Lear70
JAFFO
- Joined
- Oct 17, 2003
- Posts
- 7,487
You're right about the MKE growth but, then again, MKE can't handle 50 or 60 737's and there might not be a cost-savings reason to put them up there.
Fences:
If they fence all the Midwest pilots into their existing seats for 5 years, then only AAI pilots would be elligible to upgrade.
Similarly, if they fence the Midwest pilots just to equipment only for 5 years, all the 737 upgrades would go to existing AAI pilots. HOWEVER, as AirTran 717 CA's left for the 737, it would open up 717 CA slots and theoretically the Midwest pilots would continue to have some upgrade flow, probably much greater than they already have which is attrition only (this is with some type of 1:4 or 1:5 seniority integration with this kind of seat lock, not DOH which wouldn't be fair any way you cut it).
This option might be the "most" fair, but I doubt the MEH MEC would agree to it, simply because it allows AAI pilots to upgrade at a much higher rate (which is the whole POINT, protecting what we had pre-acquisition without actually harming the MEH pilots' expected career path).
All that said, no one knows what the unions would work out or even if they COULD work anything out without it going to arbitration. The following is pure speculation, I don't have a crystal ball.
At the rate we're going, we might not see an acquisition actually happen until mid-summer, then the vote for NPA/ALPA (which will probably be NPA, simply because the Midwest ALPA CA pay rates are quite a bit lower than AirTran and we're almost 3 years into contract negotiations for higher rates), not to mention I don't know of a precedent that allows for a switch to another bargaining unit while retaining your original contract and all the work that's gone into negotiations...?
That would take us through the fall and, if the two groups can't come to an agreement on seniority integration and if UAir/AWA are any indication, it will take another year or two (or longer) to go to arbitration and come up with a final seniority award.
In the meantime, growth would continue at AirTran, and upgrades would go to existing AAI pilots. There would be no incentive to place the airplanes at Midwest because their senior pilots, being a lot higher on the longevity scale, cost a LOT more than a 3-year F/O upgrading, even on their existing contract, and it's all about the money.
Only time will tell... but the first part is the way fences can protect upgrades.
Fences:
If they fence all the Midwest pilots into their existing seats for 5 years, then only AAI pilots would be elligible to upgrade.
Similarly, if they fence the Midwest pilots just to equipment only for 5 years, all the 737 upgrades would go to existing AAI pilots. HOWEVER, as AirTran 717 CA's left for the 737, it would open up 717 CA slots and theoretically the Midwest pilots would continue to have some upgrade flow, probably much greater than they already have which is attrition only (this is with some type of 1:4 or 1:5 seniority integration with this kind of seat lock, not DOH which wouldn't be fair any way you cut it).
This option might be the "most" fair, but I doubt the MEH MEC would agree to it, simply because it allows AAI pilots to upgrade at a much higher rate (which is the whole POINT, protecting what we had pre-acquisition without actually harming the MEH pilots' expected career path).
All that said, no one knows what the unions would work out or even if they COULD work anything out without it going to arbitration. The following is pure speculation, I don't have a crystal ball.
At the rate we're going, we might not see an acquisition actually happen until mid-summer, then the vote for NPA/ALPA (which will probably be NPA, simply because the Midwest ALPA CA pay rates are quite a bit lower than AirTran and we're almost 3 years into contract negotiations for higher rates), not to mention I don't know of a precedent that allows for a switch to another bargaining unit while retaining your original contract and all the work that's gone into negotiations...?
That would take us through the fall and, if the two groups can't come to an agreement on seniority integration and if UAir/AWA are any indication, it will take another year or two (or longer) to go to arbitration and come up with a final seniority award.
In the meantime, growth would continue at AirTran, and upgrades would go to existing AAI pilots. There would be no incentive to place the airplanes at Midwest because their senior pilots, being a lot higher on the longevity scale, cost a LOT more than a 3-year F/O upgrading, even on their existing contract, and it's all about the money.
Only time will tell... but the first part is the way fences can protect upgrades.
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