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Delta to retire 7600 pilots in next 15 years, SWA 2250??

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On Your Six

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2004
Posts
4,507
DATE:20/04/11
SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence news
WATS 2011: Delta ponders pilot sources
By John Croft


Delta Air Lines is considering a "blue sky" theory for how to meet future pilot demands. Called "CAPT," for Civil Airline Pilot Training programme, the carrier stresses the idea is conceptual in nature and that it is not committed to the implementation, nor is it engaged in discussions with potential sponsors.

Speaking at the World Aviation Training conference in Orlando, Florida on 19 April, Arnie Kraby, Delta's manager of pilot selection, said a dramatic pilot shortage is a "gathering storm" that industry must address. Delta alone in the next 15 years will lose 7,600 pilots who will reach age-65 and retire, says Kraby.

CAPT would mainly look to high-tier college aviation programmes as means of cultivating pilots. "Statistical data indicates that a quality college education from a top-tier university or college provides us with a much better pilot in terms of fewer training failures, overall performance and reliability," notes Kraby.

The programme would include advanced jet aircraft simulation training and would be on par with military training, which produces skilled pilots qualified to fly high-performance aircraft in a shorter period compared with the civil sector, says Kraby. He is a former US Air Force pilot who flew Delta aircraft for 38 years,

"First we need to educate, mentor and train students," says Kraby. The CAPT programme would invite stakeholders across industry to come onboard as sponsors and jointly work out solutions. One of the first goals would be to build an outreach programme focused on middle- and high schools in an effort to stir up enthusiasm for the pilot profession.
CAPT candidates would be carefully screened to choose only those who have skills necessary to become a pilot. The candidate would have to maintain a 2.75 GPA, and 3.0 GPA for aviation courses. Upon earning a degree, the candidate would be required stay on as CAPT member and accrue 1,000 hours as a flight instructor at the university, thus providing a stable workforce for the school and to acquire FAA-required flight hours.
Graduates of the programme would be guaranteed an interview at a sponsoring regional airline.

Then, after meeting regional airline requirements and logging required number of hours for a mainline slot (Delta requires 1,200 hours), CAPT would offer an interview at a major airline sponsor-- "another light at the end of the tunnel", says Kraby.

With aviation training costs running $80,000-$100,000, Kraby stresses: "We've [industry] got to provide financial assistance for students if we are to get the [pilot] numbers." The programme might require that student loans be guaranteed by the sponsoring organisation. Another solution might be to have loans reduced by 5% per year up to a maximum of 50% for each year the candidate works for a sponsoring airline.





How many will retire exactly at age 65? How many will medical out first, earlier? Most senior ex-NWA pilots have full pensions, so they may wait for age 62 to try to get some Social Security (what's left anyway). Not everyone will go to 65. GUP over at SWA said they have about 150 scheduled retirements per year coming up here, and we all know AT is a fairly young group. Which airline will have stagnation, and which will provide faster upgrades and career progression? The lower pay currently at DL will not be around forever, especially if the AT guys do get those SWA payrates. Something to ponder.


OYS
 
General, you're making an absolute fool of yourself. Give it a rest. We understand you like Delta. Its a fine place. So is SWA.
 
OYS,

Are you justifying taking the job at Mother? It's cool with us. You have our blessing.

I can't WAIT to read on FI when you tell us about your Captain upgrade trip to Rio in the 787 with 9 hot flight attendants and a caviar snack for Top of Descent. Being the skipper again will remind you of your days in The Unit when you were ******************** hot. It'll be like re-igniting the AB in the F-teen over Poontang.

Good times.

Gup
 
"Another solution might be to have loans reduced by 5% per year up to a maximum of 50% for each year the candidate works for a sponsoring airline."

Even at only 80K, I think the math would be as follows for only a 5% reduction(I interpret their intentions "up to a maximum of 50%", being the total value of the loan not the yearly reduction):

yr 1) 80,000/1.04= 76,923

yr 2) 76,923/1.04= 73,964

yr 3) 73,964/1.04= 71,119

yr 4) 71,119/1.04= 68,384

yr 5) 68384/1.04= 65,754

etc...

They're gonna have to do better than that!


 
OYSIX,

Looks like you are in the right spot. Just please stay there.
 
OYS,

Are you justifying taking the job at Mother? It's cool with us. You have our blessing.

I can't WAIT to read on FI when you tell us about your Captain upgrade trip to Rio in the 787 with 9 hot flight attendants and a caviar snack for Top of Descent. Being the skipper again will remind you of your days in The Unit when you were ******************** hot. It'll be like re-igniting the AB in the F-teen over Poontang.

Good times.

Gup


But Redflyer says you're going to do all of that SOON in your 737s, right? That's what GK sorta told you guys, correct? Sorta?


OYS
 
congress will just raise the retirement age to 70...why is it we never find a way to solve problems, but just add them up and pass them along for the next guy to solve?
 
St. Paul will help with that one.
 
But Redflyer says you're going to do all of that SOON in your 737s, right? That's what GK sorta told you guys, correct? Sorta?


OYS

Do you seriously think Southwest will be a domestic carrier forever? If you do, then you have your head in the sand.

NO it won't be with just the 737, I see another fleet type eventually. Meaning we will most likely have two fleets types instead of NINE!



Gup my man you nailed it...

Justifying were he went, or the Riverboat jacket is a little tight.

RF
 
Last edited:
OYS,

You have been around long enough in this business to know that we are all just one 1) Oil spike, 2) Natural disaster 3) terrorist act 4) Crash (god forbid) 5) merger away from career stagnation. I hope you upgrade soon (if u are not), many of us will never get there...
 
I haven't a clue if a "pilot shortage" will materialize or not. I suspect not, but who knows.

But only airline management could screw up the good deal they have had for the past 4 decades. They have had a pilot oversupply so bad that they actually had guys not only paying for their entire education and flight training, but then paying for interviews and their first regional airline job (ala Comair, ASA, etc.).

Now, they're starting to sweat even getting enough mainline pilots to fill their rosters in future years. What a bunch of morons. They steal pensions, come to pilots for pay cuts anytime a Middle East dictator sneezes, treat their pilots like crap, threaten to outsource the only pilot jobs with having, drag out contract negotiations for years, drag their pilots into court in federal lawsuits, pay them poverty level wages for years in the beginning of their careers, treat them like crap with sick leave monitoring and "visits" to the chief pilot's office when the exercise their Captain's authority, then $*%#* wonder where their future pilots are going to come from?

And now they want to do an "outreach" to middle school and high school students? During the outreach, are they going to mention the above? If I find out they are going to "outreach" to any middle school or high school in my area, I am going to volunteer to "outreach" on that same day.

Hey airline management! Read paragraph three, do the exact opposite of everything listed in there, and you will have ALL the pilots you need for a very long time. Until then, you will reap what you have sown for the past 40 years, particularly the last 10 years.
 
Well done, ualdriver. I expect to see some pressure on politicians for foreign-worker visas in the next few years if a true shortage comes to pass. Parallels to the nursing situation profession abound.
 
Being the skipper again will remind you of your days in The Unit when you were ******************** hot. It'll be like re-igniting the AB in the F-teen over Poontang.

Good times.

Gup


Saved for posterity!

Good one, Gup

:laugh:
 

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