Alaska pilots: who would you prefer buy you?

[Ocity]

This Alaska Pilot wants to be purchased by *NOBODY*.

 

[SWA Bubba]

This Southwest pilot would consider being purchased by a rich, single, smokin' hot nymphomaniac.

Jus' sayin'...

Bubba

 

[igneousy2]

Even when the CEO controls the money side of the equation? Good luck with that, especially when there's a large difference in contracts.



So back to the original question. Who's in play.

Delta? I don't think they would get past the DOJ on the size.
AA/US? The same, especially since they aren't close to completing theirs.
UA/CAL? A mix of both of the above.
HAL? Not sure that works too well together with two very specific regions.

Pretty much leaves Southwest.

What are the other ideas out there?

How do you figure DL, AA/US, or UA/CAL + AS would be too large...but not AS+SWA???

Alaska does not dominate any market...even in SEA, we don't dominate to the same level that Delta dominates ATL, AA dominates DFW or US dominates CLT.

Alaska wants to be independent, so AS isn't going to go out and buy anybody. They have their "growth" plan locked in for the next decade, assuring the current managements job-security for the forseable future so that requires somebody to buy AS.

HA, Republic, Mesa, Skywest, forget it - AS would be too big a prey.

SWA - If there is any DOJ justification to intervene, I think it lies with SWA. That being said, I think SWA is not going to be interested in acquiring anyone for a very long time.

AA/US - The west coast is the backwater of the US as far as AA is concerned and I think they are perfectly happy sub-contracting the flying out to AS.

JBLU - I think it would be a great match up if it were a merger but I don't think JBLU is big enough to do it without the cooperation of AS management.

UAL/CAL - I think this is a very good possibility since they don't have anything to lose. In the 90's, everybody was sure that the big merger was going to be NWA/CAL for the same reasons that the popular prediction is DAL/AS today.

DAL/AS - I think it's still the most likely for reasons that have already been discussed.

 

[freightdogfred]

Those are the two entities that I see as well. I also agree with GL that DL/AS would have absolutely zero problem passing both DOJ/DOT scrutiny. As was already stated, even after those two got together they would still be smaller than the combined AA/US combination. I do see either WN or DL going after AS in the next five years though, although I would say its a coin flip as to which Airline AS would decide to hookup with.

Let's see... 1) 2 ALPA carriers, merging an SLI with an actual arbitrator making the decision.
or
2) A force fed SLI from a CEO, after expressly consenting to arbitration.

I'm sure the Alaska MEC won't have any trubble picking a side.

 

[Mea25000]

In my opinion UAL has the best route structure of all the big three. Check back in 7 years, I think their layout will have them dominating air travel in our country. Well by dominating I mean they will be the airline AA and DAL will be chasing and trying to emulate.
Independence would be great but if not I think the airline to be at is UAL

 

[Mamma]

The question is...who has $4.5-$5.0 billion sitting around to buy 120 planes? Alaska is very expensive right now.

 

[Flyby1206]

The question is...who has $4.5-$5.0 billion sitting around to buy 120 planes? Alaska is very expensive right now.

Who uses cash to merge airlines? It would be an all stock deal no doubt.

 

[waveflyer]

In my opinion UAL has the best route structure of all the big three. Check back in 7 years, I think their layout will have them dominating air travel in our country. Well by dominating I mean they will be the airline AA and DAL will be chasing and trying to emulate.
Independence would be great but if not I think the airline to be at is UAL

Ah, the dreams of what united has been and SHOULD be.

That's why the collective management of united has been so sad-
So much potential for greatness, but they toil in spite of themself

 

[be-400xpdriver]

Great Lakes!!

 

[Flopgut]

In my opinion UAL has the best route structure of all the big three. Check back in 7 years, I think their layout will have them dominating air travel in our country. Well by dominating I mean they will be the airline AA and DAL will be chasing and trying to emulate.
Independence would be great but if not I think the airline to be at is UAL

I'm former Continental now merging into UAL... Something is a miss at ole UAL. It's hard to see from the outside, but this is not just bad management. The agents, flight attendants, and to a somewhat lesser extent the pilots, are all a big part of the very big problem UAL has. UAL employees just walk around in a pissed off haze with no real idea what they are doing. The problem goes way back; ESOP was an attempt to break this, and it did not work. The ownership aspect of ESOP was lost on them and instead of taking care of their company, they squeezed all the "golden eggs".

 

[SWA Bubba]

Let's see...

1) 2 ALPA carriers, merging an SLI with an actual arbitrator making the decision.
or
2) A force fed SLI from a CEO, after expressly consenting to arbitration.

I'm sure the Alaska MEC won't have any trubble picking a side.

Good point, because option 1, exactly how you stated it, worked out soooo well for US Air and America West, didn't it?

Bubba

 

[27 driver]

Good point, because option 1, exactly how you stated it, worked out soooo well for US Air and America West, didn't it?

Bubba

You think option 2 will be better. Just wait until this is all said and done. Most if not all RSW fo's will be stagnant and the ones who grabbed the captain seats will get bounced from base to base as the AAI guys re-upgrade. The only way option one wouldn't be better would be if you guys pulled a US AIR. I'm not predicting how the SLI would have turned out in arbitration but I bet there would be less animosity.

 

[SWA Bubba]

You think option 2 will be better. Just wait until this is all said and done. Most if not all RSW fo's will be stagnant and the ones who grabbed the captain seats will get bounced from base to base as the AAI guys re-upgrade. The only way option one wouldn't be better would be if you guys pulled a US AIR. I'm not predicting how the SLI would have turned out in arbitration but I bet there would be less animosity.

Hey, all -I- said was that option 1, in the USAir/AWA case, turned into the biggest, ugliest, nastiest, worst-for-all-pilots in the entire country, cluster frack. And a bad example for other unions to act in the future. True enough?

Your statement that option 1 would've been better unless "[SWAPA] pulled a USAir" is an opinion, and one not shared by all. For one thing, AirTran ALPA had the exact same potential to "pull a USAir" as anyone else (if it had got that far). Some people (apparently including Gary Kelly) believe that AALPA was the party that was somewhat disingenuous in the negotiations, by stalling and then refusing to send out the first agreement for a vote, in an attempt to purposely run out the negotiation clock, to force an outcome that they thought would yield better results for them. You can't blame SWAPA for that.

Bubba

 

[27 driver]

Hey, all -I- said was that option 1, in the USAir/AWA case, turned into the biggest, ugliest, nastiest, worst-for-all-pilots in the entire country, cluster frack. And a bad example for other unions to act in the future. True enough?

Your statement that option 1 would've been better unless "[SWAPA] pulled a USAir" is an opinion, and one not shared by all. For one thing, AirTran ALPA had the exact same potential to "pull a USAir" as anyone else (if it had got that far). Some people (apparently including Gary Kelly) believe that AALPA was the party that was somewhat disingenuous in the negotiations, by stalling and then refusing to send out the first agreement for a vote, in an attempt to purposely run out the negotiation clock, to force an outcome that they thought would yield better results for them. You can't blame SWAPA for that.

Bubba

Fair enough Bubba. I'm not sure we had the numbers to pull off a US Air trick. As far as AAI ALPA stalling we will have to disagree. The validity of SLI 1 depends upon your frame of reference. We will never agree on the fairness and the outcome of this mess. We will have to get over it and move on. I was simply stating that there will be more pain and animosity on both sides in the future.

 

[General Lee]

Good point, because option 1, exactly how you stated it, worked out soooo well for US Air and America West, didn't it?

Bubba

Bubba,

You don't endorse how the Easties' handled things there, do you? That had never happened before, and likely won't go unpunished. And guess what? They now want to do an arbitrated SLI with AA. Wow! I'd suggest to the APA that they check to see if the USAPA clowns have their fingers crossed behind their backs during any handshake.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[dicko]

Many similarities between USAPA and SWAPA. I think one of the reasons GK backed SWAPA so hard was a fear that they would pull a USAPA if they didn't get their way in Arbitration.

 

[redflyer65]

You think option 2 will be better. Just wait until this is all said and done. Most if not all RSW fo's will be stagnant and the ones who grabbed the captain seats will get bounced from base to base as the AAI guys re-upgrade. The only way option one wouldn't be better would be if you guys pulled a US AIR. I'm not predicting how the SLI would have turned out in arbitration but I bet there would be less animosity.

I've seen this arguement before about the SW FOs getting hosed, be the reality is the agreement just replaced our senior FO's with your CA's (they just changed places). I knew I wouldn't have been above the AAI Captains, so in reality where is the harm?

 

[DUBLINFLYER]

I see this is turning into the usual SWA bashing - move on folks

 

[27 driver]

I've seen this arguement before about the SW FOs getting hosed, be the reality is the agreement just replaced our senior FO's with your CA's (they just changed places). I knew I wouldn't have been above the AAI Captains, so in reality where is the harm?

Never looked at it that way. Sounds better when you say it.

 

[SWA Bubba]

Bubba,

You don't endorse how the Easties' handled things there, do you? That had never happened before, and likely won't go unpunished. And guess what? They now want to do an arbitrated SLI with AA. Wow! I'd suggest to the APA that they check to see if the USAPA clowns have their fingers crossed behind their backs during any handshake.



Bye Bye---General Lee

No, of course I don't. That was the point of my sarcasm. While I don't spend as much energy as you on the subject (I'm not as big an FI guy as you in general), this is one of the things that you and I are in complete agreement on.

Bubba