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CH 11 and CH 7 predictions
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I don't think there is anything immature about the thread. The truth these days hurts, even here at ATA our management has put us in a large pile of dog crap.
As far as predicting the economic future of any company, well I think that is as accurate as picking stock reliably. However, the three companies mentioned are in a world of hurt right now.
Is it wise to ignore such issues? I don't think so. Personally, I'd love to know if ATA would be around a few years from now...if anyone in-the-know could shed some light on their predictions I for one would love to hear them.
Noam
As far as predicting the economic future of any company, well I think that is as accurate as picking stock reliably. However, the three companies mentioned are in a world of hurt right now.
Is it wise to ignore such issues? I don't think so. Personally, I'd love to know if ATA would be around a few years from now...if anyone in-the-know could shed some light on their predictions I for one would love to hear them.
Noam
FlyBoeingJets
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Not the best thread in the world, but I'll contribute anyway.
The manager that helped put ATA in a bind is Tague. Now he is at UAL trying to make that plane fly right. Big George, the man with majority ownership, is trying to put the pieces back together.
I don't see Delta doing the Ch 11 thing before ATA. I would put Delta a year out at worst. I think the pilots will cave and avoid it altogether. Look at AMR, they didn't go ch 11 when it was darkest. ATA could either pull it out nicely or go to Ch 11 earlier than a year out.
I am more interested in figuring out what aircraft the furloughed Delta pilots are going to fly. That will be interesting. If management and DALPA are forward thinking, they'll make an agreement to get 100 seaters and challenge Airtran, Jetblue and ATA in that category.
The manager that helped put ATA in a bind is Tague. Now he is at UAL trying to make that plane fly right. Big George, the man with majority ownership, is trying to put the pieces back together.
I don't see Delta doing the Ch 11 thing before ATA. I would put Delta a year out at worst. I think the pilots will cave and avoid it altogether. Look at AMR, they didn't go ch 11 when it was darkest. ATA could either pull it out nicely or go to Ch 11 earlier than a year out.
I am more interested in figuring out what aircraft the furloughed Delta pilots are going to fly. That will be interesting. If management and DALPA are forward thinking, they'll make an agreement to get 100 seaters and challenge Airtran, Jetblue and ATA in that category.
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Care to back that up w/ facts EINSTEIN?
Datafox and Noam,
And this is based on what analysis? Is this your personal opinion? Do you have MBAs from Harvard? So did Leo Mullin and he is partly responsible for Delta's mess...
Delta still has something like $1.5 billion in cash. Sure, fuel prices are still high but the economy is starting to rebound - business travelers are returning. Delta is now forced to recall pilots because their numbers are greater than 9/11 numbers - not a bad sign. High-yield European flights are booked solid for the summer and even Song posted a profit for Q1. Yeah, I guess you would view that as DOOM and GLOOM. Cost cuts are necessary - the pilots have been ready to negotiate for awhile now...
Delta management is using the threat of bankruptcy to pressure pilots into succumbing to their WILL. All without a PLAN. What is the plan? Is it a Dave Siegel plan with just major cost cutting? Is it a McKinsey-inspired Song plan? Nobody knows... But I guess the Delta pilots should just accept whatever management wants - right? Delta's management WANTS the pilots to be nervous and "cave in" to their demands without proper negotiations. Your ridiculous predictions with no hard analysis only adds fuel to the fire. I am sure DAL management will appreciate your efforts!
Your USAirways prediction might be accurate. The cards are somewhat stacked against them at this moment. A lot depends upon the regional jet financing negotiations going on right now with GE Capital. IF the lowered credit rating causes GE to cancel the financing, I have been told that USAirways will automatically be forced to pay a $90 million penalty (even if the financing fails). That's $90 million in cash that USAirways desparately needs in this high fuel cost environment. Chap. 11 might be near to force the unions to accept even lower wages - not good for a battered group of employees. I wish everyone there luck.
ATA is a difficult situation given their fuel exposure and precarious debt situation that was partially delayed. I hope that ATA can sign the deal and get the 717s integrated soon - perhaps take advantage of USAirway's pull out of PIT and CLT.
In the future, try to provide some rationale or facts when you make bold statements like these. Playing with peoples' emotions without facts/logic is not a good idea.
Datafox and Noam,
And this is based on what analysis? Is this your personal opinion? Do you have MBAs from Harvard? So did Leo Mullin and he is partly responsible for Delta's mess...
Delta still has something like $1.5 billion in cash. Sure, fuel prices are still high but the economy is starting to rebound - business travelers are returning. Delta is now forced to recall pilots because their numbers are greater than 9/11 numbers - not a bad sign. High-yield European flights are booked solid for the summer and even Song posted a profit for Q1. Yeah, I guess you would view that as DOOM and GLOOM. Cost cuts are necessary - the pilots have been ready to negotiate for awhile now...
Delta management is using the threat of bankruptcy to pressure pilots into succumbing to their WILL. All without a PLAN. What is the plan? Is it a Dave Siegel plan with just major cost cutting? Is it a McKinsey-inspired Song plan? Nobody knows... But I guess the Delta pilots should just accept whatever management wants - right? Delta's management WANTS the pilots to be nervous and "cave in" to their demands without proper negotiations. Your ridiculous predictions with no hard analysis only adds fuel to the fire. I am sure DAL management will appreciate your efforts!
Your USAirways prediction might be accurate. The cards are somewhat stacked against them at this moment. A lot depends upon the regional jet financing negotiations going on right now with GE Capital. IF the lowered credit rating causes GE to cancel the financing, I have been told that USAirways will automatically be forced to pay a $90 million penalty (even if the financing fails). That's $90 million in cash that USAirways desparately needs in this high fuel cost environment. Chap. 11 might be near to force the unions to accept even lower wages - not good for a battered group of employees. I wish everyone there luck.
ATA is a difficult situation given their fuel exposure and precarious debt situation that was partially delayed. I hope that ATA can sign the deal and get the 717s integrated soon - perhaps take advantage of USAirway's pull out of PIT and CLT.
In the future, try to provide some rationale or facts when you make bold statements like these. Playing with peoples' emotions without facts/logic is not a good idea.
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I gave up on trying to predict this stuff.
From what I had read on this board in the past, it seems that a lot of people had UA in Chapt 7 last year, and U in Chap 7 on several occasions the last being last month.
Since 911 we haven't had any majors/nationals declare chapter 7 and most analysts seemed to predict there would have been some by now from what I remember.
I'm not going to believe anymore rumors of chapter 7 until the last nail is in the coffin.
From what I had read on this board in the past, it seems that a lot of people had UA in Chapt 7 last year, and U in Chap 7 on several occasions the last being last month.
Since 911 we haven't had any majors/nationals declare chapter 7 and most analysts seemed to predict there would have been some by now from what I remember.
I'm not going to believe anymore rumors of chapter 7 until the last nail is in the coffin.
cargoflyr69
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SoBeFlyer
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Would someone please predict the dates and times the CH7/11 filings will be made? Please use UTC to foil the protests in the pool I am forming !!!
OakRBust, doesn't your avitar have a little window in it with all the answers? If so, GIVE IT A SHAKE so I can sleep tonight!!!
I just realized that there are four major categories of members here:
1. Those that just learned how to type and post wild ideas or questions in 25 words or less,
2. Those that are quite eloquent and polished typists that love to jump on the threads started by member number 1 and show off their skils and knowledge,
3. Those that sit in the wings and hold out for the right moment to swoop in for a laugh or stir the pot, and
4. Those that take things WAY too personal, then on rants about how offended they are.
OakRBust, doesn't your avitar have a little window in it with all the answers? If so, GIVE IT A SHAKE so I can sleep tonight!!!
I just realized that there are four major categories of members here:
1. Those that just learned how to type and post wild ideas or questions in 25 words or less,
2. Those that are quite eloquent and polished typists that love to jump on the threads started by member number 1 and show off their skils and knowledge,
3. Those that sit in the wings and hold out for the right moment to swoop in for a laugh or stir the pot, and
4. Those that take things WAY too personal, then on rants about how offended they are.
LiveFreeorDie
Large Member
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- Jun 30, 2002
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- 224
Can't predict the gov't
If the market had been allowed to work, a couple of airlines would have filed ch 7 by now. But the gov't stepped in and gave huge "stabilization" pay outs that has just postponed the eventual outcomes. The way some airlines have taken on debt, they will never beable to come out of the woods. It is just a fact. If you owe gobs of money and have huge intrest payments, you can not compete with similar companies opperating with little or no debt. I heard from one analyst Delta is p!ssing away more money per day than it used to profit in a good month pre-9/11!! How are you gonna recover from that?
If the market had been allowed to work, a couple of airlines would have filed ch 7 by now. But the gov't stepped in and gave huge "stabilization" pay outs that has just postponed the eventual outcomes. The way some airlines have taken on debt, they will never beable to come out of the woods. It is just a fact. If you owe gobs of money and have huge intrest payments, you can not compete with similar companies opperating with little or no debt. I heard from one analyst Delta is p!ssing away more money per day than it used to profit in a good month pre-9/11!! How are you gonna recover from that?
climbhappy
ex pat
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2002
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- 2,159
ch7 and ch 11 predictions
i think:
us air could make it. just like in the stock market when all the pundits are betting stocks to plummets, the opposite occurs.
could be the greatest corporate turnaround in aviation history.
i'm betting us air fights off the wolves.
ATA saw the $5.00 per share loss the other day. they could tank presumably. don't know enough bout the financials.
WILDCARD: domestic terror in the the us or IEDs start appearing near election time. the markets are scared right now.
dropped below 10k yesterday.
Delta; how are you going to grapple with labor issues? too big to matter in bankruptsy. too strong to file. management threat in my view. the economy will keep going. , they settle their problems and go on
THE QUESTION OF THE DAY> WHEN ARE AIRLINES GOING TO MEET AND START SETTING TICKET PRICES AT DECENT LEVELS TO ASSURE PAY, BENNIES ETC AND STOP CHARGING $29. it has been a race to the bottom.....that's why you have a thread like this posted!
i think:
us air could make it. just like in the stock market when all the pundits are betting stocks to plummets, the opposite occurs.
could be the greatest corporate turnaround in aviation history.
i'm betting us air fights off the wolves.
ATA saw the $5.00 per share loss the other day. they could tank presumably. don't know enough bout the financials.
WILDCARD: domestic terror in the the us or IEDs start appearing near election time. the markets are scared right now.
dropped below 10k yesterday.
Delta; how are you going to grapple with labor issues? too big to matter in bankruptsy. too strong to file. management threat in my view. the economy will keep going. , they settle their problems and go on
THE QUESTION OF THE DAY> WHEN ARE AIRLINES GOING TO MEET AND START SETTING TICKET PRICES AT DECENT LEVELS TO ASSURE PAY, BENNIES ETC AND STOP CHARGING $29. it has been a race to the bottom.....that's why you have a thread like this posted!
FlyingFarmer
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merikeyegro
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You can't do that. It's called anti-trust legislation. That would make airlines a cartel (kinda like the Federal Reserve System, which is ignored by the gov't, but that's for another thread) and, thus, would negate the whole "free market economy" thing.
Airlines should compete on their own, the "conservative" gov't should stop bailing out and subsidizing poor airlines, and the mess should be cleaned up at the end. Anything else creates a crappy industry. Healthy markets = more jobs for all in the end. Now, as far as good paying jobs go, that may not be the case...
climbhappy
ex pat
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merikeyegro:
it was a nice thought though. i know collusion is illegal and and oligolopy would be frowned upon by the fed. it would not be ,however, illegal for a ceo to stand up at the podium at a conference or trade show and call for more fiscal responsibility... or for more profitable pricing practices. Or just a"we have charge more for tickets people"
it was a nice thought though. i know collusion is illegal and and oligolopy would be frowned upon by the fed. it would not be ,however, illegal for a ceo to stand up at the podium at a conference or trade show and call for more fiscal responsibility... or for more profitable pricing practices. Or just a"we have charge more for tickets people"
merikeyegro
Well-known member
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I agree. More fiscal responsibility and a tacit proposal to increase fares are good ideas. Actually, airlines try it all the time. Continental and American are especially good at trying out the price increases. The problem that, as in pilot wages, someone is ALWAYS willing to do it for less.
Hell, even OPEC had an enemy in Saddam Hussein in the 1970s. He decided that he would rather sell more oil at a lower price. Pissed off Saudi Arabia and Iran. History tells me that these three were never good friends...
For every Continental and American, there is a Northwest and AirTran. A JetBlue and Southwest. You're right. It's a great idea. It'll just never fly. Too much money to make in lower fares
Hell, even OPEC had an enemy in Saddam Hussein in the 1970s. He decided that he would rather sell more oil at a lower price. Pissed off Saudi Arabia and Iran. History tells me that these three were never good friends...
For every Continental and American, there is a Northwest and AirTran. A JetBlue and Southwest. You're right. It's a great idea. It'll just never fly. Too much money to make in lower fares
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