Comair Growth?

[Plug]

y'all feel free to spin your arguments whichever way you want.

a couple of years ago, Comair was in the middle of getting 30-some aircraft. ASA was getting a bunch too. Comair had already gotten rid of the Brasilia, so it was fleet growth. ASA still had a few left, so it was more fleet replacement. now with ASA's 25-odd airplanes, it's fleet growth, bringing them up to or close to Comair's fleet size. Comair may jump ahead briefly with the 10 CRJ-200s and the possibility of up to 25 new 70-seaters, but I imagine ASA will always be a similar size and will grow accordingly. You can bet they'll get a bunch of airplanes when the contract is signed, as I believe Comair did.

some of our 1- and 2-year FOs have bailed to go to CHQ and other places for a quicker upgrade. I hope they get it, even Comair's FO pay isn't much to write home about.

i wouldn't bet the farm on a quick upgrade. plenty of qualified guys on the market vying for jobs, 1000 jet PIC is hardly going to get the majors knocking on your door. on the flip side, a regional with strong pay/work rules isn't a sure bet either. ACA/Indy Air was a secure, top regional not long ago. either way, we all lose if our parent legacy carrier goes down the tubes.

Captainv,

I think you're dead on with this one. What is the point of whipsawing 2 groups to death if they aren't around the same size. As of right now ASA is taking delivery of 32 airplanes from the RFP (25 original ASA, and 7 from Skywest that we going to be financed by ASA and leased to SKYW, yeah how f'd up is that!) and the ATR's will be staying through 2007 except those 500 series birds, 7 I think.

ASA got the RFP birds probably because Skip was able to convince DCI that he could get that 2 year extension where costs were known. He got it in the form of slow progress in negotiations. Another thing that is keeping costs down is the attrition rate. Folks are jumping ship left and right going to other airlines or out of aviation all together, the DFW closure has caused several resignations also. This keeps costs down also.

My prediction is that we have a TA to vote on at or around the 3 year anniversary of these negotiations (fall 05'). When we sign a deal expect to see us brought up to whatever size CMR is because once again costs will be known.

My $.02 anyway!

 

[ohplease!]

we are actually getting 32 new planes 32-7=25, the 7 additional were to go to skywest but now we are getting them. And nobody ever said we were getting rid of the 12 ATR's that I am pretty sure we own outright. if you like Comair so much. GO WORK THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!. Negotiating a new contract is not concessions. I do not think any airline has ever signed a new agreement the day after the current one , so is that a concessionary period? You have some serious Al Gore math going on.

ASA actually owns 2 of the origional 12 and they ARE going to go away when the lease runs out (if not sooner) in '07. That has been announced by Skip and thats not far away. You are right. I did forget the 7 Indy planes as well as 4 70's we most likely will get (according to Skip). So, lets see...thats NET 17 planes. Still a pretty good deal for us.

I didn't say I liked CA that much. Just like their deal a little better (17 vs. 35(25/70s vs. 4/70s) and higher pay even with the freeze). I'm sort of locked in to ASA because of seniority type stuff. I might not be the sharpest tool in the shed but, I'm not leaving here to be an FO at another Regional. However, I agree with PLUG that this fall we'll most likely get a new deal and some new planes soon thereafter.