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Arpey learning from WN

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lowecur

Well-known member
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From tomorrow's Dallas paper. Sounds like WN is his buddy, and B6 is the enemy. I think Arpey would like nothing better than to make Neeleman squirm a little in the next few years. Interesting times are coming.

February 6, 2004

American's CEO Says Airline Is Learning from Southwest

By Eric Torbenson, The Dallas Morning News

Feb. 6--NEW YORK -- American Airlines Inc.'s chief executive, Gerard Arpey, praised rival Southwest Airlines Co. Thursday, saying his company's new thinking emulates what Southwest has done for years.

"One of the reasons Southwest is so successful and has such high customer service ratings is that they promise a product that is very simple and deliver on that promise very consistently," Mr. Arpey said. "It's a better paradigm ... and that's where we need to move."

Mr. Arpey's comments to analysts at a Wall Street conference represent another significant change in the corporate mindset of the world's largest airline.

Southwest has been profitable for three decades by using one plane type and offering a no-frills point-to-point schedule.

American's system has been far more complex. Just a few years ago, American flew 14 types of planes with 35 configurations, Mr. Arpey said, as part of a strategy to put the right planes in the right markets to bring in the most revenue.

But complexity came at a high cost. As business travelers have grown more cost conscious, discount carriers such as Dallas-based Southwest have gained momentum. In response, American has been simplifying its operations since 2002 by cutting the number of types of aircraft it flies, streamlining its schedule and scrutinizing its processes to squeeze savings.

By September, American will have just 5 types of aircraft, Mr. Arpey said. The carrier would move faster to simplify its fleet if the task weren't so expensive, he said.

"The more complex your operation is, the more chances you have in disappointing your customers," Mr. Arpey said at the morning conference, sponsored by Goldman Sachs.

The Fort Worth-based carrier continues to rethink how it sells itself to customers, Mr. Arpey said, but wants to be sure it has services to offer that fliers will pay more for. American has no plans to drop its first class cabin, for example, because its best customers value the extra legroom and other services, he said.

American will use its frequent flier program to drive more revenue, but Mr. Arpey said he thinks the program's mileage bonuses and incentives are a bit "too liberal." He said he hopes that a strengthening economy and airline industry will let the airline "tighten them up a bit."

The good news is that American's financial recovery continues to take shape. American hopes its costs per seat mile flown, a standard unit of measure for airlines, will be 17 percent lower in the current quarter than in the first three months of 2003, Mr. Arpey said.

"We must keep pedaling as hard as we can," he said.

Some factors are making American's recovery more of an uphill ride. Health care costs for current and retired American employees run as much as $350 million annually. Competitors and newly created airlines such as JetBlue Airways Corp. have little or no expense for retirees, Mr. Arpey said.

Stubbornly high fuel prices will continue to eat into American's bottom line. The carrier has used financial markets to hedge some of its fuel needs for the current quarter, but it has significantly less fuel pre-purchased at lower prices for the rest of the year.

Still, analysts have generally cheered American's overall job of reducing expenses, which are now lower than at Houston-based Continental Airlines Inc.

With leaner costs, American can now flex its muscle against both its traditional foes and the surging low-cost carriers.

"If we face carriers such as JetBlue that come into our markets, we can defend them with all the tools available to us," Mr. Arpey said.

But analysts are concerned that when American and JetBlue compete on a particular route, JetBlue is winning customers in part because it has satellite television in each of its seats. JetBlue offers no first class service or meals.

American has studied adding such systems to its fleet of more than 700 planes, Mr. Arpey said. But for now, it's focused on adding power ports on its planes to let travelers use their computers for work or for watching movies.

"You really have to ask yourself how much we are going to spend on that kind of technology on the airplane when people are bringing it on themselves," he said.
 
Funny how Arpey doesn't mention the highly motivated and productive employees of Southwest and how their high morale has contributed to Luv's image and success of making customers happy. If he hasn't learned that too, he's an idiot.
 
Arpey used the word "paradigm." Invoking the word "paradigm" is a sure and inievitable sign that business school bull$hit is about to issue forth.
 
lowecur said:


"The more complex your operation is, the more chances you have in disappointing your customers," Mr. Arpey said at the morning conference, sponsored by Goldman Sachs.

"We must keep pedaling as hard as we can," he said.

Health care costs for current and retired American employees run as much as $350 million annually. Competitors and newly created airlines such as JetBlue Airways Corp. have little or no expense for retirees, Mr. Arpey said.

"If we face carriers such as JetBlue that come into our markets, we can defend them with all the tools available to us," Mr. Arpey said.



Did Arpey just call his employee's "tools"? I would call him "Master of the Obvious"
 
ticket promotion a success

In reading this article, I can't get the feeling the free trip deal has been a great success. They essentially have cannibalized 137,000 of their existing paying customers in this promotion. 1st Q may not reflect the cost here, as many of these free r/t tickets may not be used for up to a year. Jetblue does acknowledge taking a hit, but says they have received tremendous demand since lowering their fares. The problem is this will have a damaging affect on RASM this Q.

American Airlines Calls Round-Trip Deal a Success

By Trebor Banstetter, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas

Feb. 6--A free-ticket promotion aimed at rival JetBlue Airways has proven wildly popular with travelers in Boston and New York, American Airlines officials said Thursday, adding that they continue to intensify efforts to ward off low-fare competitors.

More than 150,000 passengers have signed up for a program that awards a free round-trip ticket anywhere in the world to travelers who take two nonstop flights -- at any price -- from Boston or New York to California or Florida.

Nearly 13,000 of those passengers were new to American's frequent flier program, airline officials said.

The free-ticket promotion was launched the day JetBlue began service in Boston and was also aimed at that airline's hub at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York.

American won't disclose the final price tag of the promotion. It could be substantial, given the number of tickets the carrier will give away.

If participation continues at the present rate, American could give away more than 350,000 tickets by the promotion's April 15 deadline, many to far-flung destinations.

Arpey wouldn't say whether American would extend the free-ticket program beyond April 15.

American has also increased domestic service at JetBlue's JFK hub, announcing Thursday the addition of two daily nonstop flights to Phoenix with introductory fares of $180 for a round-trip ticket.

"We certainly did see some hit," acknowledged JetBlue spokesman Todd Burke, who recently joined the airline after leaving American. "Obviously we don't have the network they do."

Burke said that JetBlue responded by slashing its own fares to California and Florida, and "as a result, we're seeing tremendous demand on those routes."


He said he has made a greater effort to communicate with employees and involve them in American's strategic planning.
 
Here's another related article excerpt from the San Diego Union-Tribune:


Speaking at a Goldman, Sachs & Co. conference in New York, Gerard Arpey, American's chief executive, said he is no fan of giving away mileage, but he adds that in the current environment – especially with a proliferation of discount airlines – American has no choice.

"I'm constantly challenging the folks in our (frequent flier) Advantage program as to why we have to do things like give away double mileage," he said. "But they say we have no choice because of what our competitors are doing."

The current promotional program, for instance, was inaugurated on the same day that JetBlue, a discounter based at New York's John F. Kennedy Airport, began its service at Boston's Logan airport.

Arpey said that the industry as a whole is reviving from the disastrous dip in air travel following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. He added that as business revives, he would eventually like to limit the airline's promotional programs.

"As supply and demand comes more into balance in this industry, airlines should be able to evolve programs in a way that they are less generous than they have been before," he said.

"As demand for pure seats rises, the desire or efficacy of giving away miles should be reduced and we should be able to get some pricing power. That doesn't exist today."

Arpey said it could take months or years for the situation to change.

Arpey did not estimate the price tag of the current promotion. It could be substantial, given the number of free tickets the carrier will give away.

If people continue signing up at the present rate, it means American ultimately could give away more than 350,000 free tickets by the promotion's deadline, many of them to far-flung destinations.


Those 350,000 potential free R/T ticket redemptions will have to be absorbed within a 12-month period. Add to this all the other FF redemptions and AA could have its hands full. If they screw it up they could find themselves with a passenger revolt, or having to open more revenue seats in many of their highest yielding markets.
 
"One of the reasons Southwest is so successful and has such high customer service ratings is that they promise a product that is very simple and deliver on that promise very consistently," Mr. Arpey said.

Sounds like a 'production line', machine-like explanation for Southwests simple 'human needs' methods.

It should read "One of the main reasons Southwest is so successful is that they give a tinkers d*mn about their folks. They rent out old aircraft carriers and have parties on their decks. They send flowers and get well cards to employees who are hospitalized...not requests to other employees that they 'donate sick time'. They let their people 'breathe' and do not mislead them. They show them that the fruits of their efforts are directed at them, not primarily towards stockholders"
 
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350,000 tickets is a big number. But let's try to keep it in perspective.

JetBlue moved 2.37 million pax last quater. How many pax do you think AA moves in a year? With load factors in the 80% range. That still leaves 20% of the available seats to place these folks on. Plenty of room left. Personally I hate the idea because non reving on AA is like trying to get in the JFK-SLC-JFK B6 flight.

In exchange AA got out the word that they have low fares. Just look at their advertising. "I paid $99 on AA". They also stole 137,000 customer. Folks who may not have choosen AA now are AA frequent flyers. That's 5% of the folks that JetBlue moved last quarter. Did it hurt JetBlue? You be the judge but if a 50% decline in stock price is any indication, humm.

"Nothing personal, it's strictly business" I believe that's the quote form the God Father

AA is fighting back but lets be realistic. The pax they grabbed were not all JetBlues. AA goal hear is to NOT lose market share. It's obvious that JetBlue continues to grow. Just not at AA expense. So AA purpose is to not lose. Let JetBlue steal someone elses pax.

Jungle rules apply.
 
G4

G4G5 said:
They also stole 137,000 customer. Folks who may not have choosen AA now are AA frequent flyers. That's 5% of the folks that JetBlue moved last quarter. Did it hurt JetBlue? You be the judge but if a 50% decline in stock price is any indication, humm.
Those 137,000 were already FF for AA. The 13,000 is more indicative of new business. Also, 0 revenue will drive down RASM on the high yield International network in the next 12 months.

Their stock was too high anyway, and I believe it will go down quite a bit more in this environment. Of course, once the 190's start running, Katie bar the door. :D :D
 
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I agree its a jungle out there.

Your point about maintaining perspective in seat availability was not not lost with me when I made my post. My comment to you is that not all of AA's seats are created equal. Or should I say valued equally in the eyes of FFs. You can bet your sweet bippy that there will very few of those 2 for 1 redemptions used for flights between DFW and ORD, and most of AA's other domestic city pairs. These passengers will be originating out of LA, SF, BOS, NYC, and MIA. All major gateways to AA's prime international markets. In addition, the 2 for 1 deal is good for up to 2 free R/Ts so that 350,000 number could be substantially higher.

My point here is that AA will have its hands full managing this program on the back end, and if not done properly could wind up being expensive in more ways than one. Arpey understands this and that is why he reluctant to go to the FF well to solve his problems too often. Let's hope for AA's sake that the pursuit to maintain/grow market share does not become prohibitively expensive from a business standpoint.

Finally, the competitive struggle between AA, JBLU, and whoever else must also be analyzed by who can maintain a sustained competitive advantage. It's one thing to stoke the coals and generate a short-term burst of energy to pass up your competitors, but in the end the victory goes to the one who can produce superior results consistently over time. I am always reminded by this fact when people discuss the success of jetBlue.

You know it goes something like this..."Well jetblue is still enjoying its honeymoon stage; I'll begin to be impressed with jetBlue if they can keep it up over the next 10 years."

Well I'm here to say it works both ways and AA won't solve its competitive issues with LCCs like jetBlue with 2 for 1 deals solely. They are moving in the right direction but at present it still isn't enough. AA may never be able to get its costs low enough and may be forced to move forward as smaller airline which isn't everything to everyone in terms of its breath of service and markets. Instead of thrashing away at LCCs in a vain attempt to restore something that can't be recovered, good business (And AA shareholders) may dictate that AA must permanently change how it does business going forward.
 
My mistake, I ment to use the 150,000 number.

My point was that's 150,000 folks who choose AA. Would they have gone to an LCC competitor? Would they have flown at AA? How many will actually redeem their flights? Are more folks now aware of AA low costs? 13,000 additional FF's is a tremendous number. Let's keep in mind that the Citibank credit card purchases geneate revenue for AA. That's 13,000 folks last quate alone that are now AA customers and not somone elses.

While you may have to give away 150,000-350,000 tickets. Will those same 350,000 folks choose AA the next time they need to purchase a ticket? Would those seats have gone empty anyway?AMR mgt must feel that they can support it but can United and Delta? What is it doing to USAir? The last time I checked LUV was still giving away their promotional tickets.

What was the marketing value of the advertising? Just tossing an ad in the USA Today telling folks you have low fares does not cut it. How does a Legacy carrier tell folks that they can compete on a price per ticket basis with an LCC? My guess is that their ROI will be a whole lot better then starting an LCC and they get to do it without dilution of the brand name. Let's also try to keep in mind that the redemption rate is now where near 100%. They are fully aware of the exact percentages that they can expect to actually take part in this promotion.

AMR mgt is looking at the big picture.

The jury is still out on weather this will hurt or help AA. I for one don't see it doing as much damage as good.
 
G4G5 when it comes to making judgments and predictions about AA & JLBU we both could be accused of being less than totally objective in our stated positions.:D
 
SpeedBird said:
G4G5 when it comes to making judgments and predictions about AA & JLBU we both could be accused of being less than totally objective in our stated positions.:D

I hear ya, but that's why we keep reading each others posts.

Take care and enjoy.
 

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