Questions for Republic guys

[starchkr]

RobCat,

If you are a RAH pilot, that is the response we are all looking for. If we cant kill you, we'll all be behind you. I mean that sort of tongue in cheek like.

Thanks

Also: Are all of the RAH carriers under the same contract? When are they (or is it) up for section ?

No we are not "all" under the same contract. The F9 contract extends for 5 more years as approved by BB and RAH. After that we'll see, hopefully the rest of the company will finally stand up for pay that is worthy of the aircraft they fly.

 

[crj567]

I am thinking of a bit more immediate threat:

RAH is buying all sorts of new planes, and trying to expand. Meanwhile, AirTran and Delta especially are doing their best to throw as many of their flight on as many of RAH's routes as possible-and you can bet every ticket RAH sells will be matched or undercut by both these majors.

Now, considering all the friends and familty Midwest people had around that area, and how pissed off all these people are, it would appear that RAH is not creating a great first impression. Would you buy a ticket on these guys if your friend or relative had just told you about losing their job to some 23 year old who makes less than half what the Midwest pilot did? I doubt it-especially when you can fly on Delta or AirTran for the same or less.

Expansion is expensive, new planes are expensive, and all this competition has to be bleeding potential revenue. Does anyone think RAH can stay afloat very long without more happy campers? I think RAH will run into a cash problem very quickly, their branded ops are only about 75% full-not a good load factor by any standard.

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20091207005786&newsLang=en

-Pissing all over the local icon and firing everyone is no way to start a successful airline.

 

[Corbon]

I am thinking of a bit more immediate threat:

RAH is buying all sorts of new planes, and trying to expand. Meanwhile, AirTran and Delta especially are doing their best to throw as many of their flight on as many of RAH's routes as possible-and you can bet every ticket RAH sells will be matched or undercut by both these majors.

Now, considering all the friends and familty Midwest people had around that area, and how pissed off all these people are, it would appear that RAH is not creating a great first impression. Would you buy a ticket on these guys if your friend or relative had just told you about losing their job to some 23 year old who makes less than half what the Midwest pilot did? I doubt it-especially when you can fly on Delta or AirTran for the same or less.

Expansion is expensive, new planes are expensive, and all this competition has to be bleeding potential revenue. Does anyone think RAH can stay afloat very long without more happy campers? I think RAH will run into a cash problem very quickly, their branded ops are only about 75% full-not a good load factor by any standard.

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20091207005786&newsLang=en

-Pissing all over the local icon and firing everyone is no way to start a successful airline.

From your article:
"Load factor on branded operations was 77.9%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from combined operations at Frontier and Midwest in November 2008"

And from here:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airtran-airways-reports-november-traffic-78319357.htmlhttp://http://www.prnewswire.com/ne...irways-reports-november-traffic-78319357.html

It says Airtrans load factor increased .9 points from 75.8% to 76.7% during the same period.

So what other made-up fantasies do you have about our impending doom?

I suppose you think that a 100% load factor automatically means you're making money, right?

 

[Going2Baja]

Are we really considering Republic a Major? Maybe a LCC, but really a Regional.

Baja.

 

[crj567]

From your article:
"Load factor on branded operations was 77.9%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from combined operations at Frontier and Midwest in November 2008"

And from here:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airtran-airways-reports-november-traffic-78319357.htmlhttp://http://www.prnewswire.com/ne...irways-reports-november-traffic-78319357.html

It says Airtrans load factor increased .9 points from 75.8% to 76.7% during the same period.

So what other made-up fantasies do you have about our impending doom?

I suppose you think that a 100% load factor automatically means you're making money, right?

We shall see....

 

[trainer8]

1. When are your respective contracts amendable?

2. Considering that the "commuters" are no longer a short stop on your way to a career at a "major" are you going to demand pay worthy of someone who safely hauls thousands of men women and children around the world? Something on the order of +/- 100k for mid level FOs, +/- 200k for mid level Captains? Will you tell the company to pound sand until you get what you deserve?

32K base for 3yr FO and 62K base for 6yr captain is obscene. (Republic pay from APC) Im sure I do not have to point that out.

You guys need to realize that you'll not likely be moving on from Chataqua/Shuttle/Rep etc. to a major like you probably planned. Your airline is moving in, in its entirety, and bringing you with it.

I mean no disrespect but you need to tow the line and demand fair compensation. This affects us all. The future viability of this career depends on it.

Thanks in advance for your replies.

Nice....

Old Chinese proverb: "Never....never cut off the nose of an opponent, and then ask him to smell a rose."

You do mean to disrespect. The condescension in your post is dripping, not worthy of a reply.

T8.....one of the "kids", now.

 

[bluefin]

Are we really considering Republic a Major? Maybe a LCC, but really a Regional.

Baja.

There is no such thing as a "regional" anymore. These guys are now mainline and the future of the industry. They are killing real mainline jobs and is a serious situation that needs to be addressed by "majors". A majority of furloughed pilots at "majors" is the result of these "regionals"

 

[StaySeated]

Hopfully, none of this will matter.

Delta, AirTran and everyone else is throwing everything at these guys-including the kitchen sink. I think it will be very difficult for Republic to survive more than a year or two-especially after DAL and United stop giving them connection business.

Any new airline's survival is an uphill battle, even in the best of times. These days, the big guys (especially AirTran) will try very hard to kill Republic. I think their chances of doing so are excellent. Many people at Republic have no idea how vulnerable they really are.

I hate to see people lose their jobs, but to see what has become of Midwest pilots makes me far, far less sympathetic toward these kids....

First, the current contract at RAH is meaningless in my opinion. If and when the SLI is completed, there will be a new representation drive at RAH and the IBT will be gone in a heartbeat. After a new union is voted in we will have to negotiate an entirely new contract. FAPA has done a pretty phenomenal job over the past decade during their negotiations. Two very good Section 6 negotiations, two rounds of BK negotiations, an additional exit agreement, and now an SLI negotiation. I would argue that the FAPA leadership is the most experienced and effective bargaining unit in the country. The current RAH CBA and the current FAPA CBA will remain in effect until a new CBA is negotiated at RAH.

Second, the DAL ASA states that if DAL cancels the agreement, they also must assume the aircraft. I don't think DAL wants to assume the debt on 50+ ERJ's.

The CAL agreement will probably die on the vine, but RAH's growth in the branded ops will essentially even out the loss of the 50 seaters.

RAH's branded flying is a formidable one. F9's CASM is 2nd only to Airtran, and RAH now has the ability to deploy 70-160 seats as they see fit. Airtran was going to lose market share overnight at MKE, so they entered into an agreement with Skywest to fly 50 seaters. The CRJ's are dinosaurs in this revenue environment, and flying a 50 seater out of milwaukee is exactly what you refer to as "throwing everything at these guys". That is otherwise known as desperation to prevent the loss of market share, and it isn't working.

I am not a fan of BB, but he has executed this entire circus acquisition about as successfully as can be imagined. The "branded" operation at RAH is obviously his future plan.

 

[shearedshaft]

I would argue that the FAPA leadership is the most experienced and effective bargaining unit in the country.

I would argue that you sound like you're on crack.

Print out this statement, pin it to the wall over your desk, because we'll be coming back to this statement when the walls come tumbling down around you.

It's a weird alternate-reality that you FAPA guys are in.

You think that you'll be able to get the Teamsters off your back because you guys are such a superior pilot group with a superior union that the other RJ folks aren't going to take your Airbuses from you.

As I said, make a note, because we'll come back and re-visit as the ink turns red and the Teamsters don't just file out of the door quietly.

 

[aewanabe]

The RAH contract was amenable in October 2007. Current E-Jet rates in that contract were negotiated in 2003, when CHQ was the only RAH carrier and flew only the E145 family.

 

[shearedshaft]

I am not a fan of BB, but he has executed this entire circus acquisition about as successfully as can be imagined. The "branded" operation at RAH is obviously his future plan.

Bryan Bedford also is on record begging for government relief from the "Major airline bullies that underprice their product". Methinks you guys are just starting to feel the pain of having everything thrown at you.

You guys need EDIT: $3 billion (actually $425 million) in cash to be out of range of bankruptcy. You have $110 million. So all you need is to multiply your cash reserves by EDIT: THIRTY (actually four) and you'll have a fine competitive place.

And good luck with that.

(edited for oopsies)

 

[StaySeated]

I would argue that you sound like you're on crack.

Print out this statement, pin it to the wall over your desk, because we'll be coming back to this statement when the walls come tumbling down around you.

It's a weird alternate-reality that you FAPA guys are in.

You think that you'll be able to get the Teamsters off your back because you guys are such a superior pilot group with a superior union that the other RJ folks aren't going to take your Airbuses from you.

As I said, make a note, because we'll come back and re-visit as the ink turns red and the Teamsters don't just file out of the door quietly.

Obviously I am biased, as are you. You will notice that I didn't say anything about the "pilot group" or "superiority". I cleared referenced the union leaders.

If you want to make an objective assessment, take a look at each party's CBA. Another analysis would be to ask the membership how happy they are with their representation. After speaking with several of my new co-workers, I have never heard one good thing about the IBT. Not one. Your tone is pretty abrasive. I am not sure if this is a soft spot with you, or if you are a member of the EXCO, or if you just don't know how to play well with others. Regardless, re-read my post. I was simply stating that there will need to be a new CBA negotiated, and that FAPA has been very successful in their negotiations.

 

[StaySeated]

Bryan Bedford also is on record begging for government relief from the "Major airline bullies that underprice their product". Methinks you guys are just starting to feel the pain of having everything thrown at you.

You guys need $3 billion in cash to be out of range of bankruptcy. You have $110 million. So all you need is to multiply your cash reserves by THIRTY and you'll have a fine competitive place.

And good luck with that.

I am glad I was able to quote this before you edit. According to you the new benchmark for BK is TWICE TTM REVENUE in unrestricted cash!!! Uh OH! You have just doomed 99.99% of every company in the US.

He who walks with the wise grows wise, 

but a companion of fools suffers harm.
Proverbs 13:20

I will step away now...

 

[shearedshaft]

The cash reserves was from the most recent Bedford interview, I didn't make it up, it came from your CEO, who you say is doing everything right.

Even the WSJ calls Republic "thinly capitalized".

If you like, I'll dig up the quote.

In terms of the Teamsters, I think they are awful, but they don't have the same conflicts of interest that ALPA has when it comes to representing majors versus branded commuters. ALPA can be awful too. Independents can be fine, but if you've been around the block, you'll realize that the Teamsters hang on with fangs to any decertification effort, ask UPS, ask ATA and a handful of other unions that finally tossed them off their back.

The idea that FAPA will suddenly be recognized as great and beautiful and a great replacement is very naive. The Teamsters will tie you up. They've done it before, they'll do it again. They do NOT want to lose the dues.

 

[shearedshaft]

Here we go (from the recent interview):

Another question frequently asked of the company is how it thinks about cash and what it needs to operate the company. “For the fixed-fee business we use a metric of about 10% of trailing 12-month revenue which is about USD100 million. I could argue it is lower because it is a stable business which produces a consistent cash flow. On the branded business, if you want to say 20% is a more acceptable amount of trailing revenues, that’s an additional USD340 million for a total about USD450 million. That USD325 million is short of that so clearly we want to build cash revenues in 2010."