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Mainly what squadron you're assigned to. When a conflict occurs, certain units are picked to accomplish the mission. If you're fortunate enough to be in that squadron, you'll probably see some action when the time comes....what determines your ability to be sent to actual combat?
You never know....
A regular board poster here (not me!) Shot down a Mirage as wingman in the Gulf War...on his first tour. Another friend, who was a WIC IP, waited 17 years until he was a Squadron CC to even get to fly in the container doing "combat" while maintaining no fly zones.
Those guys who choose "sissy" planes like transports in your UPT class may be in fact flying into harms way dodging SAMs and AAA regularly, while your "manly" fighter is circling the states doing Operation Noble Eagle Caps or going to Red Flag far from any real danger. The point is...you never know. You train to be ready, and ANY weapon system can find itself on the battlefield somewhere.
.....pretty much everyone except Trainers and C21s and that new 737-700 will be subject to combat flying.
Talk about the proverbial "golden BB!"Years ago, an NKC-135 crew reported having been "straddled" by debris while photographing re-entry vehicles in the South Pacific. No hits, or they might have become the only airplane ever shot down by an ICBM!
Actually you'd be surprised where "that new 737-700" has already been tasked to fly....let's just say defensive manuevers are being developed, test flown and validated....and defensive systems are being installed on many of the blue-n-whites.