Speculation on why NJA didn't make an NBAA announcement

[Pervis]

Unfortunatley, just like expected recall dates, I think business just isn't working out as well as they would like..

Beyond the initial excitement of some positive recall estimates. The truth still remains that they simply pushed recall back more than a year from expected in January 2010.

Everything I've heard about growth and recalls remains on the same schedule as origionally planned. We have stabilized and are profitable operationally for the first time-ever.

There were never any updated recall estimates. The year 2013 has always been the year forecast when we will actually see new aircraft arriving and start recalling pilots, not including the few Globals we'll get next year. It doesn't help those on the street right now-that sucks.

I have a feeling the growth we all seek will make a dramatic turn around starting in early November next year.

 

[imacdog]

There were never any updated recall estimates. The year 2013 has always been the year forecast when we will actually see new aircraft arriving and start recalling pilots, not including the few Globals we'll get next year. It doesn't help those on the street right now-that sucks.

Um, no, initial recall estimates were for mid-2012.

 

[Jack Campbell]

Everything I've heard about growth and recalls remains on the same schedule as origionally planned. We have stabilized and are profitable operationally for the first time-ever.

I've heard all plans were pushed BACK 1 year under Sokol. And I hear NJ is still shrinking - so says the union.

There were never any updated recall estimates. The year 2013 has always been the year forecast when we will actually see new aircraft arriving and start recalling pilots, not including the few Globals we'll get next year. It doesn't help those on the street right now-that sucks.

I have a feeling the growth we all seek will make a dramatic turn around starting in early November next year.

What are you basing this on, the election?

Comments in red.

 

[BentOver]

Everything I've heard about growth and recalls remains on the same schedule as origionally planned. We have stabilized and are profitable operationally for the first time-ever.

There were never any updated recall estimates. The year 2013 has always been the year forecast when we will actually see new aircraft arriving and start recalling pilots, not including the few Globals we'll get next year. It doesn't help those on the street right now-that sucks.

I have a feeling the growth we all seek will make a dramatic turn around starting in early November next year.

Unfortunately your assessment couldn't be farther from the reality.

The schedule concerning recalls has absolutely NOT remained the same..

1) Per our CERTIFIED LETTER.. the first recalls should have started around mid-2012... That is not and will not be the case. Based on our (and union) assessments. If the "new" schedule is accurate, the first recalls may start mid 2013. IF THEIR PLAN WORKS 100% perfect.

2) The most junior furloughee had an estimate of around mid-2014 for recall. Now the estimate is around 2016... Certainly NOT even close the the original plan. Again via our CERTIFIED LETTER.

3) 2013 has not, and never been, the original recall begin date. Nor has it ever been relayed to us as the start date for recalls. Only those furloughees hired during a certain timeframe had a expected recall date in the year 2013. VIA CERTIFIED LETTER to the furloughees.

4) The new and improved recall dates have not been advertised. Only a generalization of when they may be complete. No actual dates have been relayed (not even years). And those are based on a ton of furloughees NOT returning, and an increased attrition from active pilots (prob. SIC's heading to greener pastures).

4) I hope next year (2012) is a turning point. Thus far NJA is still losing customers at a rate higher than it's gaining them. This has been the case all along. Sokol didn't stop the bleeding. It has continued. The only thing that has stopped the bleeding down to a trickle is the stabilizing economy..if you can call it stabilized vs. 2008-2009.


Other than that, looking forward to the Globals, Phenoms, and a mid-cabin announcement... Just don't go extending and all will be good...

 

[GooseHZ]

Mabye its just that there was nothing to say?

 

[CE750Driver]

Mid and Super Mid announcement by Thanksgiving.

CL300 is in there.

That is all.

 

[Pervis]

Bent, I was fortunate to avoid that certified letter, so all I can base my memory on is what I've heard and hear in recurrent and on the road. It seems your sources have far more info than those of us still employed by Netjets though.

Jack, yes I meant the election. Regardless of political affiliation, perception today is one of extreme uncertainty, and a simple change may well unlock the cash many corporations and individuals are holding on to.

 

[Jack Campbell]

Bent, I was fortunate to avoid that certified letter, so all I can base my memory on is what I've heard and hear in recurrent and on the road. It seems your sources have far more info than those of us still employed by Netjets though.

Jack, yes I meant the election. Regardless of political affiliation, perception today is one of extreme uncertainty, and a simple change may well unlock the cash many corporations and individuals are holding on to.

Pervis, I'm glad you didn't get furloughed. I wouldn't wish this on anyone. As for the election, I can see the economy picking up only if Obama is made a 1 term president and the healthcare law is repealed. Maybe companies will hire then. Those 2 things are a big IF a year out of the election.

 

[imacdog]

Bent, I was fortunate to avoid that certified letter, so all I can base my memory on is what I've heard and hear in recurrent and on the road. It seems your sources have far more info than those of us still employed by Netjets though.

Jack, yes I meant the election. Regardless of political affiliation, perception today is one of extreme uncertainty, and a simple change may well unlock the cash many corporations and individuals are holding on to.

All of the information we have has been given to us by the union.

 

[BentOver]

Bent, I was fortunate to avoid that certified letter, so all I can base my memory on is what I've heard and hear in recurrent and on the road. It seems your sources have far more info than those of us still employed by Netjets though.

Jack, yes I meant the election. Regardless of political affiliation, perception today is one of extreme uncertainty, and a simple change may well unlock the cash many corporations and individuals are holding on to.

No problem, just wanted it known that we were indeed given "expected recall dates" before the furlough. Most were within a 2.5-4 year period... Now it appears the BEST we wil be able to do is a 3.5-5.5 year recall. Unfortunately that plan is dependant on certain attrition rates and permanent recall bypasses.

So although things may hopefully look up in the future. NJA still has a long way to go before gaining the trust of many. (business wise). I will never trust management,(5th company in 11 years kinda thing).

On the other hand, I've been involved in a furlough (9/11 induced) that seemed to have no hope, only to be recalled almost immediately one glorious afternoon out of no where. So I also won't be completely shocked if sometime next year or 2013 if things really ramp up.

 

[Pervis]

I hear ya Bent. I'm at that age where I don't think I could deal with starting over again, although I wouldn't be the first to do so. And I sincerely hope my optimism pans out for all concened, whichever company we work for.

 

[Jack Campbell]

Mid and Super Mid announcement by Thanksgiving.

CL300 is in there.

That is all.

Source?

 

[squonk]

Unfortunatley, just like expected recall dates, I think business just isn't working out as well as they would like..

Beyond the initial excitement of some positive recall estimates. The truth still remains that they simply pushed recall back more than a year from expected in January 2010.

Especially in Europe, very astute Bent. The international winds are blowing...will Netjets blow with them?

 

[CE750Driver]

Source?

Do you really think I'm dumb enough to post that?

 

[mtnrunner]

Net new on the ramp and crewed...

At the end of the day the only number that matters to pilots is net new whole airframes on the ramp and fully crewed.

By the end of 2011 NetJets will have lost about 150 aircraft from its fleet since 2009, not counting EJM which has added management aircraft. Sadly today NetJets still has roughly 75 more airplanes than it needs based on its existing customer base. Finally, NetJets appears to be losing at least one airplane worth of customers each month ... yes each and every month.

This share owner and aircraft data is all public and easily accessible. Most fractional, management, brokerage, and OEM companies track the data weekly/monthly. Industry analysts such as UBS package the data as well. These analysts must do so in order to evaluate and rate public companies in the supply-chain and EOM's.

The cold hard facts are out there. The only debate is whether the shrink [wrap] plan is due to lackluster management, driven by Berkshire's ownership, or both (ownership installs lackluster management to ensure shrinkage and containment.)

Clearly with Dichter's departure among many others and the catering, fuel, hotel guy in charge of sales, marketing, and service - sales are not the priority. I have heard too many significant customer jokes about the attorney, so I won't even bother with that one.

At the end of the day making faux OEM deals for purchase pricing and options doesn't get it done. Trade-ins can be a method of disposing of older aircraft in a favorable way to a company's balance-sheet for financial reporting purposes; at least temporarily. But for pilots it's all about sales and execution. These are faux new deals because nobody (including OEM's) has confidence in sales ... execution (operations) due to a great pilot force is top notch and the best thing going. If you were an OEM would you invest and partner with a Santulli or the attorney? OEM's and parent companies had great confidence Santulli would deliver based on the OEM's risk and he did for decades ... now they should bet on the attorney and fuel guy? Come on ... too many know better.

If sales were the priority it should have [truly] been team Dichter if it couldn't have been team Santulli. Lets all be open and honest about that.

For the shareholders leadership should install the best management team. That management team must deliver (to plan) or be replaced. Yet I suspect the byproducts of a lackluster management team are already in motion... and threats of order cancellation, layoff's, and furloughs are inevitable in search for concessions. If a management team can't deliver sales... maybe they can deliver concessions.

All the facts are there, it's just a matter of objectively evaluating them and confronting the reality. If I'm not mistaken many pilots at NetJets thought the company ownership and management would do the right thing in 2004. Then they were incensed afterwards. Enter Sokol in 2009 and now... who exactly?

All just one more opinion for pile.