$150 per barrel, your opinion of the impact.

[some_dude]

For a completely different view on the subject:

http://www2.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Citizenship/Corp_citizenship_energy_outlook.asp

Be sure to scroll down about halfway. The first half is all about demand, the second is about supply.

Incidentally, the Exxon-Mobil chart does not show worldwide oil production peaking even by 2030. They do point out that "non-OPEC" production will peak in the next 10 years or so. Not world wide oil production, however.

 

[some_dude]

A few key quotes.

The absolute level of conventional oil-in-place is not precisely knowable, but is estimated to be between six and eight trillion barrels.

Current estimates of extra-heavy oil and oil sands are over four trillion barrels in-place. This estimate is expected to increase as interest in these particular resources grows. These resources are more highly concentrated than conventional oil, with large deposits in Canada, Venezuela, Russia and the Caspian region. With recovery factors in the 20-25% range, 800 billion to one trillion barrels may ultimately be produced –- an amount equivalent to the total of all conventional oil produced to date.

Shale oil, another very large type of frontier resource, has not received much attention since the 1970s and '80s during the time of the oil price shocks. In-place oil shale deposits are estimated to be in excess of three trillion barrels.

 

[FN FAL]

Well, fear can be used as a form of control. When "bad" things are about to happen, many will gladly exchange their rights for "security".

Yup, I just read that domestic violence is down to half. Combine that with the FBI stats that violent crime has dropped to a post WWII low during the last 12 years and I can see where there will be the need for the media to create new boogie men to sell papers...or Cable Television "Mock-u-mentrys"...like "Oil Storm", "Super Volcano", "Super Tsunami", "Super Earth Quake", "Super Drought", and on and on...

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Or the need for a certain president to sell America on the fear of a WMD attack on American soil so they can justify attacking a Middle-Eastern country.

Or the need of a certain presidential candidate to sell America on the fear of a terrorist attack so they can win the election. People in little towns in America's heartland were terrified of getting hit by terrorists.

I don't think blowing up the airport in Paducah, KY is high on Al-Quaida's list.

Cliff
HEF

 

[FN FAL]

I don't think blowing up the airport in Paducah, KY is high on Al-Quaida's list.

Nor would Owl-Kay-duh target OWB, either. I doubt their beef is with municipal airports that serve communities comprised mostly of unwed mothers.

 

[jetflyer]

ATPCliff,

You know a lot about the peak oil problem and more people would be wise to listen to you. I've done research like mad this last month on the problem. It is astonishing that we as a WORLD have let ourselves get into the predicament we're in. The world is in for a lot of changes these next ten years. IT WILL BE A LONG EMERGENCY.

A lot of people have no idea what is about to happen. I too am one of those "NUTS" switching my money to gold, foreign currencies, and energy mutual funds.

Most people will bury their heads in the sand and be in denial for quite a while. You see that from most of the people on here.

You guys refuse to do research, but just DENY that your way of living will change. It's understandable. I don't blame any of you. It's natural.

Eventually the denial won't do you any good though,

Jet
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER---
YOU SHOULD ALL READ THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES and DO YOUR OWN FOLLOWUP RESEARCH:
1)Website once again for introduction:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426
and
2)Website about the problems we face:
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
3)A recent Associated press article:
http://home.peoplepc.com/psp/newsstory.asp?cat=news&referrer=welcome&id=20050528/4297ecc0_3421_1334520050528-950973917
4)CHATGROUP devoted to PEAK OIL PROBLEMS:
www.peakoil.com

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

FN FAL:
Thanx 4 showing me how to spell Owlkayduh. I thought I might have misspelled it.

Cliff
HEF

PS-C, U kan eevun lurn speling on the inturnet. My wif thot it was just 4 durty pikturs!

 

[LAXSaabdude]

As long as we've got a government full of rich dudes that own lots of stock in oil companies, alternative energy sources are not going to happen in the US.

99% True. Alternative energy will happen, but only when those same rich dudes ensure that the oil companies they are invested in recieve all of the taxpayer-funded R&D money to develop alternative energy. Exxon ethanol, anyone?

LAXSaabdude.

 

[some_dude]

While you are doing research, here is another website you might want to check out:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

Oh, and keep in mind that none of these sites (either the peak oil sites or the DOE site) take into account "nontraditional" sources of oil-- oil sands and oil shale. Those sources are vast and are economical at $35/barrel.

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
YOU SHOULD ALL READ THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES and DO YOUR OWN FOLLOWUP RESEARCH:

 

[Falcon4.0]

Hi!

THere's lots of oil shale and tar sands in Canada. Unfortunately, with current techology, we have to burn a lot of natural gas to get the oil out of those resources, and the supply of natural gas will peak soon after the supplly of oil peaks. I read that we don't have enough natural gas to get the oil out of those resources in Canada.

Cliff
YIP

 

[Cobra]

Thing is, people are freaking out over the 55+/barrel price now. Inflation adjusted, the late 70's, early 80's oil crisis, oil was just around $90/barrel. I'd say that's the point you'd start seeing an impact. Oil prices have increased over 10% the last few weeks, yet gasoline prices have stayed relatively stable. Also, you are paying $90/barrel for gasoline already as is if you use the average US regular price of @2.20 or so. I don't think it will hit 150 anytime soon, and I doubt in 5 years.

The inflationary argument cracks me up. Inflation means little to the average American citizen who rents their residence and lives on middle class income. I think the term is just an excuse to prevent another proposition 13 type revolt/anarchy. In this case, inflation rhetoric via the energy companies that gets passed down from the politicos to the media down to the final audience you and me.

In laymen's terms the mantra goes like this: "See ______ (insert oil company name here), we really aren't gouging you-the consumer because when you compare the inflationary rate with the cost of hydrocarbons back in 1970 blah, blah, blah you are actually paying less than....So you see blah, blah.

Cheers,
G



G

 

[some_dude]

Maybe you could cite a source for this from government or industry?

I will (this is a pdf file), called "Unconventional Oil: Filling the Gap or Flooding the Market" from the DOE:

http://www.firstgov.gov/fgsearch/re...//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/conf/pdf/lynch.pdf

As the above document points out, the price/barrel of oil derived from tar sands is steadily falling. At the moment, oil shale is not competitive, but in 10 years or so, it could be.

And use a little common sense! If it required more energy to extract the oil from shale or tar sands, no one would do it, would they? The extraction process requires heat, which has to come from somewhere. My understanding is that the mining process releases quite a bit of natural gas as a byproduct, which is then used as a source of heat.

It is true that extracting oil from tar sands and oil shale is not as efficient as pumping liquid oil out of the ground. This is why it is more expensive.

Hi!

THere's lots of oil shale and tar sands in Canada. Unfortunately, with current techology, we have to burn a lot of natural gas to get the oil out of those resources, and the supply of natural gas will peak soon after the supplly of oil peaks. I read that we don't have enough natural gas to get the oil out of those resources in Canada.

Cliff
YIP