Bird in Hand vs. CoEx recall

[I.P. Freley]

I see...

Is that 50 upgrades for the quarter, for the year, or what?

 

[Sam Fisher]

Actually, there will be 72 upgrades by the end of February. More to come once another bid comes through in a month or two....Things are finally looking up!!!

Sam

 

[House_X]

Sounds like you know the complete history of Express Jet, but no, you're wrong. The furloughs were primarily due to the flow-through, which is now gone. When in the future a downturn in the economy happens, we will suffer the same effects as any other express type carrier. This is the first time COEX or XJT has furloughed in the past 10 years or there about.

There will be upgrades in the very NEAR future due to growth. Couple that with the CAL recalls in the first quarter and you see the movement at XJT will be quite swift to say the least.

It seems a bit odd that Coex is suddenly having swift upgrades and fast recalls...seems like they would slowly recall the FO and upgrade the displaced CA. I'm not trying to pi$$ on anyone's parade...but I would be a bit dubious in leaving a CA upgrade to go to COEX...the stock market maybe up, but the overall economy is still in shambles. Majors are still furloughing.

 

[lookup]

Well there was almost some worthwhile dialog in the forum.. This guy at CA has some tough choices to make and in this industry, make a wrong move today can cost many years of time and many MANY $$s. IMO, he's selling short to get "the good life" in NJ flying right seat at CoEX for quite a while when he could suck it up, put on a smile, and fly the crap out of flipper for a couple of years and wave bye bye to the baby jets...

Too bad WrightAvia had to steer off into the ditch. Failed that V1 cut!

WrightAvia wrote:
Sounds like PINHEAD, already has an answer to his own question. If your an "aviation god" why don't you just tell your boyfriend what to do with his pathetic life and shut the f@ck up.

 

[Loafman]

Amen, brutha.

 

[bobbysamd]

Wrong decisions v. wrong decisions

This guy at CA has some tough choices to make and in this industry, make a wrong move today can cost many years of time and many MANY $$s. IMO, he's selling short to get "the good life" in NJ flying right seat at CoEX for quite a while when he could suck it up, put on a smile, and fly the crap out of flipper for a couple of years and wave bye bye to the baby jets...

I heard it said once that no matter what decision you/Loafman's friend makes, it'll be wrong. How about that for food for thought?

 

[lookup]

Well of course Bobby!!

There are only so many John Travolta type positions available per decade, and upgrades look pretty slow right now.. So everyone else who wants to fly jets and look cool doing it is stuck in this world...

Oh to be rich and good looking... Hell I"ll take either!

L

 

[LearLove]

He should probably stay at Commutair. At 25 he should be working on stacking the logbook for the next big hiring push - due in probably two years or so. He could be seen by majors as a seasoned airline Captain, or as another turboprop gear yanker depending on his choice.

I feel qualified to comment on his situation, since I managed to make a number of poor choices early on in my career. I thought the majors would hire an experienced corporate guy back in the late '80's. Wrong. I thought lots of SD3-60 and Dash-8 FO time would get some interest. Wrong. It wasn't until I left my comfortable job at one of the legacy regionals (there's a new term for ya) to be a street Captain for a shady third-rate one, that I got ANY interest from national jet operators.

I don't know if your friend is married or not, but if he isn't, the choice should be simple. Take the upgrade and build the requisite 1200 PIC turbine needed to take it to the next level. So what he'll only make a little more as a Captain at Commutair than he would as a FO at CoEx? He needs to look at the time it will take to get his dream job. Because it's not the extra pay he makes in the next couple of years. It's the extra years of major airline pay he'll miss out on when he's 55 - 60 years old. Waste a couple of years and it could cost him a million or two. No big deal, huh?

I fully agree with NJ. (Although the last 4 sentances of the second paragraph sound like something Kitt would say. Warning NJ, WARNING - Kitt is evil, step away from the evil guy.)

Anyway, there are some questions to ask though. First, can he put off the recall and stay at CA for say another 6 months and upgrade and get some PIC? If so do that, get some PIC and go back to Jersey.

Second, you say he's a Jersey boy. Well living at home and flying at home, that goes along way. Especially if at the age of 25 he lives with the parents, even at Coex FO pay be could saving big bucks that could be a downpayment on a house, or pay off the car and toss into a roth that now $$$ invested at 25 will be just as good as the 55-60 major years, but he knows it will be there unlike the airline pay/pension.

I guess it depends, I don't think he'll go wrong either way, at 25 there is plenty of time to recover. If it were me and I could I'd delay the call back and get some PIC then return to Coex. However, if delaying is not the case then it goes on how much he wants to be back home and if he has faith in Coex to grow and expand.

In the end remember, "Fate is the Hunter". The airline industry has a horrible way of destroying some of the most careful and best laid plans of an unluckey aviatior. Believe me I'm fixing some of that as we speak, many guys on this board know of a decision I made almost 3 years ago, based again on

some of the most careful and best laid plans

only to have them explode in my face.

Best of luck to your friend

 

[B1900DFO]

NJCapt "It's the extra years of major airline pay he'll miss out on when he's 55-60 years old. Waste a couple years and it could cost him a milion or two..."

I don't know about that statement. Maybe if you were hired in the late sixties. But these days of LCC's operating without pensions and maxing out around two hundred grand per year would definitely require more than a "couple years" to make a million or two on the backend. Unfortunately the majors have to match the sub-standard contracts at Airtran, ATA, Frontier, AWA, Jet Blue, ACA, etc. I would say a couple million is closer to your total career earnings at one of those places than the last couple years.

It is depressing when you look at what we, as a pilot group, have given up over the last 5 years in career expectations. This job is turning into more of a trade job than the world class profession it used to be.

 

[Capn Sac]

Have a friend who just got recalled to COex. One of the reasons they are recalling so many, is only 20% of those recalled are coming back. Take the Capt job.

 

[njcapt]

NJCapt "It's the extra years of major airline pay he'll miss out on when he's 55-60 years old. Waste a couple years and it could cost him a milion or two..."

I don't know about that statement. Maybe if you were hired in the late sixties. But these days of LCC's operating without pensions and maxing out around two hundred grand per year would definitely require more than a "couple years" to make a million or two on the backend. Unfortunately the majors have to match the sub-standard contracts at Airtran, ATA, Frontier, AWA, Jet Blue, ACA, etc. I would say a couple million is closer to your total career earnings at one of those places than the last couple years.

Weeelll, I'm basing my prediction on rates and benefits at ATA, where I work. I think our contract is commensurate with other mature bargaining units at low cost carriers. Here is how I support my financial statement.

187.24 12+ years hourly rate
x 85 realistic average monthly hours
x 12 months/year
= 190,984
x 12% company contribution to Money Purchase Plan based on gross pay
= 22,918
Total = 213,902 annual gross pay

So... It would take four years and eight months to make a million bucks. Miss the boat during one of the decade long hiring cycles and Mr. Commutair has lost more than two million bucks. OK, a real accountant would subtract his pay received from CoEx, but the loss in late career income would still be dramatic. Remember, these figures are based on today's rates of pay and accounting for inflation alone, would bump these upward at 3% or so a year over the long term.

But then again, it's only money.

 

[minrest]

I'm biased here, but I too would go back to CoEx after I could no longer defer. While CA is growing, their growth and their income is predicated on filling seats. CoEx has guarenteed revenue per seat mile through 2008. All of the expansion at CLE with CA could disappear overnight if CA stops making money. It wouldn't be the first time that CA saw a massive fulough/pilot downgrade. There are no guarentees in this industry, but I believe that right now CoEx has a better/more controllable future. With CoEx's projected growth, he would probably see the left seat in 2006.

And please stop referring the being an FO as "Slinging gear." FO's at every airline do a hell of lot more than that.

 

[lookup]

Regardless of all the opinions and advice, it looks like a December CoEx class is in his future :-(

I hope best case at CoEx happens for him and he gets the upgrade sooner than the 5-7 years I am betting will happen. He's gonna be hating life when he sees a junior CA pilot make his/her way to ATA years before him because he took the "stable" route at CoEx... Boy I hope I am wrong for his sake..

(maybe he'll save the thread to review in the years to come...)

 

[flywithastick]

I have a question about airline crew seniority/pay (specifically at CoEx). If you work 5 yrs in the right seat, does this count toward left seat seniority as far as a salary is concerned. In other words, does this previous 5 yrs as FO count toward this seniority at upgrade, or does the salary/pay rate clock start over when you change seats? Thanks for your patience.

 

[Loafman]

Yes.

 

[Typhoon1244]

On another note: congratuation, lookup, for having one of the more surreal avatars I've seen in a while!

 

[lookup]

he he... thanks.. I wish I could claim credit, but alas, I just "leveraged" it like the rest of the world does...

Still not a cool as Loafman's boob avatars...!