Comair Shrinking More And Faster?

[PuffDriver]

General, you know I love you, but you're just being an a-hole on purpose here. These guys are watching their airline get dismantled. Have some compassion.

The real problem wasn't that CMR was demanding fair wages, the problem was that 9/11 hit just months later, and the possibility of the other regionals being able to piggyback on their gains disappeared. CMR was left out in the cold, on their own with rates that far exceeded the rest of the regional industry. Had 9/11 not happened, it's very likely that other regional carriers would have shortly followed with similar pay rates, leveling the playing field and preempting the "race to the bottom" that we ended up with after 9/11. Because the bargaining pattern got screwed up, CMR got screwed.

Not really. The house of cards was bound to fall at some time. Comair had a failing business model with the RJs--as evidenced by the fact that Delta cannot get rid of 50 seat flying fast enough.

The Comair pilots like to think that they had it in the bag with their airline, but as has played out, predictably, the airline was going nowhere. Delta liked them right where they were, and proved it when they bought them. Enter the era of the RJ, and overly lucrative fee for departure agreements--which also couldn't last. Those days, predictably, ended. Suffice to say that RJ compensation peaked long ago, and mainline contracts have bottomed. Economics finds the way.

Unless you believe that oil will head back down to 30 bucks a barrel, the days of the RJ are quite limited. Careers in the regional feed field will likewise be limited. Combine that with a likely strong correction to the American way of life, inevitable further consolidation with associated capacity, meaning pilot job, cuts, and stagnation is going to be the way of life in the regionals for some time to come.

 

[dojetdriver]

Unless you believe that oil will head back down to 30 bucks a barrel, the days of the RJ are quite limited.

The numbers of the 50 seat RJs are going to become limited, but it will never really go away. Just like the 1900, -8, Saab, EMB120, etc. It's true purpose and intent will finally come full circle as far as it's utilization goes. It will have it's place, just not ANYWHERE near the scale it saw between 9/11 and up until recently when the legacies FINALLY decided there were simply too many of them, engaging in the CPA/FPD agreements are money losers at high oil prices, the costs of operation due to better pay (relative term) of the crews operating them than in the 90's, etc etc etc.....

Careers in the regional feed field will likewise be limited. Combine that with a likely strong correction to the American way of life, inevitable further consolidation with associated capacity, meaning pilot job, cuts, and stagnation is going to be the way of life in the regionals for some time to come.

Don't disagree with the rest, and that day can't come soon enough.

 

[nimtz]

Not really. The house of cards was bound to fall at some time. Comair had a failing business model with the RJs--as evidenced by the fact that Delta cannot get rid of 50 seat flying fast enough.

The Comair pilots like to think that they had it in the bag with their airline, but as has played out, predictably, the airline was going nowhere. Delta liked them right where they were, and proved it when they bought them. Enter the era of the RJ, and overly lucrative fee for departure agreements--which also couldn't last. Those days, predictably, ended. Suffice to say that RJ compensation peaked long ago, and mainline contracts have bottomed. Economics finds the way.

Unless you believe that oil will head back down to 30 bucks a barrel, the days of the RJ are quite limited. Careers in the regional feed field will likewise be limited. Combine that with a likely strong correction to the American way of life, inevitable further consolidation with associated capacity, meaning pilot job, cuts, and stagnation is going to be the way of life in the regionals for some time to come.

Spot on! Look the reality is Comair and to extent COEX were in a small club that deployed legions of 50 seaters back in the day. Pre 9/11 that made them look stand out as remarkable feeders. Back in those days I remember hearing all the time that we only needed 10 people to break even on a departure.

9/11 blew those Cinderella days to pieces. As mainline scope clauses fell so entered the CHQ and Mesa's of the world. By 2003 the fact your airline flew RJ's went from unique to SOP. Everything flowed downhill from there. Special tip of the hat to Skywest for ensuring that 70 seaters would be flown for next to nothing as well btw.

It is the way the Commuter/Feeder/Regional biz has always been; leverage is nil. Any you guys heard of Air New England or Westair? So for all those who want a career at a regional good freaking luck!

Your one hope is that mainline bends over on scope once again so you get to fly an actual 737-500 size jet for Republic wages. If you are happy with that congrats. Maybe Joe Merchant will buy you a Red Stripe.

 

[badog]

Look the reality is Comair and to extent COEX were in a small club that deployed legions of 50 seaters back in the day. Pre 9/11 that made them look stand out as remarkable feeders. Back in those days I remember hearing all the time that we only needed 10 people to break even on a departure.

On point there.

9/11 blew those Cinderella days to pieces. As mainline scope clauses fell so entered the CHQ and Mesa's of the world. By 2003 the fact your airline flew RJ's went from unique to SOP. Everything flowed downhill from there. Special tip of the hat to Skywest for ensuring that 70 seaters would be flown for next to nothing as well btw.

Once again, well said.

It is the way the Commuter/Feeder/Regional biz has always been; leverage is nil. Any you guys heard of Air New England or Westair? So for all those who want a career at a regional good freaking luck!

Unfortunately, MOST of us are stuck here for a few more years.

Your one hope is that mainline bends over on scope once again so you get to fly an actual 737-500 size jet for Republic wages. If you are happy with that congrats. Maybe Joe Merchant will buy you a Red Stripe.

Nah, I'm all set. I don't know how much longer I can live this way.