Here's my best shot at answering your questions:
How many aircraft at the end of 2004? Currently we have 59 aircraft. By the end of 2002, that number will increase to 67-68 depending on when the L1011s are retired. To the best of my knowledge, management's plan (if they even have one) changes daily, so who knows. Also, we continue to fly at least 8 727s, although management again insists that they will all be retired by June. In 2004 the fleet will consist of 39 737-800s, 15-16 757-200s, and 12 757-300s. As for the L1011s, that's anybody's guess. Although we will probably still be flying the -500 models (we have five of those). So maybe at the end of 2004, we'll have 72 aircraft. Of course there are no guarantees on these numbers. This is all from the current info available.
How long will it take to upgrade to Captain? As an FO my answer is "TOO LONG." Currently many FOs are going into their fifth year still waiting for upgrade. In the past many have made captain in two years. There are some retirements coming up, but hopefully with the increase in aircraft, upgrades will come sooner. ATA management has no staffing plan.
What will the new contract bring, do you think you will get a substantial pay raise, better work rules, retirements? I believe that ATA pilots will get an industry standard contract. However it will not come without a fight. I wouldn't be suprised to see a strike to achieve our goals. We're in mediation now. Good work rules have been TA'ed, however company proposal on compensation and retirement stinks.
Would I resign seniority to work for ATA? I can't answer that one. You have to go with your gut feeling. You can gamble that ATA pilots will get a good contract and that the company will thrive. Or you can hope that USAirways can figure out how to become competitive and rejoin them when recalled. I guess it depends if you can afford to wait it out (i.e. do you have a good job to make it to recall).
Good luck in your career. It's funny how things change in this industry. Two years ago I had passed phase one at USAirways and was waiting for phase two when the UAL buyout plan was announced and hiring at USAirways ceased. Guess I'm lucky to at least have a job now. At least ATA has not furloughed any pilots, nor does it have any plans to.