Airtran Airways Mdw Expansion Jan '05

[lowecur]

Lowecur,
Grow up.

By the way, it's not your airline....you just work there.

I will say that this is not good news for AWA. By allowing you to use the ATA gate, this pretty much says that you will either get the gates, or those gates will be split. It also disposes of the notion that the AAI offer is "all or nothing."

There is a teleconference over at Fitch Ratings that I plan to listen to. They will be talking about the Bond Ratings at MDW, and what affect the ATA pullout will have. Hopefully, they may have some inside information that I can pass along.

 

[lowecur]

I also don't put too much weight in what many analysts say however here is what I believe. I believe that Airtran is going to be in a very precarious situation because of some very important reasons.

I'm not buying your logic. First of all SWA is going to have it's hands full with PHL if UAIR doesn't liquidate, and MDW if they don't get any extra gates. Add the problems they are having with the Wright amendment, and that will leave them with only DFW to expand in Dallas.

 

[Ty Webb]

I believe that Airtran is going to be in a very precarious situation because of some very important reasons.

I think what you really mean is that you hope AirTran will be in a precarious position.

First and foremost Airtran is going to be in competition with Southwest in Chicago. That can not be underestimated.

.

No, but it sure can be overestimated and hyped, which is pretty much what your post is about. SWA is under the same pressures the rest of us are. Were it not for the fuel hedging, they would be hard pressed to make a profit last quarter, too. The last thing they need to do is start a fare war at MDW while fighting USAirways in PHL, and fighting the DAL v. DFW situation. We get along just fine at BWI and PHL, and I don;t see any reason it won't work at MDW, too.

Southwest is very capable of putting tremendous pressure on Airtran and I dare to say can run them out of any market of their choosing.
Southwest is that good. They can put increased pressure on them out of BWI if they choose to force Airtran to divert resources and attention away from Chicago or in addition to Chicago.

Sure, they can put pressure on us, but I don't think that they are going to make as big a deal of it as you do. See the above. How many balls do you think they want to keep in the air? Smart competitors pick and choose their battles, and SWA is a smart competitor. Delta, on the other hand, has not been. They have eroded their cash position form $6 Bil to $1 Bil trying to hold on to "market share" in markets they can't profitably serve. I have been pointing that out for three years now. I also predicted that it would be Mullin's undoing . . . and it was.

Delta looks like they are starting to get themselves on better financial footing, albeit not out of the woods yet but certainly in a better position to compete with Airtran out of Atlanta. [?QUOTE]

See the above. Delta can continue to lose money fighting us for the low-fare customer, or focus their efforts on making money. Right now, I would say that they had better focus on making money where they can, or they will go Chap. 11. That should be obvious.

Jetblue, Southwest, Song and UsAir (yes UsAir) will keep Airtran at bay on the east coast. Any Midwest expansion will be tempered by Southwest's dominance. Expansion to the west will be fierce with America West, Ted, and even Frontier.

This is just silly. You could substitute any carrier's name here.

Airtran has also expanded as a hub and spoke carrier. A model that has some troubling characteristics and they are increasing their operations based on a hub and spoke system.

Your last statement reveals how little knowlege you have about AirTran. Actually, we have been reducing the hub-and-spoke structure. In the past three years, we have increased the number of flights by nearly 50%, yet Atlanta has grown by only about 28%. More and more directs are added each month.

Don;t worry about us. Profitable in 9 out of the past 10 quarters during some of the toughest years in the industry . . . . I think we'll do just fine, and as for that competition from USAirways, please . . . if you are thinking of making it as an analyst in this industry, my advice is don't quit your day job.

 

[FLB717]

Lowecur,
Yes it is MY AIRLINE. Not only do I own stock in the company, but I take ownership in how I run my aircraft. I fly trips as safe as skill and planning will allow, and do what ever I can to save fuel, help passengers etc, because the job I help to save may be my own. Just like most pilots in MY company and those who try every day to help keep thiers alive.

The more you post on this board the more cocky and extreame your views become, but thats just my view. I guess I'm cocky too, hey that rhymes.

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur,
Yes it is MY AIRLINE. Not only do I own stock in the company, but I take ownership in how I run my aircraft. I also own stock in AAI, and I don't consider it my airline. When I fly to ROC, I try to be pleasant to all the crew members and fellow pax, not because I consider myself an owner, but because it's the right thing to do.

.....

 

[FLB717]

Les..., I mean Lowecur,
Not only have you missed the point, I see talking with you is like wrestling with a pig in the mud, after a while you realize the pig likes it. Have a good day.

 

[lowecur]

Les..., I mean Lowecur,
Not only have you missed the point, I see talking with you is like wrestling with a pig in the mud, after a while you realize the pig likes it. Have a good day.

It takes two to wrestle in the mud. Did you know even a broken clock is right twice a day? Another Euphemism from another genius at AirTran.

 

[habubuaza]

"I think what you really mean is that you hope AirTran will be in a precarious position."

.


"Your last statement reveals how little knowlege you have about AirTran. Actually, we have been reducing the hub-and-spoke structure. In the past three years, we have increased the number of flights by nearly 50%, yet Atlanta has grown by only about 28%. More and more directs are added each month."

"if you are thinking of making it as an analyst in this industry, my advice is don't quit your day job."

OK handsome, never said I was an analyst. I specified it was one man's opinion. So if it makes you feel good to make attacks personal go right ahead. I don't have any problems with Airtran I have a few friends there. I just feel, and have always felt that they have certain vulnerabilities specific to THEM.

 

[Ty Webb]

It takes two to wrestle in the mud. Did you know even a broken clock is right twice a day? Another Euphemism from another genius at AirTran.

Well, at least this genius had the testicular fortitude to identify a goal, pursue it, stick to it, accomplish it, and enjoy it, instead of becoming a "wannabe" who hangs out on a website dedicated to pilots, spending his time trying to annoy those who accomplished what he hasn't.

 

[lowecur]

Well, at least this genius had the testicular fortitude to identify a goal, pursue it, stick to it, accomplish it, and enjoy it, instead of becoming a "wannabe" who hangs out on a website dedicated to pilots, spending his time trying to annoy those who accomplished what he hasn't.

Oooo, low blow, Ty. I used to like you.

For your information, I did all that I set out to do in life and I've accomplished much more. I never wanted to be in the "airline business," it just happens to be one of my many luvs in life. So as a sidelight, I offer my amateur analcyst prognostications for perusal for those who wish to peruse.

Incidently, from what little I have talked with you, that is an absolute miracle.

 

[Dennis Miller]

I offer my amateur analcyst prognostications for perusal for those who wish to peruse.

Isn't that the mantra of Professor Marvel from the Wizard of Oz?

 

[lowecur]

Isn't that the mantra of Professor Marvel from the Wizard of Oz?

Absolutely correct, Sir! Do you work for AirTran?

 

[atafan]

I know that SWA is a tough customer but they are not invincible. ATA lost to SWA at MDW because of managment's total incompetence. I think AirTran could give SWA a run for their money in MDW and certainly hold their own. I think AWA could also co-exist with SWA in MDW, they have proven that they can compete with SWA.

I just wish I'd be around to watch.

 

[UALjan15]

Your last statement reveals how little knowlege you have about AirTran. Actually, we have been reducing the hub-and-spoke structure. In the past three years, we have increased the number of flights by nearly 50%, yet Atlanta has grown by only about 28%. More and more directs are added each month.

Hey, I actually learned something sorting through this drivel. I always thought of AirTran as pure ATL hub-and-spoke, but I checked out your website (http://www.airtran.com/destinations/routemap/index.jsp) and was blown away by how much you guys have grown. Especially in flights not originating or destined for ATL. BTW, that interactive map on the website is very slick.

 

[Ty Webb]

Wow. I hadn't seen that route map . . . thanks for the link. I guess I learned something, too.

When I started here three years ago, we had 350 flights a day, now it is somewhere around 530, I believe. 1000 pilots now, and supposed to be 2000 in the next four years, according to the COO.

 

[mohrmjr]

For those of you that are not familiar with AirTran... Southwest does not fly to many markets we serve. Southwest is big in MDW but they don't serve BOS,LGA,EWR,DCA,IAD,RSW,SRQ,DEN,MSP,PIT etc... If AirTran gets slots at LGA and BOS... there will be no competing service other than SWA flying to BWI from any airline at MDW. These are big business markets and right now SWA is still avoiding the larger markets that have a potential for delays. AirTran is very successful in these cities already.

For example out of BWI AirTran is having huge success. Most markets out of BWI do not even compete with SWA. So SWA is a factor on competing routes but if they don't fly there then... Mgt. has stated that BWI is more profitable than ATL..hence we are continuing to grow at BWI!! With or without SWA.

Southwest certainly doesn't fly to Akron/Canton..another huge AirTran success city and Dayton, OH, not to mention Flint and Blomington/Normal,ILL.

Additionally whatever the City of Chicago posts as who has what gates this stuff changes from day to day. We could lease additional gates from CO during an off-peak period etc... airlines make it work. If the ATA gates do not come through folks have a plan 'B', 'C' etc... Airlines swap gates all the time...

 

[CitrusGuy]

Finally somebody hit the nail on the head. We are not gonna pay $90M for the privilege to punch an 800 pound gorilla in the nose. I think AirTran will expand into markets not served by SWA or in underserved markets (by LCCs). SWA has always been a smart competitor and is not gonna get involved in any silly turf games unless it helps their bottom line. I don't think even the so called financial experts realize this. If you view AirTran's and SWA's route structur there is very little overlap if you look at nonstop flights. Just my 2 cents.
Citrus

 

[75M]

OK, well before this all came down, I spoke to a management pilot for SWA who said that SWA does very well when they split an airport with an airline who compliments their service (as opposed to sharing an airport with an airline who competes for the same passengers).

I think the relationship between SWA and TZ at MDW was perfect, TZ had the Carribbean, Mexico, longer haul, etc, vs. what we all know SWA does. The problem was that ATA didn't have the RASM to make it work, while their costs were admirably low the revenue per available seat mile wasn't working.

Hopefully (and I think it will be) our strategy will be to compliment SWA and not compete directly against them on the majority of our routes.

 

[CaptSeth]

We have a great thing going, management BLEW it by buying inapropriately sized aircraft for too much money. If we bought the -700 or the 717, we wouldn't be having this discussion at all.

Incidentally, I told them personally in 2002 the airplanes were too big. They blew me off, even though we could probably have converted -800 deliveries to something else. What do I know? I'm just a jerky pilot...

 

[vc10]

Then why did Airtran just announce MDW service including three overlapping markets---FLL, TPA, MCO?

For those of you that are not familiar with AirTran... Southwest does not fly to many markets we serve. Southwest is big in MDW but they don't serve BOS,LGA,EWR,DCA,IAD,RSW,SRQ,DEN,MSP,PIT etc... If AirTran gets slots at LGA and BOS... there will be no competing service other than SWA flying to BWI from any airline at MDW.

 

[fletch717]

Because VC10 the florida market is where over 50% of our revenue comes from. As a whole we don't go head to head with southwest on most of our routes. I might also point out that TPA-BWI, MCO-BWI,TPA-PHL,MCO-PHL,FLL-BWI are all routes we share with LUV.

Fletch