I hate to say it, but I believe Air Wisconsin will be the first for the following reason:
When a company is sinking, the first thing management does on the way down is throw out every line to secure more money for their pockets. Their mgnt. set a precidence in the industry with regards to concessionary contracts in terms of duration (8 yrs),
pay, and benefits. Their mgnt revealed to what extent an entire group could be manipulated.
Their precarious current status with UAL, for which it is soley reliant for overall success, has forced the bean counters to become creative without regard to pride, tradition, standards,etc.
They used the Mesa contract as an cornerstone for their own, so it will be predictable they'll use PFT or some such method to again cut costs. And the 1500/500 mins...those unfortunately are set by mgnt, not the general concensus.
I predicted their current situation three years ago and was told by the majority of their pilots that they were UAL's favorite, that they would get preferencial treatment....and they did...right up the a$$.