AGE 60 passes Senate today..

[Beetle007]

People like to look at how much you can save for retirement and use fancy numbers for compounding and interest rates. People say if you save X amount of dollars a year you will have 1 million (or whatever) amount of money when you retire. Yeah.... But 1 million dollars in 35 years isn't going to go to far. Maybe I will be able to buy a car.

How much money do you think a captain will be making in 35 years? Maybe 500K -700K+ a year in future dollars. If they are still making 100-200K in 35 years then all of us young guys are in for a world of hurt.

The reality is, your money might barely keep up with inflation and devaluation. Housing, Healthcare, Gas, and most energy costs have doubled or trippled in the past 5 years. So, if your investments doubled or trippled in the past 5 years, you are just braking even. Try picking up a copy of the 401K hoax (book) and you will realize why trying to save for retirement by the age of 60 is almost impossible at average wages and without a pension or social security.

I would rather have the 5 extra years of pay than a few extra dollars from upgrading earlier etc. In reality, age 65 will probably effect your upgrade or career advancement by 2-3 years, and you will have 5 years of extra earnings at future pay rates (which will be higher than todays due to inflation and devaluation of the dollar).

 

[jtm2222]

F**k all you bastards who want to fly till your 65

 

[PuffDriver]

People like to look at how much you can save for retirement and use fancy numbers for compounding and interest rates. People say if you save X amount of dollars a year you will have 1 million (or whatever) amount of money when you retire. Yeah.... But 1 million dollars in 35 years isn't going to go to far. Maybe I will be able to buy a car.

How much money do you think a captain will be making in 35 years? Maybe 500K -700K+ a year in future dollars. If they are still making 100-200K in 35 years then all of us young guys are in for a world of hurt.

The reality is, your money might barely keep up with inflation and devaluation. Housing, Healthcare, Gas, and most energy costs have doubled or trippled in the past 5 years. So, if your investments doubled or trippled in the past 5 years, you are just braking even. Try picking up a copy of the 401K hoax (book) and you will realize why trying to save for retirement by the age of 60 is almost impossible at average wages and without a pension or social security.

I would rather have the 5 extra years of pay than a few extra dollars from upgrading earlier etc. In reality, age 65 will probably effect your upgrade or career advancement by 2-3 years, and you will have 5 years of extra earnings at future pay rates (which will be higher than todays due to inflation and devaluation of the dollar).

then you ain't good enough at math.

40 years old xtra 30K per year from upgrade--for 5 years= 219K, and that's at only 6%. Then take that and go for another 15--age 60=1,265,995 at same 6%. There's nothing fancy about it. That is reality. 5 years cost this guy 1,000,000--very conservatively. Throw in another 10K raise and 2% per year and it is very close to 2,000,000.

Sorry, you don't get to assume 500K 20 years from now.

A bad deal for under 60 pilots any way you slice it

 

[PCL_128]

People like to look at how much you can save for retirement and use fancy numbers for compounding and interest rates. People say if you save X amount of dollars a year you will have 1 million (or whatever) amount of money when you retire. Yeah.... But 1 million dollars in 35 years isn't going to go to far. Maybe I will be able to buy a car.

How much money do you think a captain will be making in 35 years? Maybe 500K -700K+ a year in future dollars. If they are still making 100-200K in 35 years then all of us young guys are in for a world of hurt.

The reality is, your money might barely keep up with inflation and devaluation. Housing, Healthcare, Gas, and most energy costs have doubled or trippled in the past 5 years. So, if your investments doubled or trippled in the past 5 years, you are just braking even. Try picking up a copy of the 401K hoax (book) and you will realize why trying to save for retirement by the age of 60 is almost impossible at average wages and without a pension or social security.

I would rather have the 5 extra years of pay than a few extra dollars from upgrading earlier etc. In reality, age 65 will probably effect your upgrade or career advancement by 2-3 years, and you will have 5 years of extra earnings at future pay rates (which will be higher than todays due to inflation and devaluation of the dollar).

Oh, good grief. The average person, investing in stocks and mutual funds, will achieve a rate of return of between 8-10% a year. Inflation has averaged about 3.5% a year since the end of the great depression. Even less over the past couple of decades. That means that your rate of return will be over double the increase in the cost of living. There are some calculators out there on the net that will help you calculate, accounting for average inflation, the amount of money you'll need at retirement to keep the same standard of living that you're used to. The idea that a pilot can't put enough money away for retirement using a 401k or B-Fund is asinine.

401k "Hoax?" Where do you people come up with this crap?

 

[SWA/FO]

As long as it don't pass before November, I'm hopin' to get rid of someone over here....

You got that right, November 27th to be exact - at least over here at Southwest.

 

[Boeing747Driver]

Just finished reading the bill, as amended for the Age 65 provision. Items of note:

1. No one can return with seniority if they have already reached the age of 60 before the day the bill goes into affect. Already past 60? Tough luck, geezer.

2. No new medical standards, except that age 60+ pilots must maintain a 1st class medical with an examination every 6 months. No letting it lapse to 2nd class privileges if you're a copilot.

3. International ops require the other pilot to be under age 60. That should make for some interesting abrogations of seniority.

4. The new age limit is prohibited from being used as a basis for litigation. This protects all parties, including labor unions, from lawsuits related to the age limit.

5. Requires airlines to engage in negotiations with labor unions if the CBAs require changes to benefits or work rules as a result of the new age limit.

6. The GAO will make a report in 2 years on how the change has affected operations.



Thanks geezers. You've slowed seniority progression and kept furloughees at AMR on the street for even longer. Not to mention the loss in career earnings that most pilots will suffer because of this. Selfish bastards....

Come on PCL. This is what ALPA wanted and you are their best cheerleader. Am I seeing a change of attitude?

 

[Beetle007]

Sorry, you don't get to assume 500K 20 years from now.

Then you don't get to assume that investments will increase 6% a year. That is an assumption just like mine. Investments could just as easily decrease 6% a year for the next 15 years. People like to look at the past 30 years in America and assume our economy will sustain such growth. Our economy could just as easily go into the toilet and the stock market crash when all the baby boomer retirees start using their 401K (stocks) to pay for their retirement or the Chinese cash in their bonds.

Our goverment will have to intentionally devalue the dollar to pay for all the debt we have incurred and to pay for social security for the baby boomers. This will offset any gains made by investments.

As more people invest in stocks, your slice of the pie proportionaly becomes much smaller for every dollar you invest. People want to invest, but there are a limited number of invetments. This is what has artificially driven up stock prices for the past 20 years. Stock prices have greatly outpaced corporate earnings growth. People no longer invest for a percentage of the dividends (the original intent of investments), but only for appreciation of the stock price. When the baby boomers cash in, I don't think your 6% assumption will hold water.

 

[PCL_128]

Come on PCL. This is what ALPA wanted and you are their best cheerleader. Am I seeing a change of attitude?

This is not what ALPA wanted. This is what Prater wanted. Big difference. The EC and EB voted to amend policy for the exact reason you see here today: the rule was going to change with or without our support. Because of a change in policy, ALPA was able to lobby for the protections that made it into the final bill. The original proposal in Congress contained no protections from litigation, nothing to stop over-60 pilots from demanding a return with seniority, nothing to protect current medical standards, etc... Had ALPA not changed policy, then they would not have been able to work with guys like Oberstar to get these additions into the bill so we could have the minimal protections. I hate the change to the rule, but ALPA did the right thing in working within the system on this one. Had they stood on the sidelines and cried about it like the APA, then we could very well have seen a bunch of lawsuits from the geezers demanding to return at their previous seniority.

 

[PuffDriver]

Then you don't get to assume that investments will increase 6% a year. That is an assumption just like mine. Investments could just as easily decrease 6% a year for the next 15 years. People like to look at the past 30 years in America and assume our economy will sustain such growth. Our economy could just as easily go into the toilet and the stock market crash when all the baby boomer retirees start using their 401K (stocks) to pay for their retirement or the Chinese cash in their bonds.

Our goverment will have to intentionally devalue the dollar to pay for all the debt we have incurred and to pay for social security for the baby boomers. This will offset any gains made by investments.

As more people invest in stocks, your slice of the pie proportionaly becomes much smaller for every dollar you invest. People want to invest, but there are a limited number of invetments. This is what has artificially driven up stock prices for the past 20 years. Stock prices have greatly outpaced corporate earnings growth. People no longer invest for a percentage of the dividends (the original intent of investments), but only for appreciation of the stock price. When the baby boomers cash in, I don't think your 6% assumption will hold water.

You are out of your mind. There are guaranteed places out there for 6%. Hell, I have a 5.5% interest bearing account, and it would go to 5.75 the day I hit over 500K. Obviously you know nothing of investing.

Of course, I used the word guarantee, which nothing is. I will say this, however, if you can't make 6% interest on your money, then there IS NO aviation system in America--it will have to be that bad.

Either way, my logic is there and yours is not.

 

[DashTrash400]

Enjoy the extra five years, fellas...consider it our "atta-boy" for doing such a crackup job protecting scope so those of us not fortunate enough to be born in the 50's can fly for mainline someday.

[/bitter]

 

[Beetle007]

Puffdriver -

I agree that some pilots will be hurt by this. But it will help others (young and old).

You argue that your money is increasing 5.5% a year, but I think the value of the dollar is decreasing by more than that value and has been for at least the last 5 years. Just look at the U.S. Dollar compared to other currencies of the world. When the EURO was first introduced, it was a 1 for 1 with the dollar.

I look at the reality of what things cost that I actually purchase. If your annual expenses have increased less than 5% a year, then you are doing pretty well.

 

[PCL_128]

I agree that some pilots will be hurt by this. But it will help others (young and old).

Anyone that isn't already in the left seat at their career airline will be hurt by this.

I don't believe the government inflation rates. I look at the reality of what things cost that I actually purchase. If your annual expenses have increased less than 5% a year, then you are doing pretty well.

Do you even realize how the government calculates CPI numbers? It isn't some magic number they pull out of their collective ass. They actually have a small army of government employees all over the country that check prices on a continual basis of every product imaginable. The average increase in prices every month is calculated into the CPI figures. Figures are released for non-energy CPI and total CPI. The CPI is weighted by the average amount that an American family will spend on each category (ie. fuel, electricity, car, rent/mortgage, food, etc...). The figure is extremely accurate, and it isn't part of some vast conspiracy to make you believe that you're spending less than you actually are.

And to answer your question, I'd wager that I'm only spending 1%-2% more than I was 5 years ago since I'm not having to spend much money on some of the items that have contributed the most to the CPI increases: health care and education.

 

[PuffDriver]

Puffdriver -

I agree that some pilots will be hurt by this. But it will help others (young and old).

You argue that your money is increasing 5.5% a year, but I think the value of the dollar is decreasing by more than that value and has been for at least the last 5 years. Just look at the U.S. Dollar compared to other currencies of the world. When the EURO was first introduced, it was a 1 for 1 with the dollar.

I look at the reality of what things cost that I actually purchase. If your annual expenses have increased less than 5% a year, then you are doing pretty well.

No, I didn't say that I was making 5.5 a year on my money. I am making much more than that, in fact. What I said was that I could be making at least that in a crummy savings account. There are very safe vahicles in the 7% range. it was a small lesson from "compounding for dummies".

I suggest you take hold of your money, because if you think that airline pilots are going to be making 500K 20 years from now, you've got bigger problems than what you are going to do when your "gravy train" ends at 65.

It's pretty simple, age 65 will help those who are in the senior seats when the legiaslation is passed. Everyone else, it will hurt. By any other account, you are wrong.

 

[av8instyle]

crap.

Age 60 Update Senate passes HR 3074
The Senate passed HR 3074(Transportation and HUD appropriations) including the age 60 change amendment by a vote of 88-7.
Included in HR 3074 is Senate Amendment 2845 which is the Oberstar language to include ALPA's recommendations .
This bill passed the House previously.

I think it will go to the President for signing in the near future.
The 88-7 vote precludes a Presidential veto if I remember correctly.

Just informational in nature... don't shoot the messenger!

 

[Swaayze]

Maybe a stupid question, but did the House already pass this and the Senate vote was the last stop prior to W's desk? I thought they still had to hammer out details and agree on language from the 2 branches into a single document. Did they really work through this that quickly (1 week since they reconvened)?

I swear it seems my "career" has become such a joke (even before getting stuck as a regional FO for another 5ish years) that I should be pictured in the dictionary under "poor dumb bastard".

 

[waverunner]

Yipee! Another 5 years of radiation and emf exposure. What is the average American life expectancy again? 68? or 72?

 

[Andy Neill]

Maybe a stupid question, but did the House already pass this and the Senate vote was the last stop prior to W's desk? I thought they still had to hammer out details and agree on language from the 2 branches into a single document. Did they really work through this that quickly (1 week since they reconvened)?

The way I see it, HR 3074 was ammended from the version that was passed in the House. That will require that a conference committee of the two houses will gather to work out any differences. If the ammended version of the bill is changed in any way, both houses will have to vote on it again. If not, the house will have to vote on it again before going for Presidential signature.

 

[thor2j]

It still has to be implemented by the FAA. Should be 12-18 months knowing how they act. Also must hammer out language with the house.

Can't wait for Fosset to be found. Probably had a heart attack at a ripe old age of 63.

 

[Swaayze]

No delay in implementation if passed by congress is my understanding. Your timeline would only be accurate if it has to go through the NPRM process. We could easily see age 65 in place by Halloween '07 at this rate.

Thank for the reply Andy. That sounds in line with my very limited understanding of where things are now.

 

[PCL_128]

It still has to be implemented by the FAA. Should be 12-18 months knowing how they act. Also must hammer out language with the house.

I believe Andy Neill is correct that this has to go back for another vote in the house since the bill was amended by the Senate. However, if the bill passes, which I assume it will, there will not be any 18 month delay in implementation. The bill requires that the regulation be changed immediately upon the bill becoming effective. That means this could all become effective in less than two months.