ATA Class Dates

[BigEasy]

Any word on future class dates at ATA? I know there is a class on March 3rd, but after that I am not sure.

Just a poolie doin laps.

Different topic. There has been alot of talk of UAL CH 7. Any ideas what ATA has in store if that does happen?

 

[145drvr]

hey man

If UAL goes under It would probably help all airlines in terms of ticket prices. UAL is some what of a thorn in the side of the others because of reducing fares so low. As far as ATA specifically It would help them with the Chicago market and the ticket prices there. They have really good loads out of Midway but those prices are still low. I think American or another major would move into O'hara but that wouldn't be any direct competition with ATA as Southwest is their direct competitor out of Midway. These are just my opinions though....

 

[Jetdriver69]

ATA

IMHO, the recent hiring by ATA is an attempt to fly themselves out of debt. I have a friend who flies with them and has told me that there is a very fine line between possible profitibility and possible insolvency. Although ATA does have higher load factors these days and are continuing to accept new aircraft, they are leased up to their eyeballs and any interruption or decline in passenger demand could be financially devastating. ATA needed more pilots to fully utilize all their jets they have on hand and squeeze every $ possible out of every flight hour. Without more pilots to generate more revenue, ATA would have to eliminate costs, which would include getting rid of leased aircraft and crews. On the other hand, if war does come and ordinary travelers shy away from airlines due to the terrorist threat, ATA may hold their own due to their large military contracts offsetting the loss of revenue of paying passengers. But, nothing is going to alieve the spiking of fuel costs if we attack Iraq. It will make a bad situation even worse for the likes of AA, UAL and to a lesser extent, DAL, CON and others. If UAL does go into CH 7 due to worsening conditions, ATA would be in a position to pick up some of the crumbs. But, the industry as a whole would continue to decline until they lure the full fare business traveler back, which I don't think will ever happen. Once business travelers got used to reduced fares, they are never going to pay full fares again. Quite a quandary, **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**ed if you do, **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**ed if you don't. A Harvard economist could make a career out of this subject and to think I would never put my MBA to any good use.

jet

 

[njcapt]

Very accurate post by jetdriver69. I think I wrote on another post that the thing killing any current profits at ATA is the downward pressure on ticket prices by the slash and burn tactics being used by UAL and AA. ATA's average ticket price these days is more than $20 lower than it was the same time last year, due almost exclusively to the fire sale prices by the aforementioned big guys. ATA is only receiving a couple of aircraft this year, and with the increased utilization hopefully the revenue picture will be rosier this summer.

I don't for a minute hope that UAL goes bust, since I have a number of friends there, but a reduction of capacity in the Chicago market sure would help everybody else.

Whoops, gotta avoid thread creep. I just talked to a friend in class at ATA a couple of hours ago, and he had not heard about any classes beyond the March 3rd one. Supposedly, though, there is a new bid about to come out that will account for approximately 45 new 737 Captains, 25 new 757 Captains, and probably about 80 more new hires this year (beyond the ones already in class or in the pool).

 

[145drvr]

njcapt
How have you noticed the loads lately? ATA (Ken Wolff) was at the Deutsche Bank Global Transportation Conference and he said Jan was a really good month, just wondering how all this war waiting is affecting the loads. Also any idea what the break-even load factor is?

 

[njcapt]

Wild azz guess, but I think the break even load factor is something like 74%. As far as I've seen lately, the loads have been all over the map. But what do I know, I thought the loads I was seeing in January suckd. However, with the kind of flying the 737 does, spikes in load factor come at different times for different city pairs. I will say that I hope the loads really come up through the spring break season. ATA needs to up the load factors by about 3 - 4% to offset the lower average ticket prices these days.

One thing that should help in the near future is the additional flying we are doing from St. Pete, FL to the west coast. This flying utilizes aircraft that would normally sit overnight out in LAX, SFO, and LAS and keeps them working. The initial loads have been horrible, but with the minimal advertising that ATA is famous for, it will take a while for the TPA and PIE folks to find us. Also, every L10 we have as well as 3 757's are now dedicated to CRAF flying and that should help the bottom line, too