CAL 3RD QTR Earnings Estimate

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The article gives the positive and negative suprises for several stocks, including AMR and CAL. Even with the SmartEstimate analysis negative, CAL stands to make about $111M for the third quarter. Should prove for an intersting year if the analysts predictions hold true.




http://www.forbes.com/2006/10/03/stocks-markets-investing-pf-ii-cz_sr_1004sf.html?partner=yahootix

Third-Quarter Earnings Surprises?
Shlomo Reifman 10.04.06, 6:00 AM ET


With the books of many companies closed on the third quarter, earnings season is nigh. The accompanying table lists a few companies whose third-quarter earnings per share are likely to deviate from consensus forecasts. Our tool here is the SmartEstimate, a metric developed by San Francisco-based research firm StarMine.
Like the Wall Street consensus estimate, a number tallied by Thomson IBES, StarMine’s SmartEstimate is a composite of earnings predictions from sell-side and independent analysts tracking a particular stock. But while the consensus simply averages all those estimates, the SmartEstimate is weighted to the most recent calls from analysts with the best track records for forecasting profits.
The market tends to react strongly when companies beat or miss the consensus forecast. According to StarMine, SmartEstimates that differ by at least 2% and at least one cent from their consensus anticipate earnings surprises 70% of the time.
To find a few likely candidates for positive surprises, we screened StarMine’s database for companies with SmartEstimates that exceeded consensus estimates by at least a 2% and one penny. For possible disappointers, we took the opposite tact and looked for SmartEstimates under their consensus by the same yardsticks. We excluded foreign stocks, unprofitable U.S. companies, as well as stocks that carried market values below $1 billion.
Phelps Dodge (nyse: PD - news - people ) passed our positive parameters. A SmartEstimate of $4.93 per share for the third quarter, now slated for an Oct. 23 announcement, stands 29 cents and 6% above Thomson IBES's consensus number.
Facing a slowdown in the housing market accompanied by anticipated lower product prices, Weyerhaeuser (nyse: WY - news - people ) is expected, says StarMine, to fall short of its average third-quarter estimate of 94 cents per share by 11 cents.
Positive Expected Surprises Or Revisions Current Quarter
Company
Price
Thomson IBES Consensus
StarMine SmartEstimate
SmartEstimate Difference
Expected Report Date
Beazer Homes USA (nyse: BZH - news - people )
$38.71
$1.65
$1.71
$0.06
Nov. 06
Marathon Oil (nyse: MRO - news - people )
71.94
2.99
3.16
0.17
Oct. 31
Overseas Shipholding Group (nyse: OSG - news - people )
59.18
2.59
2.67
0.08
Nov. 02
Phelps Dodge (nyse: PD - news - people )
80.05
4.64
4.93
0.29
Oct, 23
Snap-On (nyse: SNA - news - people )
44.33
0.43
0.45
0.02
Oct. 23

Prices as of Oct. 3. Sources: StarMine; FT Interactive Data and Thomson IBES via FactSet Research Systems
Negative Expected Surprises Or Revisions Current Quarter
Company
Price
Thomson IBES Consensus
StarMine SmartEstimate
SmartEstimate Difference
Expected Report Date
AMR (nyse: AMR - news - people )
$24.55
$0.57
$0.51
$-0.06
Oct. 19
Continental Airlines (nyse: CAL - news - people )
30.52
1.30
1.24
-0.06
Oct. 16