The problem is we will have to beat Spirt, DL, and a restructed AA for every inch of it. I really appreciate my job and am greatful for it. Just like all of most of us AAI and OSW alike I want and need the combined company to suceed. That being said I think there is a real risk we are becoming Sears.

LOL - Sears? I was thinking more like Costco.

In all seriousness, I agree with you about the Caribbean and LA, and I believe that's coming in a big way come 2015. We shall see...

Rumor today is training center is spooling for 24every two weeks starting Jan, that's 550ish by end of 2013, how many does that leave?

That pace doesn't pick up until May according to the numbers put out last month by Russ M. We have a spreadsheet detailing classes for each month through June. We've also been told to expect that pace (48 a month) to continue through the rest of the year after May due to the 717's leaving property.

That should leave us around 1,000 ACTIVE pilots (those not on Med or Mil leave) to transition in 2014.

Not to mention about 300 of those will have to stay into 2015 to man the 717's before they go to DL in 2015 as-scheduled, so closer to around 700 or so active pilots to get through in 2014. It's do-able, but will require running almost 100 pilots a month for nearly half the year through transition training once you take out the holiday months and such.

 

[humveedriver]

AirTran added Bermuda last May and Cabo June of this year. Really hope to see SWA add at least two new destinations internationally during the transition. That would maintain pace with one new international destination a year, since the acquisition was announced. I am pulling for St Croix and Guadalajara.

 

[texman]

Humm, I think we will more than you think

 

[canyonblue]

... once you take out the holiday months and such.

Take out the holiday months? :laugh:

 

[Lear70]

Take out the holiday months? :laugh:

I highly doubt they're going to train over Thanksgiving and Christmas, not for full initial indoc and sims at any rate.

Case in point, they skipped Nov and Dec training cycles and started back up for Jan.

We'll see, but I don't count on those months as full transition classes starting months.

 

[canyonblue]

Case in point, they skipped Nov and Dec training cycles and started back up for Jan.

Yes, that was this year. They have, and will, train 12 months a year. Just make sure you plan your training month well. Many have wished they didn't have recurrent either in the summer or in December.