Airlines facing pilot shortage, flight school leaders say

[HalinTexas]

Hellllooooo.

Still out of work here. Don't want to take a paycut from unemployment for a flying job either.

 

[TransMach]

Pilot Shortage

Considering that the military nor the civilian sector are producing pilots in any measurable number, a need (not a shortage) of pilots will eventually present itself. Once the economic system gets itself back in order and growth again is the norm, the guys 'n gals who are currently out of work will find their way back to cockpits. Unfortunately this will be at a discounted earning rate.

When the need for more pilots appears, experienced pilots will be in short supply. This is when the earning rates will increase and new folks will enter the profession. It's the normal, albeit slow, cyclic effect.

Simple supply and demand. Nothing more.

Yes, there is going to be a need for more pilots than there currently are available. But that's not a shortage, that's just normal supply and demand taking it's course.

But that's just my opinion and most folks don't like it.

Good news, guys like me in their early 50s with sound experience and current ratings will earn more money in the future than we have in the past! And we'll have a good long run at it, maybe more than 10 years. Goooooody!

TransMach

 

[ksu_aviator]

Considering that the military nor the civilian sector are producing pilots in any measurable number, a need (not a shortage) of pilots will eventually present itself. Once the economic system gets itself back in order and growth again is the norm, the guys 'n gals who are currently out of work will find their way back to cockpits. Unfortunately this will be at a discounted earning rate.

When the need for more pilots appears, experienced pilots will be in short supply. This is when the earning rates will increase and new folks will enter the profession. It's the normal, albeit slow, cyclic effect.

Simple supply and demand. Nothing more.

Yes, there is going to be a need for more pilots than there currently are available. But that's not a shortage, that's just normal supply and demand taking it's course.

But that's just my opinion and most folks don't like it.

Good news, guys like me in their early 50s with sound experience and current ratings will earn more money in the future than we have in the past! And we'll have a good long run at it, maybe more than 10 years. Goooooody!

TransMach

Your assumption is that the economy will turn around. You should look at the history of the USSR's financial system. The parallels are undeniable. If the fed keeps printing money the way they are and Obama keeps spending like they are, we may be looking at a decade or more before things turn around.

We only have one solution to our problems. Cut government spending by 60% or more, eliminate the practice of printing money and radically change our tax code. Any thing short of that will fail.

 

[Rick James]

Your assumption is that the economy will turn around. You should look at the history of the USSR's financial system. The parallels are undeniable. If the fed keeps printing money the way they are and Obama keeps spending like they are, we may be looking at a decade or more before things turn around.

We only have one solution to our problems. Cut government spending by 60% or more, eliminate the practice of printing money and radically change our tax code. Any thing short of that will fail.

I agree, the "turnaround" may not ever happen. Our Nobel winner may be emboldened to keep the course of printing money and ignoring wars.

 

[William Holiday]

You know back to this pilot shortage thing, I met a guy, who had just left United after a 30 year career. He was hired out of college with comm/inst lic. When we talking he had said he had no dreams of ever becoming a Pro Pilot, but when this recruiter came to his college he said he'd give a wack, and loved it. I think he also said they paid for training after he got his private. Nice deal.

 

[say again]

And how many folks are sitting on the sidelines looking for work in this business?

I am.

 

[lookin4better]

As long as there are thousands of kids in this industry who have their parents pay rent, car payments and flight school tuition at a pilot puppy mill and continue paying these bills once they are employed in a flying job ...... we are all in trouble.

 

[bizjet800]

"Pilot puppy mill" now that's just funny!!

What's not funny is when a flight school predicts a pilot shortage! Kind of a conflict of interest if you ask me. We used to be a capitalistic society, not even sure if we are socialist, seems to me we're steamrolling into communism (sp?) That said, the normal ebb and flow of supply and demand are diminished by government interference. What does the school propose? More government student loans to throw at this "problem" all in the middle of a near depression? When thousands of pilots are out of work?

 

[ksu_aviator]

"Pilot puppy mill" now that's just funny!!

What's not funny is when a flight school predicts a pilot shortage! Kind of a conflict of interest if you ask me. We used to be a capitalistic society, not even sure if we are socialist, seems to me we're steamrolling into communism (sp?) That said, the normal ebb and flow of supply and demand are diminished by government interference. What does the school propose? More government student loans to throw at this "problem" all in the middle of a near depression? When thousands of pilots are out of work?

I'm seriously considering increasing the pilot shortage by opening up a beer barn. Imagine sitting back, drink some cold ones and collecting money from guys that wish they could sit around all day drinking beer like me.

And when I say serious, I have a lawyer and licensing firm, distributer and I'm just working on the building and funding.

 

[LJ45]

follow up article:

http://blogs.flyingmag.com/left_sea...-and-jumping-to-conclusions-about-buffal.html

 

[CA1900]

Not trying to change the subject or create a flamebait; but purely out of a lack of knowledge on the subject, what makes Gulfstream pilots, as some say, "inferior"? Are they poorly trained?

Leaving the ethics of what they do aside, I'm not sure why they are how they are. But I've flown with a number of former Gulfstream Airlines pilots, and with very few exceptions, they were terrible pilots. They weren't even in the same league with pilots from different backgrounds that had the same number of hours. They were rough on the controls, couldn't land worth a damn, and just lacked any real-world experience. I had one who was incapable of a visual approach on a clear day!

The guys who flew freight, did charters, or even instructed for a couple of years, were far better pilots than the Gulfstream guys. I don't know if that's a side effect of the program, or just coincided with the kinds of guys who would pay for a job the rest of us had to earn, but it wasn't a good fit at all.

 

[ultrarunner]

First of all, it is reasonable to assume that most 121 carriers know how many bodies they will need over the next decade or two. And it is even easier to quantify the retirement numbers since that is a know drop-dead-date.

With both those boxes filled, you can get pretty darn close to how many folks will need to come through the pipeline.

And remember, a shortage is not always because of a body shortage. Any perceived "shortage" over the next decade or two will be the result of people doing something else because the race to the bottom never stopped! IMHO.

 

[G-force]

Re: No interest anymore!!!

That was an article in AOPA, people still read that?

Regardless, one of the DAL/DCI companies a few years back paid to have a study done on the exact issue (I found it humorous that Comair Academy is having a symposium on it now). Anyway, the study was provided to the regionals at the time which concluded there were not enough in the pipeline when significant hiring would occur. Leaving the regionals between a rock and a hard place, this was assuming anyone with 121 PIC would be moving upwards.

The numbers predicted an incredible shortage that in 2012 there would literally no pilots to draw from.

The other spin at the time, some of the puppy mills had the bright idea to "charge" regionals for each qualified candidate that was selected and hired by that regional. It was reverse marketing, we have the people, make a deal and you get rights to interview them. This was in early '07, while I don't think I have the study anymore it had some interesting numbers and was backed with some credibility.

I honestly thought they puppy mills had a scam, get the student coming in the front door and the regional as the candidate was going out the back door.

Who wants to start a career with a reg'l that pays $1300/month??Not too many!!!Since ratings cost far more now than when they did even 10 yrs. ago!!!
There is just no interest in this career anymore!!!

 

[Rerouted]

It's an interesting equation. We have a large number of retirements coming up in the airlines. The flight schools (puppy mills and otherwise) aren't creating many pilots, but we do have thousands of pilots out of work and working overseas. The economy's a disaster and any recovery will be slow at best. I really hope there will be a huge shortage in the near future...but there are too many factors at play to know anything. Supply and demand hasn't seemed to have any influence over QOL and pay since deregulation in this industry. It will be interesting to see what happens, but I for one won't be making any bets.

 

[bizjet800]

It reminds me of those commercials for chefs that promise Starting pay of $60k+, yeah right!!