Upgrade?
The math is pretty simple. Obviously there are external variables that we can't account for (industry rebound, LCC hiring, F/O leaving etc.)
Basically there are only two things that create movement on a seniority list:
attrition, and new airplanes.
As of right now there are a little over 1800 people on the list and the most junior captain is a little over 1000.
So just for the sake of picking a number lets say that you have around 900 people ahead of you before you upgrade.
That means:
- either 900 people leave (either by retirement or leaving for greener (?) pastures) or...
- The company needs to buy 180 airplanes (180 airplanes = 1800 pilots = 900 captains/900 FOs)
If 100 pilots a year leave/retire (and that number is high right now), it will still be 9 years to an upgrade.
Another variable is F/O attrition. There are a number of FOs who are refugees from other airlines and who may already have the elusive PIC turbine time. When the industry rebounds these FOs may leave which will generate very little movement on the seniority list. There are also FOs who, seeing the slow movement off of reserve and to the left seat are abandoning Comair to go someplace where they perceive the upgrade time to be faster (such as Chautauqua). FO attrition might move you up the FO list, but it does very little to create movement across the system seniority list. It is, in essence, artificial movement. (although, trust me -- the more people you have beneath you the more insulation you have from furlough. Thats a good thing!)
The previous poster's guess of 7-20 years is about as accurate as you can get since there are too many external variables that can have an impact. If we had a crystal ball i'm certain that many of us would have taken a different road.
But let me give you a little bit of advice from a guy who has collected far too many uniforms.
If you're GOING to be an FO for the better part of a decade, you want to be at an airline where you are compensated fairly for your experience. You want to be at an airline with a contract which will protect you and provide you with a good quality of life.
Comair is a good place to be an FO. And since we're all going to be FO's for a pretty long time, we might as well make the best of it.
The airline that has a rapid upgrade today could be out of business tomorrow -- that should not be the only factor effecting your decision. Choose the airlines that you apply to based on the unfortunate reality that you may, in fact, have to retire from that airline. If the industry comes to a dead-stop, where do YOU want to be?
Good luck with your decision.