ASA Negotiations...

[~~~^~~~]

This time might be a little different. More flying is up for grabs, they can't offer a bid for it if they don’t know there cost.

Nah, they know the costs with reasonable certainty. An analysis was done in another post that indicated the difference in the open items in the contract is less, on a percentage basis, than I pay for my flight physicals. One or Two precent of revenue might be a number managent doesn't want to roll over on, but it is not a "deal breaker."

Currently, this is about bragging rights. The company is determined to beat ALPA and ALPA is determined to best the company. I think ALPA has the moral high ground, while the company has the upper hand because they can transfer flying to undermine our bargaining position.

We all should vote with our feet and try to get out of here (and away from anything with a Delta, United, US Air or Northwest, painted on it) when the hiring picks up next year. In the mean time, SkyWest has enough certainty about its costs to bid on flying. If they don't get more flying their costs will increase more, simply due to longevity.

The Delta RFP is going to be delayed since Delta at least has the good taste to wait a few weeks before beating up the Comair employees for meaningless concessions (which are too small to have any real effect on the Company's bottom line). I don't think Comair is going away and probably there will be growth at Comair once Delta gets its ducks in a row and can order airplanes. At a minimum Delta will use bankruptcy to dump a few 50's and there are 40 of ASA's airplanes included in Delta's bankruptcy.

I think the glory days at Republic and Mesa may be coming up on a pause.

So in other words, stand by for status quo. I see nothing moving until at least spring and probably a release next summer with a for real strike threat next fall. The eventual deal with be very close to where we are now with Pref Bidding, continued separate qualification for 50 and 70 flying, and pay rates within 5% of the numbers on the table now (and I mean either set of numbers, ALPA is only 10% higher than Mgmt, the difference is 5%) The crucial item is scope and candidly I would vote for either proposal being floated, if it included rock solid scope or one list. (Without scope, I will do everything in my power to support a strike that takes ASA and SkyWest out of the market)

When this contract is done, it will be more to stop attrition than anything else. We can't get 70 seat FO's to stay here now, obviously if their pay is cut, more will leave. Every Captain I know is either looking for another job, or already has a second job that they are growing so they can make an exit.

Oh yeah and remember how the Delta guys all promised to hire ASA pilots because we invited their furloughees over? Well, Delta will be hiring next year.

The fog is beginning to clear from the crystal ball.

 

[wms]

CT is trying to make us believe that ALPA is doing us wrong by not considering the company's pathetic proposals. In fact, ALPA is doing exactly what we want, telling the company to come to us with something reasonable or don't come to us at all. After the "informal" meetings the pilots made it clear that we did not want ALPA to meet with the company without a mediator, and ALPA has stuck to that. If the company says it's ALPA's fault that there has not been movement lately, they're wrong, it's the pilot's! The pilots of ASA don't want ALPA to move in a direction that doesn't produce favorable results, without a mediator present. The pilots have set the priorities, and ALPA is acting based on them.

The next time ALPA goes before a mediator I hope they make it clear the pilots of ASA expect a strike, and the sooner the better.

I thought SH and CT would have the spine to do the right thing and be advocates for the employees. I'm very disappointed that they also have sold out.

 

[crjskipper]

The ship is sinking and the rats have already jumped. The first 700s will be transfered in the next month, the last 900s will be going to SW. The ATRs are leaving next year and most likely wont be replaced. We will be 30 airplanes smaller by the end of 2007.

Good news - we wont have to furlough because everyone will be quitting first.

Why deal with union issues when you can just shift the issue to your non-union group.

Jump boys, jump!

 

[USCtrojan]

Nah, they know the costs with reasonable certainty. An analysis was done in another post that indicated the difference in the open items in the contract is less, on a percentage basis, than I pay for my flight physicals. One or Two precent of revenue might be a number managent doesn't want to roll over on, but it is not a "deal breaker."

Currently, this is about bragging rights. The company is determined to beat ALPA and ALPA is determined to best the company. I think ALPA has the moral high ground, while the company has the upper hand because they can transfer flying to undermine our bargaining position.

We all should vote with our feet and try to get out of here (and away from anything with a Delta, United, US Air or Northwest, painted on it) when the hiring picks up next year. In the mean time, SkyWest has enough certainty about its costs to bid on flying. If they don't get more flying their costs will increase more, simply due to longevity.

The Delta RFP is going to be delayed since Delta at least has the good taste to wait a few weeks before beating up the Comair employees for meaningless concessions (which are too small to have any real effect on the Company's bottom line). I don't think Comair is going away and probably there will be growth at Comair once Delta gets its ducks in a row and can order airplanes. At a minimum Delta will use bankruptcy to dump a few 50's and there are 40 of ASA's airplanes included in Delta's bankruptcy.

I think the glory days at Republic and Mesa may be coming up on a pause.

So in other words, stand by for status quo. I see nothing moving until at least spring and probably a release next summer with a for real strike threat next fall. The eventual deal with be very close to where we are now with Pref Bidding, continued separate qualification for 50 and 70 flying, and pay rates within 5% of the numbers on the table now (and I mean either set of numbers, ALPA is only 10% higher than Mgmt, the difference is 5%) The crucial item is scope and candidly I would vote for either proposal being floated, if it included rock solid scope or one list. (Without scope, I will do everything in my power to support a strike that takes ASA and SkyWest out of the market)

When this contract is done, it will be more to stop attrition than anything else. We can't get 70 seat FO's to stay here now, obviously if their pay is cut, more will leave. Every Captain I know is either looking for another job, or already has a second job that they are growing so they can make an exit.

Oh yeah and remember how the Delta guys all promised to hire ASA pilots because we invited their furloughees over? Well, Delta will be hiring next year.

The fog is beginning to clear from the crystal ball.

Ditto, Fins, great post as always. Thank you for your insight!

Trojan