Colgan 3407 Down in Buffalo

[Saab guy]

I Wanted To Show My Solidarity For All My Former Colgan Brothers In This Time Of Sorrow. Prayers To All The People Involved And To The Crew's Families.

Peace And May God Rest Their Sole's

 

[ksu_aviator]

Just out of curiosity, does the Q400 use hydraulics to control the elevator?

Now, this may not be possible, but I'm still trying to figure out why an elevator would move to full nose up when the flaps are extended. The only common link the two systems may have is hydraulics.

So I was wondering if maybe the hydraulic line developed a leak and it just happened that by extending the flaps, the primary hydraulic reservoir was emptied leaving no hydraulic fluid to provide elevator control. Then, because the autopilot trimed for a nose up condition, the trim tab took control of the elevator, causing the elevator to go to the nose up stop and thereby causing the erratic pitch up that led to the stall/spin.

Ok, ok, before anyone lays into me, I know its wild/off the wall, but it bugs me that 2 pilots can be flying along in normal flight and 26 seconds later they are dead. So I'd like to find a logical explination.

 

[Sig]

So I'd like to find a logical explination.

Thank god! Why didn't someone else come up with this idea sooner?

What's an explination, and what does logic have to do with it? When you find it, present it to the nearest NTSB member and smile for the cameras. Make it look like one of those novelty oversized checks, and have your name writ large across the top!

I, for one, am holding my breath until the explination appears. Keep working, this is a noble cause. Hopefully others will join in your datamining quest.

 

[Minimaniac]

Just out of curiosity, does the Q400 use hydraulics to control the elevator?

Now, this may not be possible, but I'm still trying to figure out why an elevator would move to full nose up when the flaps are extended. The only common link the two systems may have is hydraulics.

So I was wondering if maybe the hydraulic line developed a leak and it just happened that by extending the flaps, the primary hydraulic reservoir was emptied leaving no hydraulic fluid to provide elevator control. Then, because the autopilot trimed for a nose up condition, the trim tab took control of the elevator, causing the elevator to go to the nose up stop and thereby causing the erratic pitch up that led to the stall/spin.

Ok, ok, before anyone lays into me, I know its wild/off the wall, but it bugs me that 2 pilots can be flying along in normal flight and 26 seconds later they are dead. So I'd like to find a logical explination.

While possible, I find your theory unlikely for one simple reason (and seeing as I know nothing about the Q400, there may be an even more simple reason)... A hydraulic system failure or loss of fluid to that magnitude should have been annunciated to the crew. This would have been very obvious on the FDR and/or CVR recordings, and would have been released at the same time the aircraft's final attitude and motions were released. In absence of such, I think it is safe to say that no alerts were given to the crew beyond the stick shaker and pusher.

It seems as though this will be a crash as a result of a stall condition. Perhaps it was a tail stall, or perhaps it was a wing stall that resulted from too low an airspeed given the additional weight and drag of the ice on the aircraft. I remember there still being some bumpy rides that night. A decent gust or bump could have been the difference between a safe outcome despite the ice, and the outcome we have.

 

[ms6073]

I, for one, am holding my breath until the explination appears.

Sure you didn't mean to say esplanation as in 'Luuuuccccccy, you got sum esplainin todo'?

Naturally everyone is curious - most for professional reasons - but we all want answers. Unfortunately, in the absence of anything definitive from those tasked with investigating the accident, forum members are left to speculate, postulate, and theorize as to possible causes. There is no reason to get sanctimonious as I doubt anyone intends disrespect towards family and friends of those affected by the crash.

 

[Captainzero1]

My thoughts and prayers go out to the crew. One observation I see is that the lead investigator for the NTSB has caused some of these problems because I don't think he explains himself very well. The recommendation concerning icing is one point. No determination has been made wether or not the crew was flying through severe icing so why mention the AP shouldn't be on or off. Many airplanes went through that area that night and none reported severe icing so for them to have the AP on was perfecrtly acceptable.
Monday morning QB, I think it was a tail plane stall. I did one of those in the sim once and it wasn't pretty. As soon as I called for final flaps off I went. The recovery is opposite and when you are 800 feet above the ground, are you really going to remember. This accident in my opinion will serve as a wake up call to all pilots who operate in the northeast during the winter. As soon as your airplane starts to behave funny with a configuration change, bring it back to its original config and evaluate. If its a no/partial flap with the speed up landing then so be it. I realize some of us operate from some limited strips with performance issues, then go to a nice big one. I know easier said than done, but no one is going to tell me how to fly my airplane.
Have the Horizon guys who fly the Q across the cascades day in and day out chime in on how this airplane handles ice?
Fly safe everyone.

 

[surplus1]

I agree with the last thing you said...

Dash8s do not have, at least not that I know of, a "less than stellar" history of prop problems.

I don't think that the Swedes (launch customers for the Q-400) would agree with you. Hopefully the overspeed problems they experienced have been eliminated.

I believe the type you refer to in "D" was the Brasilia? Weren't they Hamilton Standard props that were shedding blades? At least one of those events was traced to MX.

Yes, the type I was referring to was the Brasilia and yes the props were by Hamilton Standard. However the single instance of sheeding a blade was NOT what I was referring to. The problem I meant to refer to was propeller overspeed. The cause was a defect in the govenor design. To my knowledge it has been corrected but not before it killed a lot of people. The problem was not corrected as a reult of any NTSB report. It was corrected because dedicated airmen who flew the type took the time out of their own lives to solve the problem on behalf of themselves and their fellow airmen. They were not NTSB technicians. They were just pilots who cared.

The speculated and conjectured and investigated on their own, until the finally found the cause. Then they had to force it on a manufacturer who fought bitterly to deny it.

Overspeeds in the Q-400 haven't killed anybody as yet and hopefully never will, but they've come too close for my comfort. All the more reason to make other pilots aware of them and hope they will study those events with a view to avoidance. I have no loyalties whatever to DeHaviland, Bombardier, or Dowty-Rotol and no regrets at not having experienced the wonders of the Dash8. My friend there are no perfect airplanes just as there are no perfect pilots.

The other Dowty-Rotol powered aircraft to which I made reference was the F-27/227 series (Fokker 500). It's propeller control system was a Rube Goldberg from my perspective and I don't regret at all getting out of it or telling anyone why I think it sucks.

Too many people, even Jim Hall (ex-NTSB chair who really oughta both a) know better than to think one accident, due to causes yet unknown, in an a/c type with no history of similar incidents is cause for grounding the fleet, and b) keep his yap shut) are in too much a rush to pin the blame for this crash on someone or something. How about we all wait for the facts?

Speculating is one thing - we all do it and it can produce some useful results. Rushing to judgement is another beast entirely, and it does no one any good while potentially damaging the innocent.

With all due respect I think that we are ALL waiting for the facts and I don't believe anyone has suggested grounding the aircraft or pinning the 'blame' on anyone.

In my own case, I have repeatedly stated that the scenarios I've posted are all hypothetical.

Talking about what may have happened is a natural thing among pilots and there is nothing wrong with it. What we say may all turn out to be hog wash in the final analysis but nevertheless, intelligent speculation doesn't hurt anyone and just might help many to avoid scary situations.

I don't think I've 'rushed to conclusions' at all, nor have I been critical of any individuals.

What I have said so far may not be the cause of this event and I know that. That is why it is hypothetical. On the other hand I'm not a FOX or CNN newscaster and everythigng I've said so far has a technical basis that is factual. You're free to shoot it down if you can, as is everyone else.

Yes, it is speculation but it is also based on knowledge and careful analysis, not hearsay (unless of course you put information released by the NTSB into the category of hearsay).

When the members of the Board are finished they will render an opinion based on a vote. It may be unanimous as to probable cause or it may not be. The majority will carry the day, but that will NOT mean they are correct. It will only mean that is the best they can do.

No one will ever know exactly what happened on that night, including the NTSB. They will collect data, conduct analysis and then make a decision based on a vote. Often they get it right. Sometimes they do not. That's the name of this game.

Keep that in mind as well.

 

[Sig]

There is no reason to get sanctimonious as I doubt anyone intends disrespect towards family and friends of those affected by the crash.

That wasn't sanctimony, that was acrimony.

 

[MALSR]

Just out of curiosity, does the Q400 use hydraulics to control the elevator?

Now, this may not be possible, but I'm still trying to figure out why an elevator would move to full nose up when the flaps are extended. The only common link the two systems may have is hydraulics.

So I was wondering if maybe the hydraulic line developed a leak and it just happened that by extending the flaps, the primary hydraulic reservoir was emptied leaving no hydraulic fluid to provide elevator control. Then, because the autopilot trimed for a nose up condition, the trim tab took control of the elevator, causing the elevator to go to the nose up stop and thereby causing the erratic pitch up that led to the stall/spin.

Ok, ok, before anyone lays into me, I know its wild/off the wall, but it bugs me that 2 pilots can be flying along in normal flight and 26 seconds later they are dead. So I'd like to find a logical explination.

The elevator is controlled by three separate hyd. systems during the approach phase. Loosing hydraulic control of the elevator is not very likely.

 

[firstthird]

One observation I see is that the lead investigator for the NTSB has caused some of these problems because I don't think he explains himself very well.

Chealander is a loose cannon. He is the same guy that showed up at the SWA 1294 press briefing after the MDW accident and proceeded to treat it like it was a fact finding mission when in fact it was to announce the findings. He made some comments about the pilots that were not at all supported by the text of the NTSB report.

I think that he is WAY out of line wrt this Colgan accident. Speculating and proposing theories to the press. I've never seen an accident investigation handled this way and find it disturbing and unprofessional. He needs to find another line of work and the NTSB needs to get back to their job of determining the causes of accidents and away from the job of feeding the press monster with regular, poorly thought out speculations.