Singlecoil
I don't reMember
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2002
- Posts
- 1,273
One of our pilots posted this on our webboard. I asked him if he wouldn't mind having posted on here to stimulate some discussion and he said he didn't.
I have developed a software tool that is designed to help pilots model the different retirement options available in the 2009 TA. It will prompt you for information, like your birthdate and date of hire, expected B plan return rate, etc., and then show you what your A plan and B plans will be worth at the date of retirement you choose. You can run the analysis using each of the options available under the TA, print them out and compare them. You can do the same for different rates of return and different retirement dates. It is loaded with all of the pay raises for each step as laid out in the TA, as well as past pay scales, to build a proper 120 month window and then it finds the best 60 months prior to either your retirement date, age 60, or if you select option 3 it also looks at 120 months prior to 1/1/2010.
A new feature in the version is the ability to also factor in future pay raises. You can specify a date in the future and a percentage that you think pay will increase (you can also do a pay cut, but let's not go there). The logic behind the pay raise feature is that it looks at the ratio between CA pay and FO pay for each step as of 4/1/2012. It then will increase CA pay by the percentage you specify and then set FO pay according to the ratio that was present in 2012 for each step. So if you selected a 2% raise, and it came out to be $3.60 per hour for a captain, it would increase CA pay by $3.60 per hour every year after that. FO pay would be set by multiplying CA pay by the ratio that was present in 2012.
The program employs the IRS limits for 401K contributions as well as limits on pension benefits. If you select the option to include a pay raise, it will ask you if you want to ignore those limits or include them. It is hard to predict what those limits will be in 20 years so it gives you the option of bypassing those to get a glimpse of what future benefits will look like after many years of incremental pay raises.
Early and late retirement benefits are also actuarially corrected according to your age at your expected retirement date.
The company has not released the 2009 actuarial factors for early/late retirement, max benefits, and lump sums. I have contacted them and received no response. I have incorporated estimated factors for 2009. These 2009 factors are then used for dates past 2009. Lump sums shown in later years will not be accurate but the single life annuity will be. The ESTIMATED 2009 actuarial factors used in this program are based on ALPA's understanding of how Alaska Airlines and their actuary are calculating these factors. You should not rely on these factors in making any decision regarding your retirement. In order to obtain accurate retirement benefit and lump sum information, you should request a benefit estimate from the Company. I have tried to make all of this as accurate as possible, but I want to be perfectly clear that this is not to be used to predict your actual retirement benefits. Contact the company if you want an estimate of your retirement benefits.
Some common questions may be:
How does it know what my best 60 months will be for the A plan?
It asks you what seat position you held on certain dates and when you plan on getting off reserve or upgrading, to build a database with months of pay based on your seat position and how many hours of pay you specify. For Option 1 and 2, it looks at two different 120 month windows; 120 months prior to retirement and 120 months prior to age 60 if applicable. It will use whichever period has the higher benefits based on final average earnings and the years of service at that point. For many people retiring after 60, the highest benefits are often achieved by taking the snapshot at age 60 and then actuarily increasing that benefit for the later retirement date. For option 3, it also looks at the 120 months prior to 1/1/2010 as laid out in the TA.
What is with all the clicking? Can't you just show all 3 options on one screen? Sheesh!
Well, the different data entry pages are in the order they are for a reason. There is a lot going on behind the scenes between each page and the entries need to be made in the proper order. For example, if you select option 3, the page that says "Enter the seat position you held on..." may have the date you turned 50, the date 10 years prior to retirement, the date 1/1/2010, or it might say "Enter your current position" if none of those apply. The best option is to print out different analyses and compare them side-by-side.
How does it decide my 401K contribution percentage?
If you leave that field blank it will adjust the percentage you contribute to make sure you maximize the company's contribution and don't exceed any limits. If you look at the monthly contributions you may notice your contribution falls off in December, that is because you are maxing out for the year. If you choose to model a pay raise and ignore those limits, this automatic feature will not work. You will need to manually enter a value and make sure it is reasonable. If you say you want to contribute some high number like 40% of your pay, it will let you do that with the limits turned off. This won't be a very accurate way to model your B plan, however. Keep it under 10 percent or so or keep a close eye on how much it is contributing if you have the limits turned off. You can view the monthly contribution page with annual subtotals by selecting it on the subtotal menu. Then click through the pages on the left side of the screen.
Where are the numbers this program is using?
On the page that you are viewing your benefit forecast click the view menu and select view factors used in this forecast. For option 2, you will notice that the retirement multiplier is not probably not .019. That is because what is shown is the average of .019 prior to 1/1/2010, and .01 thereafter. Actuarial adjustments are pro-rated. So if you are going to be 60.75 on the retirement date you specify, it will interpolate between the age 60 and age 61 factors to determine your benefits. You may notice pay scales appear to be annual figures, but they are not. Those are the hourly numbers without the decimal; the decimal is factored in during the calculations. There are 12 pages on this view, one for each step. If you selected to model pay raises, it shows you the rates of pay in the future through 2038. You can tell it to increase pay as of 4/1/2015, for example, and it will keep 2012 rates in place between 2012 and 4/1/2015, then create annual raises thereafter.
This program has not been evaluated or endorsed by Alaska Airlines, the ALA MEC, the ALPA retirement committee, or anyone else for that matter. Use at your own risk.
I am offering this software free of charge to whomever wants it. It will work during the voting period of the TA then it will cease to function. I own the right to distribute unlimited copies and anyone who is interested in the program is free to have a copy. For people interested in seeing how people not yet on the property will have their benefits affected by this TA the best thing to do would be to use 12/31/2009 for the hire date. Selecting option 3 for a person of that hire date would show an A plan of zero and 13.5% in the B plan which is what people hired after 2009 will get if the TA passes. You can enter in hire dates after 12/31/09, but there won't be any options available to those people so if you want to make some sort of apples to apples comparison, use a hire date of 12/31/09. I'm not telling people to vote one way or the other, but merely trying to provide this software so people can make informed decisions. I would like to use this webboard as a place for people to ask questions about the program and to discuss the results. There are lots of variables to consider such as age at hire date, seat progression, future raises, B plan rates of return, etc. This can be a powerful tool for folks to use to help either with retirement planning or to weigh the different options of this TA. It is provided free of charge, however if you found the program useful and feel compelled to donate something, the most worthy cause I can think of is the furloughed pilots relief fund. We have 60 pilots on furlough with bills to pay every month. Under the People section on this webboard is a list of names and addresses, or Captain Sean Kerrick has volunteered to evenly distribute and forward any money sent to him to the furloughed pilots. You can send money to him at [email protected] via www.paypal.com and know that it will reach the furloughed pilots and their families. This is totally voluntary, contribute if you wish or don't, it is up to you.
PC Version: Here is the link to the file that will install the program. This is for Windows XP. It will probably run on Vista but you may have to set it to compatibility mode.
http://www.denalidocuments.com/RetirementForecastSetupTA.exe
Mac Version: This is a zip file that you will have to unzip. You can then drag the Retirement Forecast 2009 TA to your dock or do whatever it is you Mac people do.
http://www.denalidocuments.com/RetirementForecast2009TAmac.zip
I have developed a software tool that is designed to help pilots model the different retirement options available in the 2009 TA. It will prompt you for information, like your birthdate and date of hire, expected B plan return rate, etc., and then show you what your A plan and B plans will be worth at the date of retirement you choose. You can run the analysis using each of the options available under the TA, print them out and compare them. You can do the same for different rates of return and different retirement dates. It is loaded with all of the pay raises for each step as laid out in the TA, as well as past pay scales, to build a proper 120 month window and then it finds the best 60 months prior to either your retirement date, age 60, or if you select option 3 it also looks at 120 months prior to 1/1/2010.
A new feature in the version is the ability to also factor in future pay raises. You can specify a date in the future and a percentage that you think pay will increase (you can also do a pay cut, but let's not go there). The logic behind the pay raise feature is that it looks at the ratio between CA pay and FO pay for each step as of 4/1/2012. It then will increase CA pay by the percentage you specify and then set FO pay according to the ratio that was present in 2012 for each step. So if you selected a 2% raise, and it came out to be $3.60 per hour for a captain, it would increase CA pay by $3.60 per hour every year after that. FO pay would be set by multiplying CA pay by the ratio that was present in 2012.
The program employs the IRS limits for 401K contributions as well as limits on pension benefits. If you select the option to include a pay raise, it will ask you if you want to ignore those limits or include them. It is hard to predict what those limits will be in 20 years so it gives you the option of bypassing those to get a glimpse of what future benefits will look like after many years of incremental pay raises.
Early and late retirement benefits are also actuarially corrected according to your age at your expected retirement date.
The company has not released the 2009 actuarial factors for early/late retirement, max benefits, and lump sums. I have contacted them and received no response. I have incorporated estimated factors for 2009. These 2009 factors are then used for dates past 2009. Lump sums shown in later years will not be accurate but the single life annuity will be. The ESTIMATED 2009 actuarial factors used in this program are based on ALPA's understanding of how Alaska Airlines and their actuary are calculating these factors. You should not rely on these factors in making any decision regarding your retirement. In order to obtain accurate retirement benefit and lump sum information, you should request a benefit estimate from the Company. I have tried to make all of this as accurate as possible, but I want to be perfectly clear that this is not to be used to predict your actual retirement benefits. Contact the company if you want an estimate of your retirement benefits.
Some common questions may be:
How does it know what my best 60 months will be for the A plan?
It asks you what seat position you held on certain dates and when you plan on getting off reserve or upgrading, to build a database with months of pay based on your seat position and how many hours of pay you specify. For Option 1 and 2, it looks at two different 120 month windows; 120 months prior to retirement and 120 months prior to age 60 if applicable. It will use whichever period has the higher benefits based on final average earnings and the years of service at that point. For many people retiring after 60, the highest benefits are often achieved by taking the snapshot at age 60 and then actuarily increasing that benefit for the later retirement date. For option 3, it also looks at the 120 months prior to 1/1/2010 as laid out in the TA.
What is with all the clicking? Can't you just show all 3 options on one screen? Sheesh!
Well, the different data entry pages are in the order they are for a reason. There is a lot going on behind the scenes between each page and the entries need to be made in the proper order. For example, if you select option 3, the page that says "Enter the seat position you held on..." may have the date you turned 50, the date 10 years prior to retirement, the date 1/1/2010, or it might say "Enter your current position" if none of those apply. The best option is to print out different analyses and compare them side-by-side.
How does it decide my 401K contribution percentage?
If you leave that field blank it will adjust the percentage you contribute to make sure you maximize the company's contribution and don't exceed any limits. If you look at the monthly contributions you may notice your contribution falls off in December, that is because you are maxing out for the year. If you choose to model a pay raise and ignore those limits, this automatic feature will not work. You will need to manually enter a value and make sure it is reasonable. If you say you want to contribute some high number like 40% of your pay, it will let you do that with the limits turned off. This won't be a very accurate way to model your B plan, however. Keep it under 10 percent or so or keep a close eye on how much it is contributing if you have the limits turned off. You can view the monthly contribution page with annual subtotals by selecting it on the subtotal menu. Then click through the pages on the left side of the screen.
Where are the numbers this program is using?
On the page that you are viewing your benefit forecast click the view menu and select view factors used in this forecast. For option 2, you will notice that the retirement multiplier is not probably not .019. That is because what is shown is the average of .019 prior to 1/1/2010, and .01 thereafter. Actuarial adjustments are pro-rated. So if you are going to be 60.75 on the retirement date you specify, it will interpolate between the age 60 and age 61 factors to determine your benefits. You may notice pay scales appear to be annual figures, but they are not. Those are the hourly numbers without the decimal; the decimal is factored in during the calculations. There are 12 pages on this view, one for each step. If you selected to model pay raises, it shows you the rates of pay in the future through 2038. You can tell it to increase pay as of 4/1/2015, for example, and it will keep 2012 rates in place between 2012 and 4/1/2015, then create annual raises thereafter.
This program has not been evaluated or endorsed by Alaska Airlines, the ALA MEC, the ALPA retirement committee, or anyone else for that matter. Use at your own risk.
I am offering this software free of charge to whomever wants it. It will work during the voting period of the TA then it will cease to function. I own the right to distribute unlimited copies and anyone who is interested in the program is free to have a copy. For people interested in seeing how people not yet on the property will have their benefits affected by this TA the best thing to do would be to use 12/31/2009 for the hire date. Selecting option 3 for a person of that hire date would show an A plan of zero and 13.5% in the B plan which is what people hired after 2009 will get if the TA passes. You can enter in hire dates after 12/31/09, but there won't be any options available to those people so if you want to make some sort of apples to apples comparison, use a hire date of 12/31/09. I'm not telling people to vote one way or the other, but merely trying to provide this software so people can make informed decisions. I would like to use this webboard as a place for people to ask questions about the program and to discuss the results. There are lots of variables to consider such as age at hire date, seat progression, future raises, B plan rates of return, etc. This can be a powerful tool for folks to use to help either with retirement planning or to weigh the different options of this TA. It is provided free of charge, however if you found the program useful and feel compelled to donate something, the most worthy cause I can think of is the furloughed pilots relief fund. We have 60 pilots on furlough with bills to pay every month. Under the People section on this webboard is a list of names and addresses, or Captain Sean Kerrick has volunteered to evenly distribute and forward any money sent to him to the furloughed pilots. You can send money to him at [email protected] via www.paypal.com and know that it will reach the furloughed pilots and their families. This is totally voluntary, contribute if you wish or don't, it is up to you.
PC Version: Here is the link to the file that will install the program. This is for Windows XP. It will probably run on Vista but you may have to set it to compatibility mode.
http://www.denalidocuments.com/RetirementForecastSetupTA.exe
Mac Version: This is a zip file that you will have to unzip. You can then drag the Retirement Forecast 2009 TA to your dock or do whatever it is you Mac people do.
http://www.denalidocuments.com/RetirementForecast2009TAmac.zip
