AA: Furloughs? A plan? Retirements?

[AAflyer]

Also if a bunch of guys punch out early, then the B-fund unit value will collapse leaving the people still on the property with nothing. Pretty scary.

Uhhhhh no again,

Guys "punching" out have nothing to do with the B fund "VALUE", that is dependent upon the market and where the money is invested. The B value just rose again recently.


So to review, The lump sum is still an option, and they have not announced any furloughs. IN light of current manning, up coming 737 deliveries, and potential retirements many do not think they will furlough.

Could they, sure. If oil hits $200 you can be "guaranteed" this entire industry will collapse!

WIshing the best for all of us.

AAflyer

 

[Andy]

So to review, The lump sum is still an option, and they have not announced any furloughs. IN light of current manning, up coming 737 deliveries, and potential retirements many do not think they will furlough.

Could they, sure. If oil hits $200 you can be "guaranteed" this entire industry will collapse!

AAflyer

About the only airline that won't be furloughing is Southwest. Until those planes are on the ramp, I wouldn't count on them - even then, you could easily be parking more aircraft than are being delivered.
Oil prices will become less relevent as the economy continues to tank. This industry will look completely different by 2010.

 

[highflying]

Why on earth are not more senior guys at AA taking there money and running? I would think it would be a no brainer.

 

[waveflyer]

that was my question too-- anyone in contact w/ a 777 captain that didn't choose the retirement option earlier this year? What is their logic?

 

[AAflyer]

About the only airline that won't be furloughing is Southwest. Until those planes are on the ramp, I wouldn't count on them - even then, you could easily be parking more aircraft than are being delivered.
Oil prices will become less relevent as the economy continues to tank. This industry will look completely different by 2010.

I do not count on anything Andy, however merely showing what the "current" situation is and how it relates to furloughs here.

I have mentioned before we need to replace the S80, and fuel cost savings alone almost covers the lease.

Yes, the planes could easily easily be replaced while parking more S80s.

UAL could be out of business this time next year. Like I said Andy, merely throwing out what is currently being looked at. Plans can change almost daily in this environment.

In case you missed it the first time, I wish us all well, we are going to need a serious miracle soon.

AAflyer

 

[AAflyer]

Why on earth are not more senior guys at AA taking there money and running? I would think it would be a no brainer.

Because until BK is imminent why punch out? The B fund unit value just moved north again.

Many of these pilots are re-evaluating monthly what to do. You can be certain if things get worse and BK is imminent you are going to see anywhere from 1500-2000 guys bail out overnight like DAL had a few years back.


IMHO

AAflyer

 

[SFR]

The industry is not in that bad of shape. We are making tons of money!!!! We are just using more than we make!

 

[Andy]

UAL could be out of business this time next year.

... and I could hit the Powerball jackpot.
That wasn't the subject at hand, but if it makes you feel better to throw that one on the table, have at it.

I wish that I could have a buck for every post since 911 that had UAL going out of business in (fill in the blank) months. You guys remind me of the 'Bring out your dead' scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

 

[Andy]

The industry is not in that bad of shape. We are making tons of money!!!! We are just using more than we make!

You sound just like Lawrence Yun from the NAR.
You too could have a bright future in the PR world. Have you considered applying to the Baghdad Bob School of Spin?
Morals and ethics are disqualifying handicaps; get rid of them before considering a career in the business.


Edit: For those not familiar with Lawrence Yun, here's a recent article: http://www.realtor.org/research/reinsights/forecast
Recent home sales: http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/8252378049d4dfd4a1a4e10ae92e22c9/EHS052308.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=8252378049d4dfd4a1a4e10ae92e22c9

 

[CitationLover]

The industry is not in that bad of shape. We are making tons of money!!!! We are just using more than we make!

is that patrick ewings take on the airline industry?

 

[AAflyer]

... and I could hit the Powerball jackpot.
That wasn't the subject at hand, but if it makes you feel better to throw that one on the table, have at it.

I wish that I could have a buck for every post since 911 that had UAL going out of business in (fill in the blank) months. You guys remind me of the 'Bring out your dead' scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

You missed it completely.... I take your comments about picking up 737s about as much as you listen to all the idiots on here with UAL doom and gloom.

In other words what happens, happens.

I merely pointed out current manning and what the current game plan is..

Of course things are subject to change So is everything in this world. Do you get that?

Sticking by my former posts,

AAflyer

P.S. Andy, you for the most part have had very professional and factual posts, not sure where the attitude is coming from? However if we park the 80s and take no 737s, you can tell me "I told you so"

 

[Andy]

P.S. Andy, you for the most part have had very professional and factual posts, not sure where the attitude is coming from? However if we park the 80s and take no 737s, you can tell me "I told you so"

What's the delivery dates on the 73s? There comes a certain point where you can't turn them off without a huge penalty.
I'm pretty sure that your first deliveries are early 2009, so I doubt that you'd see the first ones turned off. As to the ratio of 80s parked vs 73s delivered, that's another matter.

As for AMR furloughing, if there's a mass exodus for the door ala Delta, that would obviously help alleviate furloughs.

 

[Wingman10]

I understand they MAY take delivery of three (3) 73's a month starting in Jan 09. Total for 2009 may be 34 and perhaps( a very big perhaps of 36 in 2010), unfortunately replacing the aging S80 fleet on a 2 73 for every one S80 rate.
Like others have posted, they feel that even with a lease rate the 73's are a better deal with the price of oil north of $100 a barrell.

IMO, they will furlough starting in the mid to late fall, just how deep they go this round is anybody's guess.

I am one that may get furloughed so this is not good news at all.


Best of Luck to everyone.
Cheers

 

[aa73]

I am one that may get furloughed so this is not good news at all.


Best of Luck to everyone.
Cheers

Ditto Wingman... hey could you hook me up if you go back to your corporate gig?

How's life in Bah-ston?

73

 

[Wingman10]

Apparently, during yesterdays 04 Jun recall class they announced that they DO NOT plan to defer any of the oncoming 73's. So if that is the case then AA should begin accepting new 73's at a rate of 3 per month starting in Jan 08.
The big questions still remain:
1) retirement #'s
2) MLOA returnees
3) Quickness of the Bus and S80 reductions
4) the big concern being
the price of oil.

So with that in mind it should be an interesting ride over the next few months.

The information that I have been given is that they may start the flying schedule reduction in early Sep.

How long that goes on for and how many pilot's are going to be affected, only time will tell.

Best of luck

JP what say you?