As anyone at ACA right now will tell you, the upgrade times right now are hard to gauge. We have our first system bid coming out since well before Sept 11 and it should be interesting. Here are some times that im interpolating from the last award and what I hear other pilots would want to bid on the line are doing. I would expect the J41 to go around 12-18 months. FRJ will prob be somewhere just over 2 years. CVG going more junior than BOS for a change bc we're phasing out LGA in NOV and most of the guys there want to go to BOS. The CRJ I'd bet will go around 2-3 years for ORD and about 3-4 in IAD. Long story with this one: the co displaced around 60 Capts to ORD from IAD and for a year they have first right of return to IAD. This means that any vacancy for IAD CRJ can be awarded to one of these folks first even if theyre junior to you.
Keep in mind 3 things: these are just estimates of what ive seen and heard based on what people i know are going to bid and should be able to hold based off the last award and two, the times Ive given are to hold an award, not necessarily when you will be going to class. The time from being able to hold the vacancy and going to class may be as much as 6 months. Third, the results of this bid (time to upgrade) will be skewed as well on this bid bc its been such a long time since we had a master bid. When we finally get things back on a regular timeline youll have a much more accurate gauge.
Good luck. I know its a tough decision.
ps there have been a fair amt of eagle furloughees come over so you may see a familiar face or two if you sign on.