BizJet Deliveries about to peak? What say you, Honeywell?

LRvsH25B

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Worldwide business jet deliveries will rise 8 to 17 percent next year to what may be a peak as high fuel costs and global economic worries depress demand, according to a forecast by Honeywell International Inc (HON.N) released on Saturday.
The world's largest maker of cockpit electronics said a survey of 1,866 corporate jet users showed early signs of slackening demand in the form of fewer flying hours and more used jets going on the market, said T.K. Kallenbach, vice president of marketing and product management at Honeywell.
Honeywell estimated worldwide business jet deliveries hitting 1,200 this year, up 15 percent from 1,020 last year. It forecast deliveries of 1,300 and 1,400 next year, with demand possibly peaking in 2009 or 2010.
Honeywell polled corporate flight departments from May through mid-August, before the most recent tightening of the credit crunch, which has hammered global stock markets and raised fears of a sharp economic downturn.
Textron Inc (TXT.N), Gulfstream International Group (GIA.A) and Bombardier (BBDb.TO) produce corporate jets. General Electric Co (GE.N), United Technologies Corp (UTX.N) and Rolls-Royce Group PLC (RR.L) make engines for them.
Deliveries of new business jets tend to lag economic activity because they are bought and paid for over 3- to 4-year cycles, Kallenbach said. But there are other signs that demand for business jets is starting to be hit by high fuel costs and global economic worries.
"If you have a shift in the economy, business aviation doesn't really see the effects for 12 to 18 months on new aircraft purchases," Kallenbach said. "We're seeing a drop in flight hours, especially in small aircraft, small business jets and we are seeing a very rapid increase in used aircraft availability."
The eventual fall-off in deliveries of new aircraft will likely be "moderate" due to the long backlog of orders, he said.
Business-jet sales tend to be less dependent on financing than sales of big commercial jets, he said.
"A lot of these are paid for by cash," he said. "It's not like the airlines where you have a huge number of aircraft leased and leased back into the airline system."
Honeywell planned to release the forecast this weekend at the National Business Aviation Association trade show in Orlando, Florida.
The Morris Township, New Jersey-based company, which also makes thermostats and other systems to automate large buildings, said its forecast assumes the U.S. economy will grow at less than 2 percent this year and in 2009.
 

Gulfstream 200

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The key there is DELIVERIES....aircraft purchased 2-3 years ago, when everyone was flush with money..

Id venture to guess the ORDER market is vastly different, at least here in the short term.
 

400A

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The key there is DELIVERIES....aircraft purchased 2-3 years ago, when everyone was flush with money..

Id venture to guess the ORDER market is vastly different, at least here in the short term.

Orders are still strong as well, the key though is where they are going. I do not know about other manufacturers but HBC says around 60% are exports for them. It has to do with other growing economies like India and China, and the weak U.S. Dollar.
 

BoilerUP

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Orders are still strong as well, the key though is where they are going. I do not know about other manufacturers but HBC says around 60% are exports for them. It has to do with other growing economies like India and China, and the weak U.S. Dollar.

I think a Cessna rep said the number for them was 60-65%...
 

Gulfstream 200

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Orders are still strong as well, the key though is where they are going. I do not know about other manufacturers but HBC says around 60% are exports for them. It has to do with other growing economies like India and China, and the weak U.S. Dollar.

Recently?

People I talk to in demo at all the large makers say Russia, China etc...have all but dried up.

Chinas economy certainly cant be considered "growing" and Russias has fallen about 70%.

While not doom and gloom...Id say the party is over for a little while...

6-12 months ago I know 75% of the sales were going overseas...might still be that percentage, but Id guess the numbers themselves are a fraction of what they were...especially if the used aircraft market is an indicator.
 
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ditchpilot

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look around the FBO

Anyone noticed less crowded ramps lately?
I sure have. No arrival or departure delays in TEB or EWR. Parking near the front row at the FBO without being towed to the back 40 before you get the engine covers on.
Look at the aircraft slot speculators selling their positions before delivery for zeo profit.
Corporate aviation will be fine (thanks to the hassel of airline travel) but there will be another 12 - 18 months of lean times. I would not be investing in aircraft manufacturers.
If you have a front seat sit tight and hope the guys in back have not bet the companies future on false financial reports to keep their stock price high and the stock options worth more then the paper they are written on.
 

400A

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Recently?

People I talk to in demo at all the large makers say Russia, China etc...have all but dried up.

Chinas economy certainly cant be considered "growing" and Russias has fallen about 70%.

While not doom and gloom...Id say the party is over for a little while...

6-12 months ago I know 75% of the sales were going overseas...might still be that percentage, but Id guess the numbers themselves are a fraction of what they were...especially if the used aircraft market is an indicator.

When we took delivery of the Hawker in June the VP said the middle East, India and South America was still strong. I have no figures to back this up, just a conversation about business over dinner.

My friend who is a demo Pilot is taking a lot of King Airs and Premiers over to those areas.
 

icefr8dawg

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definitely slow, charter is slow at numerous operators and so many of the open positions have closed up that we're all sitting tight here in TEB
 
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