Airtran Ups Offer for Midwest

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Saw the above news on TV this morning. I think the merger will happen. Both sides are negotiating, which means neither side said no.

cliff
GRB

 

[248to2.8]

Hi!
I think the merger will happen. Both sides are negotiating, which means neither side said no.

cliff
GRB

Well I think it won't. So there...

And they aren't negotiating. AAI went straight to the shareholders and bypassed the board, which is in the middle of a road show for the shareholders. I guess they are explaining how not having a business plan, and 15% planned growth is better for them than a company that is going to poast a loss for the year.
Very interesting to see what happens.

 

[Lear70]

Well I think it won't. So there...

And they aren't negotiating. AAI went straight to the shareholders and bypassed the board, which is in the middle of a road show for the shareholders. I guess they are explaining how not having a business plan, and 15% planned growth is better for them than a company that is going to poast a loss for the year.
Very interesting to see what happens.

Not to encourage two threads about the same thing going on simultaneously, but...

Who's posting a loss for the year? I was under the impression that MEH was going to be profitable this year?

If you're referring to AAI, we had a bad 4th quarter, but the 2006 year overall will be profitable.

Just trying to figure out what you really meant,,,

 

[fam62c]

This will be decided by the shareholders not MEH management or the "cheerleaders" who work for MEH and live in Milwaukee. The community may love riding on Midwest but they don't own the company. I don't think that any smart investor believes MEH stock will be worth 13.25+ if not for the Airtran offer. This stock was at less then 10 when Airtran made the first offer and this was after 2 quarters of profitability so the expectations for MEH are up and the easy gains are over. Also, Midwest's "growth" figures are largely dependend on 50 seat RJ's operated by a 3rd party. They cite revenue and capacity growth as a result of this flying but they don't talk about earnings growth. There may be little or nothing (read loss) left after they pay Skywest's operating costs and guaranteed profit. It's a good deal for the Skywest shareholders but it may not be a good deal for the MEH shareholders. Midwest doesn't really have a long-term growth strategy, they never have. Midwest doesn't have even one order for an aircraft type that's currently in production and everything they operate is out of production. It's going to be tough for MEH to convince shareholders that they will be better off financially with a stand-alone MEH. Cookies, leather seats and good service will only accomplish so much, you also need a viable growth plan. When the emotion is taken out of the equation this is about money and I think that AAI will prevail. This is business.

 

[FlyWolf]

fam62c, I think its not as simple as that.

Here is an article which explain a little about Wisconsin law and the poison pill that Midex have in place.

http://milwaukee.bizjournals.com/milwauk...

 

[FlyAirtran]

So whats your opinion FlyWolf? I dont think anyone has asked what the Midwest guys think about the merger? Are the majority for or against it? Do they think it would be good or bad for them? Surely seniority is a great concern but what else? Serious question. I have a friend who is sitting around 20 from the bottom on your seniority list, and he seems for it mostly. Just wondering what others at Midwest think.

 

[FlyWolf]

So whats your opinion FlyWolf? I dont think anyone has asked what the Midwest guys think about the merger? Are the majority for or against it? Do they think it would be good or bad for them? Surely seniority is a great concern but what else? Serious question. I have a friend who is sitting around 20 from the bottom on your seniority list, and he seems for it mostly. Just wondering what others at Midwest think.

FlyAirtran, from what I have seen some captains are against it, but some captains I talked to are very excited about it (some senior guys too).

F/O wise, a lot of guys for it or being neutral, myself I think its a positive news but not looking forward to merging the seniority and all the mess which accompany the mergers.

As I said it before, I do have a lot of respect for what Airtran achieved during the past hard years. I have quite a few friends at Airtran.

I think most guys including myself with young family and kids are just afraid of the unknown.

So, since nothing any of us can do, I am just hoping for the best.

 

[Flydaplane]

Some days I'm for it and some I'm against it. The whole unknown factor of seniority and domiciles. I fear Midwest's management which has been so reluctant to do anything and the fact that they're basing they're growth on 50 seat RJ's.
I also fear AirTran's Management, mainly for this reason. Last year our stock was at 1.10 a share at one point. The tried to be friendly about a buyout and were rejected. They should have done what they did in Dec (going public with the 290 Million dollar offer) one year prior to when they did. Heck they probably could have offered $200 Million and the stockholders would have jumped at it. Instead they waited until our stock had already skyrocketed and was continuing to go up. Now, even if the merger/buyout goes through, Airtran is out tens of millions of dollars (offering 13.25 a share?) that they could have saved by using the same tactics a year earlier. Lesson #1 to Joe Buy LOW Sell High (or at least don't buy high).

 

[Lear70]

I think most guys including myself with young family and kids are just afraid of the unknown.

So, since nothing any of us can do, I am just hoping for the best.

Amen.

 

[Eagle757shark]

According to Yahoo Finance: "Midwest Advises Shareholders to Defer Taking Any Action at This Time in Response to AirTran Offer." The board of directors of Midwest Air Group requested the shareholders take no action at this time. The board will review and consider AirTran's offer and will make a recommendation to shareholders within 10 business days.

Well it looks like from this press release the wheels are turning. I guess this offer now has the attention of the board of directors and the negotiations may be about to begin. Best of luck to all of us involved. I'm just trying to make it doing the thing I love til retirement! (20 plus years)

 

[248to2.8]

I was just rambling. Not really serious at all in the first post. I'm pretty neutral about the whole thing. I would hate commuting to ATL, but I don't really have any seniority to lose, and upgrade might actually happen faster with a merger. But I would almost rather sit here in MKE for the next 5 years or so instead of commute. SO either way, it's pretty much a wash for me. I've heard some of the more senior (erased older there) Captains a little worried, as a lot of them have gone thru the Republic and other mergers. They also have the most to lose. I think MEH has better service by far, but at least AAI has a business plan.

 

[FlyWolf]

I think (and God knows I have been wrong before) that strength is in number, and after the merger the new company size will be able to face competition and hostile environment more successfully, that means job security for all employees. As 248to2.8 mentioned above maybe we (MEH) can bring our dedication to good customer service to the new AAI and AAI bring a sound business plan and new 737's

 

[SkiFishFly]

I think (and God knows I have been wrong before) that strength is in number, and after the merger the new company size will be able to face competition and hostile environment more successfully, that means job security for all employees. As 248to2.8 mentioned above maybe we (MEH) can bring our dedication to good customer service to the new AAI and AAI bring a sound business plan and new 737's

Amen to that!

 

[FlyAirtran]

Ill second that .. here here!! Cheers guys!

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Anymore news on NWA also bidding for Midex?

Thanx!

cliff
GRB

 

[Lear70]

I think that was all just a large rumor. NWA is a little busy with the DAL / UAir thing at the moment.

NWA management has balls, but I don't think even they would try a double acquisition / merger when they haven't even exited bankruptcy yet.