Boyd: "Okay, Panic Is Now Acceptable Behavior..."

[arthompson]

Having worked for UA at the time I will tell you that BK was *not* an inevitable conclusion. The new management team took over and filed for the sole purpose of forcing the renegotiating of debts as opposed to trying to renegotiate out of court.

 

[Dangerkitty]

So tell us about mr. Boyd's predictions about the Ichan agreement to back away and how that would guarantee the survivability of TW.
Tell us about mr. Boyd's predictions on the merger of TW and AA and how that would go. Since you are probably most familiar with that story let's see if you can remember the Boyd group predictions. This would be a great place to start looking at predictions vs. reality.

I asked you a question. Yet you can't seem to answer it.

Predictions are just that, predictions. Perception is reality.

 

[Dangerkitty]

How about this one?

But Michael Boyd, an aviation consultant and principal of the Boyd Group, said Monday that United could well be strong enough to avoid bankruptcy, and criticized Creighton for implying otherwise.

"I think he did it as a ploy to scare the unions," Boyd said. "The downside for United is it scares the vendors. It scares the public.

The key word here is COULD. United could be strong enough to avoid bankruptcy. No where did he say that there was no way in heck that UAL would not file for bankruptcy.

I think that for the rest of his quote Boyd is dead on.

If you are trying to paint Boyd as clueless you are going to have to do a much better job than that.

 

[race#53]

The key word here is COULD. United could be strong enough to avoid bankruptcy. No where did he say that there was no way in heck that UAL would not file for bankruptcy.

I think that for the rest of his quote Boyd is dead on.

If you are trying to paint Boyd as clueless you are going to have to do a much better job than that.

OK, spin this one;
AIRLINES: Billions of dollars in cost-cutting by the U.S. airline industry should produce results in 2005 with a number of major carriers, including Northwest Airlines, generating profits.

The International Air Transport Association says that worldwide airlines probably will make a combined profit of $1.2 billion in 2005, after losing nearly $35 billion during the past four years.

The trump card is jet fuel costs. Profits depend on oil prices continuing to slide instead of moving up into record-breaking territory.

"Going forward, we think oil will fall into the mid-$30 a barrel range that will allow the major carriers to start making money," said Michael Boyd, president of The Boyd Group, aviation consultants in Evergreen, Co. "It should be a strong year for many airlines. But any little glitch in the fuel supply line could create a problem."

 

[Flopgut]

OK, spin this one;
AIRLINES: Billions of dollars in cost-cutting by the U.S. airline industry should produce results in 2005 with a number of major carriers, including Northwest Airlines, generating profits.

The International Air Transport Association says that worldwide airlines probably will make a combined profit of $1.2 billion in 2005, after losing nearly $35 billion during the past four years.

The trump card is jet fuel costs. Profits depend on oil prices continuing to slide instead of moving up into record-breaking territory.

"Going forward, we think oil will fall into the mid-$30 a barrel range that will allow the major carriers to start making money," said Michael Boyd, president of The Boyd Group, aviation consultants in Evergreen, Co. "It should be a strong year for many airlines. But any little glitch in the fuel supply line could create a problem."

So, what is he wrong about? The last sentence sums it up nicely. Has not everyone been surprised about what oil has done?

 

[UALjan15]

I can't search back far enough on Boyd's site to find the article, but does anyone else remember Boyd praising US Airways for their restructuring plan during BK#1? He didn't have anything nice to say about UAL's business plan (rightly, and obviously so), but I remember him contrasting it with the US plan, which he showered with praise.

I think the guy has a good understanding of the industry and a pretty good prediction record, but I can't stand the smugness of his delivery. The classic know-it-all.

 

[race#53]

I can't search back far enough on Boyd's site to find the article, but does anyone else remember Boyd praising US Airways for their restructuring plan during BK#1? He didn't have anything nice to say about UAL's business plan (rightly, and obviously so), but I remember him contrasting it with the US plan, which he showered with praise.

I think the guy has a good understanding of the industry and a pretty good prediction record, but I can't stand the smugness of his delivery. The classic know-it-all.

Here is one from April, 2002;
Still, Michael Boyd, an airline industry analyst and president of Evergreen, Colo.-based Boyd Group Inc., said US Airways has shown signs of improvement.

Last month, the airline brought in a new president and CEO, David Siegel, and is negotiating with the Air Line Pilots Association to increase the number of more efficient regional jets it flies.

"I think there's no question US Airways has turned a corner," Mr. Boyd said.

I have to admit he does get quoted more than Lowecur by other writers.

 

[Phil O'Sopher]

The key word here is COULD. United could be strong enough to avoid bankruptcy. No where did he say that there was no way in heck that UAL would not file for bankruptcy.

I think that for the rest of his quote Boyd is dead on.

If you are trying to paint Boyd as clueless you are going to have to do a much better job than that.

That is the point. Boyd never says much of anything that isn't couched in maybe's, could's, might's etc. It's like that commercial on TV from Monex where they say "Now may be the best time ever to own gold..." no sh1t Sherlock. Of course it MAY be the best time to own gold...or it may not be, after all they didn't say that it WAS the best time. SWA hedging strategy is weak compared to Boyd's. I have never read anything truely insightful from the man. I'm sure his group can amass accurate data and trend analysis etc but that doesn't make him an expert. The fact that he is quoted frequently in the media is a reflection of poor journalism. Kit Darby is also quoted frequently.

 

[miles otoole]

That is the point. Boyd never says much of anything that isn't couched in maybe's, could's, might's etc. It's like that commercial on TV from Monex where they say "Now may be the best time ever to own gold..." no sh1t Sherlock. Of course it MAY be the best time to own gold...or it may not be, after all they didn't say that it WAS the best time. SWA hedging strategy is weak compared to Boyd's. I have never read anything truely insightful from the man. I'm sure his group can amass accurate data and trend analysis etc but that doesn't make him an expert. The fact that he is quoted frequently in the media is a reflection of poor journalism. Kit Darby is also quoted frequently.

Exactly- he's done a good job of getting his name out there, but little else.

http://www.aviationplanning.com/ourteam.htm

When the media needs a "expert update" they now call on him. Tell us Mikey, who are the next mergers? What will the industry look like in 4 years? Enough of the generalizations. Wifeypoo is the Exec VP apparently. 5 people and they all have "titles." Love it!!!! hehehehehe-it's the American way. "I own my own company. I am the CEO of Jones Amway international."

 

[bafanguy]

Boyd never says much of anything that isn't couched in maybe's, could's, might's etc.


.

How could anyone comment on the airline industry using any other terms ?

 

[Dangerkitty]

Exactly- he's done a good job of getting his name out there, but little else.

http://www.aviationplanning.com/ourteam.htm

When the media needs a "expert update" they now call on him. Tell us Mikey, who are the next mergers? What will the industry look like in 4 years? Enough of the generalizations. Wifeypoo is the Exec VP apparently. 5 people and they all have "titles." Love it!!!! hehehehehe-it's the American way. "I own my own company. I am the CEO of Jones Amway international."

Well, you do have a point there. Can't argue with that.

It does seem that his company has quite the incestious relationship doesn't it?

 

[smellthejeta]

I also don't see how you can make predictions in the airline biz without qualifying your statements, or explaining the impact of the variables that goes into your analysis. When the airlines release press statements talking about their business, they must include something called a "forward looking statement" if they're publiclcy traded.

I also agree that what Boyd writes is neither breaking news or earth-shattering. All of his bullet points in this article are right. I mean, come on, when you have a stream of 20 UA/UAX departures waiting for takeoff on 19R at IAD, exactly what was the hurry in getting them off of the gate on time? What was the reason they were scheduled to be off of the gate so close to one another? They can only get in the air so fast, so why waste fuel and block time on the taxi-way instead of saving both leaving the plane on the gate? I think there are savings to be made with the proper use of the hub-and-spoke model; in other words, I think using a more efficient schedule would save a lot of money.

OTOH, Boyd says the airlines can recover from $2/gal Jet A, but he seems to leave supporting details of his assumption out.

 

[Tref]

Yep. I had to scratch my head in bewilderment at the original comment about your post being the most retarted thing ever (or whatever it said). Seemed like a perfectly reasonable question/comment you had, and a completely over-the-top response.

Thanks. Glad I wasn't the only one scratching. Hope he really is good with money, 'cause he's sure not winning any friends with his charming personality.

Tref
P.S. Love the avatar!