Airtran Stock?!!??

[funnyman12]

Anyone have any clue on why AAI was down to $3.32 today...as of right now it is down over 40%. Not good to see!

 

[Lear70]

I'm hearing quite a few things:

1. 1st quarter loss quite a bit higher than expected, AND
2. Selling several 717's and furloughs around the corner, AND
3. Bankruptcy concerns from several media "sources"...

Personally, I was wondering why our stock was upgraded to "outperform" just prior to several senior management officials cashing in their stock, but we all know it's illegal to tamper with stock prices like that.

Back up to $4.19, but still down 33% for the day. It's in perfect position for a hostile (or not-so-hostile) takeover. However, only 2 carriers that I'm aware of have the cash to do it and still keep enough cash on hand to weather the downturn.

 

[captain dad]

Massive sell off. Volume over 11,000,000 and still climbing. Not good. Sorry guys. Hold tough.

Black April continues.

Good luck.

 

[jester757]

I heard that SWA has a copy of your senoirty list and is mulling it over (this from an airtran guy who left for DAL and is in class now...one of your union guys) He seemed to think that a take-over by SWA was not far away. He felt it would be a take over for the 737s, gates, etc. and they would cut the 717s. Just his opinion...but he said he was in the "know" over there.

 

[Lear70]

I heard that SWA has a copy of your senoirty list and is mulling it over (this from an airtran guy who left for DAL and is in class now...one of your union guys) He seemed to think that a take-over by SWA was not far away. He felt it would be a take over for the 737s, gates, etc. and they would cut the 717s. Just his opinion...but he said he was in the "know" over there.

That rumor has been floating around since before I got hired.

What you're talking about is the fragmentation of the airline and it's highly unlikely, even with the plummeting of the stock price today, that the shareholders would buy off on it without making a LOT of money off the sale - probably at somewhere close to the 52-week high of AAI stock (which is still close to $12 per share or a market cap of about $1.1 Billion).

I doubt anyone is going to pay that much for just the 737 side of the house AND take the hit on getting rid of everything else.

If AAI stock stays where it is now for the next few months, that may change, but it's not time for fragmentation yet.

p.s. Tell YL we said "hi".

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

THey could "cut" the -717s, but they'd have to keep the pilots on the new seniority list, due to the new law Congress passed after the AA/TWA debacle. Oh, and they could NOT be stapled to the bottom-if the two pilot groups don't agree to seniority integration, it goes to final arbitration.

cliff
YIP

 

[jester757]

Hi!

THey could "cut" the -717s, but they'd have to keep the pilots on the new seniority list, due to the new law Congress passed after the AA/TWA debacle. Oh, and they could NOT be stapled to the bottom-if the two pilot groups don't agree to seniority integration, it goes to final arbitration.

cliff
YIP

Sadly, that law has holes in it you could drive a truck through. It comes down to how the judge will read it and asses both sides case. It is not cut and dry - but with the exception of mgmt's greed, what is?

 

[Lear70]

Hi!

THey could "cut" the -717s,

Do you have any idea how expensive that would likely be?

Who's going to take that many 717's when the market's already going to have a glut of Airbus and Boeings available from the recent airline closures, plus maybe more from F9's pending bankruptcy, not to mention the rumors of Midwest parking airplanes and furloughing?

I see a buyer more than likely keeping everything intact, then slowly getting rid of the 717's later, when the market can absorb them better.

but they'd have to keep the pilots on the new seniority list, due to the new law Congress passed after the AA/TWA debacle. Oh, and they could NOT be stapled to the bottom-if the two pilot groups don't agree to seniority integration, it goes to final arbitration.

cliff
YIP

Yes, and No.

Playing devil's advocate, IF the company was sold to Southwest, Yes, they'd have to take ALL the pilots per the new law.

However, there's a couple caveats to that. First, they'd system flush by seniority - all the senior 717 guys would displace hundreds of 737 captains to F/O and F/O's to the street. Lots of training costs.

2nd, per Nic, all the people who were furloughed could (and probably would) find themselves stapled to the bottom of the Southwest list. After all, they will only have jobs as Southwest grows and would be "lucky" to have jobs at all, right? (oh boy, here we go, I brought up Nic).

Lastly, people in the pool at Southwest would likely find themselves swimming for YEARS.

I just don't see Southwest furloughing people (they never have before), not to mention taking that big a hit on the 717's at fire sale. Their management is a lot smarter than that...

 

[~~~^~~~]

Wow, I sold AAI at $17.00+

Last time they gave up the Critter for dead it was down to $2.40.

Uncle Joe, Uncle Joe, paging Uncle Joe to Concourse C.