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ATA's White Knight = SWA? H. Hegeman Opinion

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ATA717Pilot

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Jun 22, 2004
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ATA: White Knight Revealed; AWA Plan May Not Be As Crazy As It Seems; Key Players Behind the Scenes

If an airline wants to make a bid for ATA, or assets that it controls, that plan will have to be filed with the bankruptcy court no later than this Friday.

While you may think you know the major players in this story, and how the current deals shape up, you may be in for a surprise. Read on.

White Knight Comes Out of the Closet: Surprise!

Last week we talked about how reports from a number of ATA sources had management at the airline intimating to employees that a "White Knight" had emerged in the ongoing potential acquisition of the airline. As I understood it, this new deal would keep the bulk of the airline intact -- and would also see the airline losing only some of its gates at Chicago.

Okay. Sitting down?

The White Knight is Southwest Airlines.

Let me explain.

From the get-go, all indications have been that Southwest was going to make a bid to take over gates at Midway ONLY. The word was that the proposed deal from the airline would seek roughly 7-8 gates. No employees. No aircraft. No nothing.

Yes, well, from what I understand, that bid proposal has now changed.

Reports I hear say that the new deal from Southwest will offer more cash than the original $90 million AirTran deal.

No surprise.

The deal would also have Southwest taking control of 5-6 gates at Midway.

Again, no surprise.

What is the surprise is that apparently Southwest has also offered to enter into a marketing/codeshare agreement of some type with ATA, one that would allow the airline to continue with a portion of its operations out of Midway.

In other words, the Southwest deal that we should see opened up next week in bankruptcy court should look more like the AirTran deal that is now on the table.Only better. (That is, if you are George Mikelsons. It will look much worse, needless to say, if you are Joe Leonard.)

As a result, from what I understand, George Mikelsons is very happy with this prospect, as it would allow him to continue running much of his airline, and it would more or less put him in business with Southwest. Employees are going to be happy as well, as, unlike the AirTran deal, it sounds to me like this revised plan would assure more employees of continued employment.

However, bankruptcies are never simple, and this proposed deal is no exception.

Southwest: Eye on the Big Picture

Why would Southwest risk doing such a move -- a move that seems so unlike Southwest?

I think you only need to look down the road to get the answer. In other words, Southwest is willing to put up DIP financing for ATA, and let the airline continue to operate in a limited sense for only one reason. It assumes that longer term ATA will not succeed.

And when that happens, then Southwest would be in the driver's seat at Midway.
And AirTran and America West would both have been blocked from gaining a bigger presence at Midway.

Pretty slick.

Now, let's look at the revised deal from the viewpoint of ATA management. Or rather, George Mikelsons, as I really don't think any of the top executives at the airline have much to say in any of this. George runs the ship. Stem to stern.

So -- from what I understand, George likes this deal.

But what George either does not know -- or refuses to acknowledge-- is this: Not everyone on the creditor's committee thinks that he should continue at the helm.

In other words, from what I understand, there are those involved in the process who think that whatever is left of ATA as part of the Southwest deal should be led by someone other than George.

George -- do you know this? ...
 
Jetblue may show up

Holly also hinted that Jetblue may show up at the bidding process. It is beginning to look more and more like these gates are going to get split. The question is who will get what? Southwest's real objective here is not so much to get 5-7 more gates, but to make sure that AirTran doesn't get all 14. How about 4 gates for Jetblue for $60M, 2 gates for Southwest for $30M, and 9 gates to AirTran for the $90M?:confused:
 
Disregarding the fact that Midway would be just about worthless to JBLU, as has been pointed out to you on several occasions. And senior leadership at JBLU is opposed to operating at the airport. I suppose opinions can change, but I don't see much upside to establishing a presence at MDW, much less paying $60M for a miserable four gates at a miserable hemmed in urban airport.
 
Blue Dude said:
Disregarding the fact that Midway would be just about worthless to JBLU, Care to elaborate? as has been pointed out to you on several occasions. And senior leadership at JBLU is opposed to operating at the airport. Then why has mgt been so critical of the gates being sold? I suppose opinions can change, but I don't see much upside to establishing a presence at MDW, much less paying $60M for a miserable four gates at a miserable hemmed in urban airport.
That's why you fly, and they manage.;)
 
Elaborate? Sure. MDW is unsuitable for any but short range operations. Could make it to JFK most of the time, Florida some of the time and the west coast not at all. So what good is it?

BTW, I haven't seen "management" be all that critical of the the MDW gate sale, only the LGA slot sale.
 
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Blue Dude:

The Airbus cannot make the west coast from MDW? And Florida only sometimes? I guess that is why ATA got the 737s as opposed to the Airbus. Moot point now, of course, but I didn't realize the Airbus was so limited out of MDW, or other short airports.
 
Blue Dude said:
Elaborate? Sure. MDW is unsuitable for any but short range operations. Could make it to JFK most of the time, Florida some of the time and the west coast not at all. So what good is it?
I assume you mean with the 320. Are the 738's and 757's operated by ATA, and the 737NG by SWA, that much more fuel efficient than the 320? My guess is they are not, but it all boils down to safe and conservation flt ops mgt, right?

Neeleman said he wants to only run to MDW from JFK for now, but I believe he has grander visions than that. It would be a perfect 190 base.:)
 
Can do it, but not with a full load. Add in a hot day in Chicago, and it's not feasible.

And Lowecur, takeoff performance has nothing to do with fuel efficiency.

Sure, MDW might make a dandy 190 base, and maybe that's what they have in mind, if they have MDW in mind at all. But it would seriously limit JBLU's flexibility to operate with an efficient fleet mix, which is one of the main selling points for operating the 190 at all. It would also expose JBLU to basically the entire LCC competitive universe in Chicago, while ORD is relatively free of such problems.
 
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Blue Dude said:
Can do it, but not with a full load. Add in a hot day in Chicago, and it's not feasible.
Limit the loads to a safe level. If 140 pax is safe along with enough fuel, then you do that till the 190's arrive. It's doable with a little flexibility.
 
Blue Dude said:
.

Sure, MDW might make a dandy 190 base, and maybe that's what they have in mind, if they have MDW in mind at all. But it would seriously limit JBLU's flexibility to operate with an efficient fleet mix, which is one of the main selling points for operating the 190 at all. It would also expose JBLU to basically the entire LCC competitive universe in Chicago, while ORD is relatively free of such problems.
Gotta disagree. A competitive fleet mix at one airport is only feasible if you plan to do alot of connecting pax. The 190 was designed for either long or short haul O&D not as a feeder a/c, and MDW is a large O&D business traveler market. What do business travelers want? Frequency, comfort, price, and that's where the 190 excels.
 
I think Holly's been sniffin glue again with this prediction. At least we won't have to wait long to see if she's right or not. But, I think that it's a much safer bet that she's wrong this time. This just isn't SWA's style, and they have bigger fish to fry right now, than to prop up a failing competitor.
 
lowecur said:
Gotta disagree. A competitive fleet mix at one airport is only feasible if you plan to do alot of connecting pax. The 190 was designed for either long or short haul O&D not as a feeder a/c, and MDW is a large O&D business traveler market. What do business travelers want? Frequency, comfort, price, and that's where the 190 excels.
No, you're missing the point. A competitive fleet mix is one where you maximize your profit. Traffic slumps happen on a seasonal basis, and on a time of day basis. By locking yourself into an airport where only one type of plane can profitably operate, you're limiting your options to an unacceptable amount, IMHO.

The whole point of the 190 program was to a) take advantage of smaller markets where the 320 is overkill, b) increase frequency in markets at times when you can't fill a 320, and c) take advantage of seasonal trends by substituting the 190 for a 320 that can't be filled. The Chicago market meets none of these criteria. Limiting yourself in a large market by locking out the cheaper, more profitable aircraft is not a good idea. Therefore MDW would be a mistake.
 
Hey LowlyIQ

WTF over? "but it all boils down to safe and conservation flt ops mgt, right?"


You keep making statements like this and the rest of the people on here are going to figure out how little you know about airline ops.
 
N1atEcon said:
Hey LowlyIQ

WTF over? "but it all boils down to safe and conservation flt ops mgt, right?"


You keep making statements like this and the rest of the people on here are going to figure out how little you know about airline ops.
I think this clown has already made that point over and over again. It does add for some good comedy though. "Safe and conservation flt ops mgt"............right.

Hey Lowecur,

I heard there was a good message board discussing brain surgery. Why don't you jump in and pretend you know all about it.
 
IsIthardYet? said:
I think this genius has already made that point over and over again. It does add for some good comedy though. Thank you! "Safe and conservation flt ops mgt"............right. Hey sorry I don't know or understand all the terms. I never professed to be an airline mgt or pilot wannabee.........just an analcyst prognosticator.......and I'm reeeaaal good!:)

Hey Lowecur,

I heard there was a good message board discussing brain surgery. Been there done that. I'm actually a very good investor of Medical/Biotek. Made lots of moolah. But this is more entertaining. Why don't you jump in and pretend you know all about it.
......
 
Lowecur,
WFTFO! You know nothing of how aircraft operate and how a safe operation is obtained. Some Insurence guy you are. Good for your companey that you are anot a risk anal-ist. You just don't get it sometimes.
 
Blue Dude said:
No, you're missing the point. A competitive fleet mix is one where you maximize your profit. Traffic slumps happen on a seasonal basis, and on a time of day basis. By locking yourself into an airport where only one type of plane can profitably operate, you're limiting your options to an unacceptable amount, IMHO. You are talking about on a systemwide basis. This airport and city is an anomaly, and will be treated as such by B6.

The whole point of the 190 program was to a) take advantage of smaller markets where the 320 is overkill, b) increase frequency in markets at times when you can't fill a 320, and c) take advantage of seasonal trends by substituting the 190 for a 320 that can't be filled. The Chicago market meets none of these criteria. Limiting yourself in a large market by locking out the cheaper, more profitable aircraft is not a good idea. Therefore MDW would be a mistake.
Dude, let's just agree to disagree. We'll see what Jetblue has in mind for MDW in the next few weeks or months.
 
FLB717 said:
Lowecur,
WFTFO! You know nothing of how aircraft operate and how a safe operation is obtained. Some Insurence guy you are. Good for your companey that you are anot a risk anal-ist. You just don't get it sometimes.
So explain it to me genius. I'm always willing to learn.:)
 
N1atEcon said:
Hey LowlyIQ

WTF over? "but it all boils down to safe and conservation flt ops mgt, right?"


You keep making statements like this and the rest of the people on here are going to figure out how little you know about airline ops.
Now there's an understatement.:rolleyes:
 
I thought that ATA was flying 75's iternational out of MDW? Also, I know that with our 737-800 configuration we would have no problem going to either coast full. 180 pax+6 crew=186. I don't know the numbers for the 737-700 that SWA flies but, I am sure it's close to the 800.
 

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