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Air Canada & AmWest & USAirways Now?

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storminpilot

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http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0430economy30.html

Air Canada has AmWest, US Airways merger ties


Dawn Gilbertson
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 30, 2005 12:00 AM

Another airline has been linked to a possible America West merger with US Airways.

The latest speculation focuses on Air Canada. The Toronto Star this week quoted a "Wall Street source" as saying the carrier may be in talks with both US Airways and America West Airlines in a deal that may see Air Canada take on international traffic while a combined US Airways-America West handles domestic U.S. traffic. It did not mention how such a deal would be structured.

Air Canada's chairman didn't rule out a possible merger for the airline on a conference call, the newspaper reported, but he seemed to be commenting on its role in industry consolidation in general. The discussion was a footnote in a story about the airline's $6 billion order for Boeing jets this week.

"Consolidation in the North American industry is inevitable," said Robert Milton, chairman of the airline's parent company. "To the extent Air Canada is or isn't part of that is yet to be determined."

The airlines are not strangers to each other.

Air Canada and US Airways are both members of the same airline alliance, the Star Alliance, a network of airlines that feed passengers to each other globally. They also have both used Seabury Group for investment banking.

On the America West side there's a Texas Pacific Group connection. The private equity firm brought America West out of bankruptcy a decade ago and, together with Air Canada, invested in Continental Airlines to bring it out of bankruptcy in 1993.

TPG still owns a controlling interest in America West and is seen as a key player in any merger. The extent of its role is unclear.

Rick Schifter, managing partner of TPG, wouldn't comment at an airline conference in Phoenix this week. But his overall comments on industry consolidation seemed to suggest that the airline is lukewarm on any further investments at this point.

He said the industry is "still sucking wind" because the success of low-cost carriers have brought about dramatic change in the rest of the industry.

"That gives us some pause as we look at the industry today," he said.

He also said the firm, a legendary bargain hunter, doesn't see a lot of steals out there because there is so much capital chasing few deals. That drives prices up.

He said they continue to keep an eye on the industry, "but we're fairly cautious at this stage."
 
Cerberus

Cerberus is the main investor in AC with $1.1B. They are out of NYC, and if they are involved they would somehow try to tie their investment in AC to the deal. My guess is an Air Canada USA subsidiary for international flts where control is limited to 25%, with the rest controlled by the new holding company for UAIR/AWA.

Whoever wants to invest a large sum in this merger would have to control the holding company. It sounds like TPG is more than willing to relinquish control if someone else steps to the plate with the money. TPG wants Doug Parker at the controls, and I would doubt there is any disagreement from Cerberus if they wanted into the deal.
 
Into the sh!tter - along with my career.

On a lighter note - a senior captain buddy (SteveG, BusBabe, you know who I'm talking about) just finished recurrent and experienced the new "brown bag lunch" forum with Doug Parker. Quote from Doogie... "We will not proceed with the merger with US Airways if it requires America West Airlines to lose jobs or cash."

We'll see... I'm actually feeling pretty optimistic/opportunistic about the whole thing - and I'm a pessimist to the core. Ask anyone.
 
Focus said:
Awa Stock is Low...Where do you see it going if the deal goes through???
My guess is the holding company stock would be new issue with awa shareholders receiving shares through the merger. UAIR present shares would be retired and declared worthless, with new issue to investors before receiving similar deal as AWA from the holding company. If the new investor is Cerberus and they are kicking in lots of cash to back the deal, then AWA share price should increase prior to actual merger. Lots of speculation here, but I'm sure much will leak out in the next 30 days.
 

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