Delta cutting International flights 3%

[General Lee]

Honestly....I think it has a lot to do with the pilot shortage. They can barely cover the schedule today while hiring 115 a month and we haven't started the 3000 retirements yet.

I think all the airlines are worried where they are going to get the crews.

Uhhhh, I think you meant 5,000 retirements Bill. But, I'm sure DL will pick up plenty of Corndogs, especially those fleeing certain stagnation and lack of variety.


From APC:


Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 56
2014 - 121
2015 - 169
2016 - 225
2017 - 286
2018 - 415
2019 - 513
2020 - 602
2021 - 789
2022 - 851
2023 - 809
2024 - 805
2025 - 713
2026 - 610
2027 - 514


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[WMUSIGPI]

That was the point I was trying to make gentlemen. Most airlines seem to be showing abnormally large profit margins which usually trickles down to front line employees in many tangible ways. Obviously profit sharing has been a bonus that has been enjoyed by those employees which are getting it, but robust profits generally tend to show other ancillary gains. So far in this latest surge of profitability it seems very little has been done with the extra gains other than stockpiling profits. In the past large profits were very often used to fuel growth in the business that is producing record margins.

Is capacity discipline the new normal in this new consolidated field? Are the markets tapped out as the US and world economies have not shown the robust growth that the airlines have enjoyed recently?

This is the new norm in America. It is a large part of why the middle class is in rapid decline. Historically business would reinvest profits to grow the company and reward the producers of the profit (the workers). Now in today's America, that money is instead being sent to senior management and investors in the form of increased dividends, stock buybacks, and other types of compensations or simply sat on as additional cash on hand. Meanwhile the average wage and benefits paid to the producers (the middle class) has basically stagnated over the last 20 years, and when compared with the continual creep of inflation, has actually caused most Americans to actually be earning less. This is another way to redistribute the wealth to a small minority at the top, but will eventually fail as eventually there will not be enough people making enough to keep the economy moving along. It has happened in other "empires" and is happening right now in America. At a minimum wages and benefits must keep up with inflation. If not there will be a collapse of the economy.

 

[Green]

It will be very hard. But everything has a cycle in aviation and the ME carriers can very easily go the other way. Easy come, easy go. If the Emir watches his $ do anything less than spectacular, he'll send into other industries. (Frankly, should have done tech or medicine) He may be forced to do that if the alpa effort succeeds. 380s may not have much of a secondary market value... So if you're emirates and you can't fly your shiny new subsidized jets anywhere... And you can't sell half of them... Hmmmm. Things can change very fast

I don't think most people in the west really understand the driving force behind Emirates and Etihad. They were not conceived to be money making businesses. The fact that they do make money is a nice bonus. But the airlines are designed to put the UAE on the world map. Particularly Dubai which does not have significant oil revenues and needs to reinvent itself. The idea was to transform the city into a tourist, banking, and trading hub. What better way to market your city than to have hundreds of millions transit your hub and see your planes in every corner of the globe? Think of them more like public infrastructure. The US didn't make the public freeway system to be a money maker.

With respect to Emirates Airline it is THE main driver of the Dubai economy. Something like 30% of the jobs in Dubai are directly related to EK. When the USA wants to stimulate the economy they print money and give it to bankers who loan it to their hedge fund buddies who put a little more air in the bubble. In the UAE they just buy more jets. The problem is that the Western Airlines cannot compete with a company who has the weakest labor laws to worry about and a government supporting it on every level.

 

[Flopgut]

I don't think most people in the west really understand the driving force behind Emirates and Etihad. They were not conceived to be money making businesses. The fact that they do make money is a nice bonus. But the airlines are designed to put the UAE on the world map.

I think there is also a mistake made by people who think just being American means you lack a world view. It is not that hard to see what the ME3 are doing. They don't have the intellectual base or discipline to go after technology (like Argentina and Chile) or medicine (Panama). They've got petro $ and no problem exploiting human resources. So they figure they'll black out the sun with wide bodies. Well, sometimes big, successful airlines change directions. United was a Dow component, a $100+ stock and enormously successful in the late 90s. And they did it without human rights violations and petro $. Hard work and intellect they were not short on, and it still changed. As bad as it's got here I'm still glad my future isn't hitched to what goes on around the ME3. Let me put it this way: It may not be the U.S. Airlines that eventually prevail, but it won't be the ME3 either. It will eventually become too much effort and require too much smarts for the oil patch to run successful long term.

 

[Flopgut]

Honestly....I think it has a lot to do with the pilot shortage. They can barely cover the schedule today while hiring 115 a month and we haven't started the 3000 retirements yet.

I think all the airlines are worried where they are going to get the crews.

I think they've got in the back of their mind the idea that retirement age might happen again. (Maybe even go away?) And that maybe we're close to a big change in the way we fly, like partially unmanned? Idk.

 

[General Lee]

I think they've got in the back of their mind the idea that retirement age might happen again. (Maybe even go away?) And that maybe we're close to a big change in the way we fly, like partially unmanned? Idk.

No, the airlines want younger pilots, not older ones that need more sick time, vacation, and bid min schedule or drop trips because they are tired. Not every over age 65 pilot is like that maybe, but I bet the vast majority wouldn't be there if they didn't have ex wives etc.

In Canada pilots can fly to 70 now, but at 65 they have two options if their company has them (like Air Canada): narrowbody FO or INTL cruise officer that doesn't takeoff or land. The latter is very senior because most of the ex Captains just left INTL widebody flying in the left seat, and don't want to do multiple leg days on a narrowbody. The only good thing about that new rule, it preserves upgrades. At 65, they are kicked out of the left seat. And, ALPA in Canada had to approve it since the Govt enacted that rule.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[SWA Bubba]

Uhhhh, I think you meant 5,000 retirements Bill. But, I'm sure DL will pick up plenty of Corndogs, especially those fleeing certain stagnation and lack of variety.


From APC:


Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 56
2014 - 121
2015 - 169
2016 - 225
2017 - 286
2018 - 415
2019 - 513
2020 - 602
2021 - 789
2022 - 851
2023 - 809
2024 - 805
2025 - 713
2026 - 610
2027 - 514


Bye Bye---General Lee

So, are you actually required to slam Southwest with every post (even when a thread has jack-all to do with SWA), or is it just force of habit?

Just curious.

Bubba

 

[Flopgut]

No, the airlines want younger pilots, not older ones that need more sick time, vacation, and bid min schedule or drop trips because they are tired. Not every over age 65 pilot is like that maybe, but I bet the vast majority wouldn't be there if they didn't have ex wives etc

Yeah I could be wrong on that. It does seem like they're waiting way too long to get pilots hired. UAL staffing is woefully low and we're going to have another bad summer (or real good, depending on how you look at it$)

 

[Flopgut]

So, are you actually required to slam Southwest with every post (even when a thread has jack-all to do with SWA), or is it just force of habit?

Just curious.

Bubba

Why does an accurate portrayal of the situation have to be a "slam"? 20+ year upgrade into 1 aircraft type is not fun

 

[redflyer65]

But, I'm sure DL will pick up plenty of Corndogs, especially those fleeing certain stagnation and lack of variety.




Bye Bye---General Lee

Because douch hole leads with this ^^^^^^

I hope Delta can grow again at some point. Meanwhile SW is going to increase 6% year over year. Which is greater than minus 3%.


Genny just can't help herself. The epitome of gutting a website she is.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Meanwhile SW is going to increase 6% year over year. Which is greater than minus 3%.

What is going to be increasing at SW 6% YOY?

GK and the boards performance bonuses, ASM's due to the "game changers", or maybe it's the level of anger by the work groups?

 

[General Lee]

What is going to be increasing at SW 6% YOY?

GK and the boards performance bonuses, ASM's due to the "game changers", or maybe it's the level of anger by the work groups?

Ohhhhh Snap! And Dreadflyer's response is......



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Because douch hole leads with this ^^^^^^

I hope Delta can grow again at some point. Meanwhile SW is going to increase 6% year over year. Which is greater than minus 3%.


Genny just can't help herself. The epitome of gutting a website she is.

Truth hurts. A newhire at your airline will stagnate for years due to fewer retirements compared to the Big3. Add one plane type and multiple leg days, and that means less variety.

But, your pay is great, right now. Good for you Dread.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[SIG600]

Because douch hole leads with this ^^^^^^

I hope Delta can grow again at some point. Meanwhile SW is going to increase 6% year over year. Which is greater than minus 3%.


Genny just can't help herself. The epitome of gutting a website she is.

Maybe they can grow you a contract.

 

[NEDude]

I am having a hard time understanding why the ME carriers are such a threat to the U.S. carriers. Unless I am flying to the ME or perhaps India, flying on one of those carriers will take me a long way out of the way. It makes no sense to fly on a ME carrier from the States to Europe or to the Far East.

Even living in Europe now and regularly traveling to China, even if the costs are slightly less, I cannot justify the additional 6-10 hours it takes to stop in Doha, Dubai or Abu Dhabi. SAS, Lufthansa, KLM, Swiss and Finnair are all far more convenient for my travel to China than Qatar, Emirates and Etihad are.

Are there really that many people who are travelling just to those three cities in the ME, or are that many people really willing to travel 6-10 hours out of their way to save 50-200 dollars?