ASA In Five Years? Or Even 2.5 Years?

[Cpt Oveur]

When ATL gets cut even more by MEM and DTW 200 base openings, and XJT loses 27 planes in APR, things will get pretty interesting around here

No doubt things are getting interesting. Clearly, any domicile opening will come at the expense of reducing current base staffing levels, and none of that should come as a surprise or a with fear...

 

[Thebadcat1313]

Southwest entering the Atlanta market is driving the shuffle. Delta wants its ducks in a row so they can compete aggresively head to head with WN.

 

[JustaNumber]

Makes me very happy that I did not participate in that video they were making in the lounge a few weeks ago for recruiting. On second thought, I'd like to do it now, but with my script, not theirs.

I honestly think we will continue to shrink. But, I also think other regionals will shrink too. Not enough pilots out there. I think there is supply for a year. Then there will be a network-redefining shortage for a couple of years. After that, the word will be out and the market will begin correcting. My deep down hope is that the regional industry disappears. Our inability to hire will force resources (pilots) into larger aircraft with less frequency. So long as mainline holds the line on scope and we continue to increase costs, it makes better business case to stop farming out the lift and operate the big, newest gen RJ's at mainline.

While I agree that all the regionals will be shrinking, there is no way that mainline will ever beat regional costs. It is a fantasy to believe that you're going to have much better pay and benefits at a major, and yet be cheaper than some start-up minimum-wage-paying regional.

For a little while I thought Delta had learned its lesson with low quality (Mesa), but it appears the race to the bottom has resumed. As long as the industry has two tiers of pilot pay, some pilots will be willing to work for nothing at the bottom tier, in hopes of making it quickly to the top tier. And you can't compete against someone who doesn't care how little he makes.

 

[777forever]

While I agree that all the regionals will be shrinking, there is no way that mainline will ever beat regional costs. It is a fantasy to believe that you're going to have much better pay and benefits at a major, and yet be cheaper than some start-up minimum-wage-paying regional.

For a little while I thought Delta had learned its lesson with low quality (Mesa), but it appears the race to the bottom has resumed. As long as the industry has two tiers of pilot pay, some pilots will be willing to work for nothing at the bottom tier, in hopes of making it quickly to the top tier. And you can't compete against someone who doesn't care how little he makes.

Dont get it twisted, low quality was not the reason Delta got rid of Mesa. They used it as an excuse to get rid of Mesa's 50 seaters. Had Mesa had only the 900s and no 145s they would still be in DCI today.

 

[JustaNumber]

As long as the industry has two tiers of pilot pay, some pilots will be willing to work for nothing at the bottom tier, in hopes of making it quickly to the top tier. And you can't compete against someone who doesn't care how little he makes.

Just to prove my point, from another thread...

You have a lot to learn. I now work with pilots from all walks of life. ASA,Skywest,TSA,Pinnacle,Colgan,Mesa,US Air,Mesaba,Horizon,ATA,Aloha,Indy,Midwest,UAL furloughs among others. They, couldn't care less where I came from. Yes, I was at that horrible place (GoJet). I got my 1,000 PIC & MOVED ON to a much better place. But, hey keep up the whining, complaining and your own little jumpseat war. Let us know how that works out for you mmmmmk. For the record, G7 was a horrible place. It was no different than Trans States as far as managment, maintenance, schedules etc. I do not regret going to G7, getting my time and moving on. Good luck. With your attitude you're going to need it.

How do you compete with that? Thanks for creating the B-scale wage, ALPA.

And for those who just say, "get your time and move on as well," do the math. Any new growth is coming to the absolute cheapest regional, not the majors. Unfortunately, most regional guys will never make it to the top of this ponzi scheme.

 

[Nevets]

When ATL gets cut even more by MEM and DTW 200 base openings, and XJT loses 27 planes in APR, things will get pretty interesting around here

Especially because ASA will still be on the hook for those 27 aircraft.

 

[79%N1]

What's basically happening here is companies are being forced to operate at a loss, or no profit margin. This is not sustainable, but neither is losing your business to those that can bid cheaper. Now that it is established that GoJets can/will fly CRJ700's at a cheaper rate than ASA or Skywest, there is certainly no hope that GoJets won't win the next round of bids. This is to be expected in the era of bidding for flying. Our union cannot protect us from this. I expect Mesa to get back into the bidding and add more competition. Management at Skywest inc. MUST find a drastic way to reduce overall costs to continue to keep business. Either that, or they must continue to buy other carriers to rid the competiton. Either way, things will be very interesting as contracts expire and the flying goes to GoJets in the future.

 

[777forever]

What's basically happening here is companies are being forced to operate at a loss, or no profit margin. This is not sustainable, but neither is losing your business to those that can bid cheaper. Now that it is established that GoJets can/will fly CRJ700's at a cheaper rate than ASA or Skywest, there is certainly no hope that GoJets won't win the next round of bids. This is to be expected in the era of bidding for flying. Our union cannot protect us from this. I expect Mesa to get back into the bidding and add more competition. Management at Skywest inc. MUST find a drastic way to reduce overall costs to continue to keep business. Either that, or they must continue to buy other carriers to rid the competiton. Either way, things will be very interesting as contracts expire and the flying goes to GoJets in the future.

Well said. We all thought PNCL was the main competition. But Hulas owns TSA, GoJet, and Compass. All have young pilot groups and are ripe to expand. Maybe Hulas knows something and that is why they ordered all those MRJs.

 

[OCP]

This is all in the hands of MGT. They "tried" to save money by under staffing the crap out of us which made our performance horrible! You can be expensive with a good product and still get a contract, but you can't be expensive AND have crappy performance and expect to keep airplanes. It's not like Delta hasn't shown this in the past.

 

[Freebrd]

I say put SH on line, what the he'll does he contribute anyway that CT can't do, what about Vac Low, those Sr lifers abusing the he'll outa it

 

[Nevets]

Management at Skywest inc. MUST find a drastic way to reduce overall costs to continue to keep business. Either that, or they must continue to buy other carriers to rid the competiton.

It's too bad their anti-union stance gets in the way of a solution they can pull the trigger on right now.

But I guess they figure it's easier, in contract negotiations, to get rid of vacation low, the defined contribution plan, the higher 401k matching, the higher vacation and sick accrual, and slowly squeeze us on health benefits because certain pilots will fall for the, "contract improvements to a contract that is already one of the most expensive won't help" mantra.

Of course management didn't want to lose the 700s. But don't think for one nanosecond that they won't use this to beat over the head our of the JNC from now on to mediation.

 

[79%N1]

It's too bad their anti-union stance gets in the way of a solution they can pull the trigger on right now.

But I guess they figure it's easier, in contract negotiations, to get rid of vacation low, the defined contribution plan, the higher 401k matching, the higher vacation and sick accrual, and slowly squeeze us on health benefits because certain pilots will fall for the, "contract improvements to a contract that is already one of the most expensive won't help" mantra.

Of course management didn't want to lose the 700s. But don't think for one nanosecond that they won't use this to beat over the head our of the JNC from now on to mediation.

Which pilot group is that??? Oh, you must mean the one that has already fallen for that and taken concessions......

 

[dojetdriver]

It's too bad their anti-union stance gets in the way of a solution they can pull the trigger on right now.

But I guess they figure it's easier, in contract negotiations, to get rid of vacation low, the defined contribution plan, the higher 401k matching, the higher vacation and sick accrual, and slowly squeeze us on health benefits because certain pilots will fall for the, "contract improvements to a contract that is already one of the most expensive won't help" mantra.

Of course management didn't want to lose the 700s. But don't think for one nanosecond that they won't use this to beat over the head our of the JNC from now on to mediation.

You mean the "80 million dollars saved in synergies" crap?

Which pilot group is that??? Oh, you must mean the one that has already fallen for that and taken concessions......

Bear in mind, NOT all pilots voted for/wanted to take the concession that management AND the MEC said was necessary to get "XJT back to profitability"

 

[Nevets]

Which pilot group is that??? Oh, you must mean the one that has already fallen for that and taken concessions......

I'm talking about from managements point of view. And I was using a quote from your Mr Merchant that describes the sentiment of others among the ranks. Not saying it's going to happen!

 

[nerjdriver]

No doubt things are getting interesting. Clearly, any domicile opening will come at the expense of reducing current base staffing levels, and none of that should come as a surprise or a with fear...

What 27 AC? They are up for extension, not terminated. Check your facts bucko. Im guessing you had all the facts when you voted yes for PBS too.

 

[79%N1]

So.....if they are not extended, then are they not in essence terminated? Why then did BH state we would 'have to work hard to keep them?'

 

[flyboyzii]

Just to prove my point, from another thread...



How do you compete with that? Thanks for creating the B-scale wage, ALPA.

And for those who just say, "get your time and move on as well," do the math. Any new growth is coming to the absolute cheapest regional, not the majors. Unfortunately, most regional guys will never make it to the top of this ponzi scheme.

You're not supposed to compete with that. You should get your PIC time then compete for the next tier in your career. I.E. the next level whether that be LCC or Major. I understand that not everyone will move on from a regional. That is their decision. If they want to make a regional carrier, they can have it. I did not want the regional level to be the pinnacle in my carrer. I wanted more. So, I went to a regional (GoJet) and obtained my PIC time then aggressively threw my applications everywhere, talked to as many people as I could and moved on. I'm not sorry for my decisions. It paid off.

 

[cbrown1]

So.....if they are not extended, then are they not in essence terminated? Why then did BH state we would 'have to work hard to keep them?'

Isn't tsa supposed to get atrs or colgan or skywest?
Think those are to replace these?

 

[777forever]

I heard a rumor of 100 furloughs coming for ASA

 

[cbrown1]

Rumors are like a holes, everyone has them and they all stink.