Well, they're not quite gone by 2015, but this will become one slippery slope. Is there a possibility of the fragmentation policy kicking in and protecting some of the CA positions? By PCL 128's vague overview in another thread, there might be a possibility.
PCL was vague because statements have a way of coming back to bite you in litigation... I have to be vague for the same reason, even though I'm not on the NC anymore (transferred to Contract Compliance).
I don't mind stating facts that happened during negotiations, and as I've said before, the word "Sublease" might be problematic, but we'll see what the attorneys say, since I'm not attorney and didn't even stay at a HI Express last night.
The SWAPA and SWA announcements state that there will be jobs for those pilots at SWA without the possibility of furlough, but doesn't address the possibility that some pilots may be able to transfer to DAL. I doubt it will be brought up by DAL or DALPA till the TA is agreed upon (or ever), so what is the position of AirTran ALPA?
Well, from our MEC Chair's communique' of yesterday, it appears that the position of ALPA is that this changes the basis of the entire SIA. From the communique' from SWA management today, they don't see it the same way, stating that they believe this was "thoroughly discussed" during the SIA negotiations.
As I've said before, I don't disagree that it was discussed, but I disagree that anything was mentioned about the 717's going away. Quite the contrary, everything they focused on was the 717 CA seats and base options (TPA). It was one of the key selling points of the SIA, which SWA management officials attended and answered questions about.
We will see what happens... If a DAL employment option presented itself, it would probably go senior, depending on the terms and conditions. However, anything except starting over at the bottom of the DAL seniority list would have to be negotiated and voted on by both pilot groups, so that lessens the likelihood that it will be an option.
If you look at flat growth numbers (no more Classics retiring plus the existing -700/-800 delivery schedule) through 2013 and 2014 and the return of the deferred aircraft deliveries in 2015, there's positions for everyone without furloughs or anyone going to DAL, although the flying would get diluted a bit here and there during the transition.
As such, and without a magic 8-ball, I'd say the odds are that no pilots go to DAL, nothing gets done to alter the SIA, including pay or CA seats. Not my preference, of course, but not being involved in negotiations anymore nor privy to front-room conversations since the changeover in ALPA leadership, that's my educated guess.