35% of current pilots will retire in 10

[daddysquared]

I know a lot of flight schools are pushing this figure around; 35% of all current pilots will retire over the next 10 years. How much truth is there to that statement?

 

[GoABX]

As a rough number it probably is not too far off. If you take a mathematical approach and assume retirements are linear, then if the average career is about 30 years approximately 3.3% of the pilot force will retire per year.

Obviously, retirements are not linear. So if you look at major hiring booms and then subtract 25-30 years (avg career) you usually will note major events, such as wars ending and pilots leaving the military. WW2 (minor) / Vietnam (major). You can also use this as a forecasting tool. Take a past hiring boom add 25-30 years to it and you can project the next hiring boom.

Obviously the economy plays a role, but the Vietnam spike created a self-fulfilling prophesy as big chunks of pilots need to be replaced. Over time this phenomenon will dampen in amplitude as pilots over 30 years old are hired and the number of 'early retirements' fluxuates due to medical and stock market returns.

 

[countbat]

Retired from what? If they don't have jobs how do you expect them to retire? Maybe out of the way. 35 % of pilots are allready retired for being furloughed.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Or try this-- it may take 10 years to return to service about 10-20% of those currently junior furloughed pilots.

 

[Counselair]

Daddysquared = Kit Darby Hmmmmmm.....

Where do I send the check???

 

[Citrus Jockey]

I don't know if 35% of the Major Airline pilots will retire in the next 10 years but lets just say that is a factual statement for the sake of this argument. It is probably true that most retirements in the next ten years will come from the ranks of the major Airlines although the nationals will contribute to some of this. AirTran will retire 30% of its 800 pilots in the next ten years. But I digress back to the original argument. The 11 or so major airlines have a total of of between 40-45,000 ACTIVE pilots(not furloughed). 35% of that number is approximately 15,000 pilots. Last I heard, before the last announcement by AA and United that they will furlough 2,500 and 1,000 more respectively, there were approximately 8,000 pilots on furlough. Add another 3,500 from AA and UAL and another 1000 for good measure and you can see how these retirements will be taken care of. The furloughed pilots. It is safe to say that the next hiring surge in this industry will be fueled by the pilots that are furloughed.

This is not like the previous downturns in this industry, this is much worse. There has never been this many pilots furloughed in terms of numbers and as a percentage of active pilots. It used to be said that if you had 10% of the seniority list below you you were safe from furlough. Well that number has increased to 20-25%. It is true that some furloughees won't go back when recalled but with more productive work rules airlines will also use retirements to further shrink the seniority lists without the need to furlough as many pilots.

 

[General Lee]

I read on another forum (a Dalpa forum) that we had something like 1500 or so pilots over the age of 55. That means quite a bit will leave within the next 5 years--and hopefully that is good of or furloughees.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[rtseatrich]

I think someone made a typo

Maybe the thread should be 35% of current pilots will be furloughed in 10 years.

Major Furloughee

 

[F18-FDX]

That may be closer to the truth, unfortunately.

Back to the original post - consider the source. Yes, the fact may be true, but what the flight schools and Kit Darby won't tout is the fact that at least that number (or darn close) are or will be furloughed, hence you have a market already flooded with extremely qualified pilots. As was posted earlier, this doesn't seem to be the typical "cyclical" downturn.

 

[daddysquared]

Got it. Bleak certainly would be understating the health (or lack thereof) of the industry. Who the he11 is Kip Darby?

 

[daddysquared]

Oops, sorry, Kit.

 

[Counselair]

Kit is a bottom feeder that makes money (even more than his UAL Captain paycheck) telling flight instructors how they are gonna be Major Airline pilots any day now, if they pay him for his services. Sorry for the run on sentence. BTW it wasn't a shot at you, just a spitball from the bleachers aimed at Kit. Hopefully there was no collateral damage.

 

[daddysquared]

No, no worrries. I do appreciate the insight. Obviously, I'm new to a whole lot of this stuff. All the info that you senior guys afford us junior juniors is outstanding. Although it doesn't deter me personally, it does give me a pretty good idea of what to expect when the search for employment in this ravished industry. Now, if someone could just get this spitwad of the middle of my back, I just ................ can't ................... seem ................ to ................. reach.............ah, got it.

 

[daddysquared]

Uh, i mean, search for employment commences. Must be late.

 

[corpguy]

kit darby and his evil henchmen

Let's start a Kit Darby bashing thread.....

For once, we all may be in agreement on something!!

 

[av8instyle]

I must confess ignorance here...

I gotta know, what's with the Kit Darby bashing?
I used Air Inc products quite a bit and even went to a job fair or two. I found the info they provided very informative and useful. I even walked away from a job fair with two interviews for Captain positions with two large commuters. I found the service to be quite useful. I guess I would have done it again.
Anyway, the guy's running the business to make money.
So I gotta know...why all the hostilities?

 

[DesertFalcon]

I think someone made a typo

Maybe the thread should be 35% of current pilots will be furloughed in 10 years.

Major Furloughee

I think he said; 35% of the pilots will retire at the age of 10?

 

[contrail777]

Back to being serious...

Don't forget all the commuter guys logging time during the 10 years. After the furlough guys come back, there will be tons of commuter guys with tons of time to be in line to be hired if there is any hiring at all in ten years. I could see major airlines having a 10,000 hr. minimum - not sure if I want that statement to be sarcastic or serious.

Not good for guys just starting out...

 

[sfomarc]

I dont want to be a pessimist or break anyones bubble but you might want to take this into account.

Do you think with US Air pilots losing their pension, all the majors taking a pay cut, lots of guys on the street that ALPA and the majors might change their tune about Age 60?

Here at SWA we just voted on whether to spend money on lobbying congress for the apeal of Age 60. I for one am not for it for many reasons mostly because of the uncertainty of the unknowns.

My guess is that anyone who is in their 30's will see Age 60 go away well before they have to retire.

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

Kit Darby..

Mr Darby has for the most part, IMHO misrepresented the true status of the airline business for years in order to sell his brand of snake oil..

Pictures of smiling foreign nationals who have paid for both his services as well as the job he "helped" them find abounded in every flight training or flying magazine for years..

If Mr Darbys predictions had been even close to correct we all would be seeing adds in the Wall Street Journal and NY Times for airline pilots...

Perhapes one of the funniest things that has ever happened to me was when Midway/JI went out of business...

The only thing ALPA did for me was send me the instructions on how to apply online for NC unemployment and the 800 # for Mr Darbys services...

I am in no way bitter..I just have this little problem with people who make a living off of telling half truths or in some cases completely misrepresenting the facts..

Come to think of it...I think I know of a job opening that would be just perfect for Mr Darby..I hear that the Iraqi goverment has an opening in the Information Ministry..
You know..
The guy that keeps telling the world that victory is at hand and that there are no American troops in Baghdad...Perfect..


And as for ALPA....

Dont get me started..


Mike