EngineOut: "Just like the good times never last, the bad times won't either. It seems rather difficult to believe, since they industry has been in such steep decline since 2000."
"Airlines' current leverage against pilots is not all that different than the "dot-com" bubble or the so called housing bubble in that it's bound to burst. They are sticking it to us while they can. Sticking while the sticking is good, if you will. When the P and L turns to black for them and their competition, they'll have the favor returned as our bubble starts to build. "
Unfortunately, the industry is not just in a low part of its normal cycle. The entire industry is fundamentally changing, primarily due to both the advent of the code share, and our own improved safety record.
Unions once upon a time had figured out how to guard all their flying through scope. If management wanted the job done cheaper, they either negotiated with their own pilots, or they had to start a brand new airline from scratch. In an age when airplanes routinely fell out of the sky with extremely costly consequences, it was in management's best financial interest to attract and retain the most experienced pilots possible. So they negotiated the best rates they could to attract and keep the best pilots possible.
Majors piloting jobs became very desireable, and the industry paywise became very lopsided as pilots were willing to work for peanuts at entry level timebuilding jobs, with the promise of big riches down the road. A perfect pyramid scheme was building.
Fast forward to today's environment. The majors have figured out that they could incrementally increase outsourcing through the use of the code share. They started farming out as much flying as possible to pilots willing to work for peanuts, right under ALPA's nose. Unfortunately, the DRASTICALLY improved safety record of the past two decades means that they no longer have to court the best of the best anymore...modern automated cockpits mean that just about anyone with a couple years experience can keep an airplane out of a smoking hole in the ground. So there's no longer any incentive on management's part to keep increasing pay.
On the pilot's side of the equation, pilots still keep signing up to fly for peanuts, because they believe it's just a normal market cycle dip, and the pot of gold will eventually be waiting for them once they have their 1000 121 pic, and the industry picks up again. The problem is, that pot of gold is getting smaller and smaller, and fewer and fewer pilots are able to reach it!
Basically, it's capitalism at work. The market always finds a way to reach an equilibrium, and we see that at work here. Much as we pilots want that major airline pay to stay up in the stratosphere, major airline pilots have routinely made the list of overpaid professions when considering normal suppy and demand forces, and the market is finally balancing itself. The problem is, new pilots at the regional level and below should be starting to see higher compensation levels but aren't, precisely because of the above mentality.
Many pilots still believe things will return to the way they were, and are willing to "just take a lowball job offer at MESA or whereever, for the quick upgrade and on to that major job, or ...just take a paycut to get the new planes on the property so I can get my quick upgrade, etc." But there is no major job to go to anymore. There may be some form of major job in the future, but it won't look anything like it used to. It will only be marginally better than top regional positions. So we all need to get used to the new market, and be ready to stand up and say, "my time and knowledge and skills are worth a minimum of $xxx, and I won't work for any less." I think once this mentality starts changing, regional compensation will finally reach some sort of equilibrium at a living wage.
